NIGERIA: PICK ME FOR PRESIDENT, OK HOW ABOUT VICE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000507

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PICK ME FOR PRESIDENT, OK HOW ABOUT VICE
PRESIDENT?

REF: ABUJA 458

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: Governors Odili and Alamieyeseigha
representing Rivers and Bayelsa states respectively, harbor
unrealistic presidential aspirations, but are contenders for
the Vice Presidential slot. Though President Obasanjo has
cooled somewhat towards Odili following the governor's
failure to keep violence under control, Odili is still a
strong presidential ally in the South-South. Alamieyeseigha,
the sole Ijaw governor in Nigeria, has been criss-crossing
the country in a bid to increase his national recognition and
credibility. Presidential candidates Atiku Abubabakar
(Atiku) and Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) are courting
Alamieyeseigha as a running mate and IBB is also talking to
Odili. Neither Odili nor Alamieyeseigha enjoy national
support and Odili would be hard-pressed to carry even his own
state, were there fair and transparent elections. However,
with their large bankrolls from corruption, both governors
fit nicely into Nigeria's "selection" paradigm and are
political actors to watch in the run-up to 2007. End Summary.

South-South Dreams of President, but VP Slot More Likely
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2. (C) In a recent meeting, Rivers State Governor Odili
stressed the South-South was not bound by the "gentlemen's
agreement" zoning the presidency to the North in 2007
(reftel). Odili declared the south-south "deserves" the
presidency and there is no signed piece of paper ceding the
top leadership spot to the North. He added that PDP Chair of
the Board of Trustees Tony Anenih did not have the "right" to
decide the presidency would go to the North. Odili raised the
familiar claim of the historical underrepresentation of the
Niger Delta in senior national politics as justification for
a south-south president in 2007. Their absence from national
politics is particularly "galling", given the economic import
of the region, Odili opined. Asked whether the VP slot in
2007 would suffice, Odili replied negatively, querying, "Why
should we settle?"


3. (SBU) Bayelsa State government representatives echoed the
refrain that the South-South would not be appeased by the VP
nod. State officials proffered the same reasons Odili did
and added the ethnic card -- Not only should Nigeria's next
president be from the South- South, he should be Ijaw, the
majority ethnic group in the Niger Delta. Bayelsa State
Secretary General Steve Azaiki told us Alamieyeseigha was on

SIPDIS
a campaign to build national credibility. Azaiki drew our
attention to Alamieyeseigha's "turbaning" -- the granting of
an honorific title -- in VP Atiku's northern stronghold,
Katsina. (Note: While Atiku is from Adamawa, he considers
Katsina part of his base because Katsina was the home of the
late General Shehu Yar Adua from whom Atiku inherited the
leadership of the PDM faction within the PDP.)
Alamieyeseigha has also made several recent public speeches,
emphasizing the need for "true federalism." Finally the
governor continues to advance infrastructure projects in
Bayelsa. This showed, Azaiki boasted, the governor was
"serious" about 2007.

Comment: On March 12, Alamieyeseigha and Governor Orji Kalu
of Abia state received titles from the Emir of Katsina at a
ceremony attended by the Vice President and the governors of
Adamawa, Katsina and Delta states. The two governors became
only the second and third southerners to be turbaned; the
first was the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola. It is very likely
that this northern exposure did not come free of charge to
presidential wanna-be's Alamieyeseigha and Kalu.
Alamieyeseigha has publicly acknowledged donating computers
to the Islamic University in Katsina. We suspect that many
more "gifts" were proffered. End Comment.

Possible Match-Ups: IBB -Alamieyeseigha, IBB- Odili,
Atiku- Alamieyeseigha
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4. (C) Political insider Professor Ukande Damachi told us IBB
was looking at Alamieyeseigha as running mate. IBB is also
winking at Odili. He likes both governors because they have
large coffers with which to fund a national campaign. Odili
has the added attraction of being Obasanjo's man. IBB might
be calculating that having Odili at his side could make
Obasanjo less jittery about Babangida's efforts. On the
other hand, Alamieyeseigha is not in Obasanjo's good graces.
He is perceived as an Atiku man; however in the past several
months he has been somewhat less visible and vocal in support
of the Vice President.



5. (C) Atiku is "talking with" Alamieyeseigha according to
Bayelsa state officials. Despite believing the time is nigh
for an Ijaw president, the governor's chief political adviser
told us the vice presidency would be a "fine start" for the
Niger Delta peoples. In short, Alamieyeseigha may be
shooting for the top job in hopes of landing the second slot.

Home Support Weak for Odili,
Somewhat Stronger for Alamieyseigha
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6. (C) Governor Odili enjoys very little support in Rivers
(reftel). He is referred to derisively as "Governor
Donate-Us" for his penchant of donating lavishly to pet
projects. A rabid soccer fan, Odili has donated new cars,
millions of Niara, and even plots of land to high-performing
soccer players. Rivers State residents complain bitterly
that the governor's "philanthropy" is at odds with the
state's poor infrastructure, inadequate social services, and
high unemployment. Though the governor is widely believed
among Nigeria's most corrupt public officials, his closeness
with the President leads most to consider him "untouchable."


7. (C) Odili continues to face mini-eruptions from militant
Ijaw leader Dokobu Asari and other politicized gangs. This
week, for example, Asari and his boys staged a small protest
in Port Harcourt. Sources tell us Odili has failed to
implement fully the gun buy-back agreement brokered between
Asari and Obasanjo last fall. Under the terms of the
agreement, the government was to pay an average of Naira
200,000 ($1,500) per weapon -- a sum roundly criticized by
independent observers for being so generous as to encourage
future armed criminality. However it seem that Odili has not
paid in full. Making matters worse, it appears Asari did not
share the revenues he did receive from the buy-back program.


8. (C) By contrast, Alamieyeseigha enjoys some measure of
popular support. Bayelsa is an almost ethnically homogenous
Ijaw state. State residents support Alamieyeseigha because
they see him as the premier Ijaw elected political figure in
Nigeria. In addition, Alamieyeseigha has successfully
implemented some infrastructure projects -- though nothing
commensurate with the scale of oil revenues his state recoups
from the federal government. Alamieyeseigha too ranks in the
top-tier of reportedly corrupt public officials, according to
many observers.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The three main presidential contenders (Obasanjo,
Atiku and IBB) have promised positions to virtually every
governor in their efforts to secure support for their 2007
ambitions. While Odili and Alamieyeseigha are prominent
politicians from the increasingly important South-South
region, neither would garner much national support in a fair,
transparent, intimidation-free, electoral process. Both
governors are viewed as corrupt. Though there was political
thuggery throughout the country in the 2003 elections, the
violence and intimidation in Rivers State was particularly
bad. That said, the money hoarded from corruption will stand
Odili and Alamieyeseigha well if the presidential/vice
presidential campaign takes place under the Nigerian
"selection" paradigm.


10. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BROWNE