EXPELLED GOVERNOR BOASTS: I AM THE BEAUTIFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000472

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR EB/ESC/IEC/ENR
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2015
TAGS: KDEM KJUS NI PGOV PINS PREL
SUBJECT: EXPELLED GOVERNOR BOASTS: I AM THE BEAUTIFUL
BRIDE, WELL ADMIRED BY OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.4 (D & E)


1. (C) Summary. Anambra State Governor Chris Ngige met with
us days after being expelled from the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP). Ngige predicted that a growing army
of supporters as well as some disgruntled politicians would
move with him to the party of his choice, thus wresting
Anambra state from PDP control. He said other southern
governors were ready to leave the PDP but would likely remain
until the party's convention in November. Ngige strongly
intimated he would join the All Progressive Grand Alliance
(APGA) party. There has been ample press pointing to such a
decision but no formal announcement as of yet. His opponents
have continuously underestimated the resilience, guile and
the determination of Ngige. He has used his opponents' low
opinion of him to his advantage. Currently he is letting
himself be courted by all the opposition parties, yet has
committed to none. He will likely hold out until the last
minute. However his machination may not save his tenure - it
is an open secret that Obasanjo wants him gone. End Summary.


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Expulsion from PDP Was Not A Surprise
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2. (C) Trying to put a good face on a grave situation, the
governor said he expected the PDP expulsion. Although Ngige
has been expelled, he remains the Governor of Anambra State.
Some of his opponents within the party had incorrectly
thought his expulsion would require forfeiture of office.
APGA Special Advisor on Foreign Policy Onwuka Ukwa told us
that a PDP insider had informed him of plans hatched by some
PDP officials to have Ngige forcibly removed from the
Governor's mansion and institute judicial proceedings to
formally oust him from office. Apparently, the Minister of
Justice questioned this scenario by explaining there was no
constitutional or legal basis for Ngige's ejection.


3. (C) Ngige claimed the PDP leaders were threatened by his
growing popularity in Anambra. If they did not stop him now,
it would be difficult to stop his re-election in 2007. Ngige
further claimed the party's simultaneous expulsion of Anambra
troublemaker Chris Uba "was a smokescreen - The real target
is me." While this expulsion appears to be a good strategic
move, it will soon backfire with an exodus of PDP members in
Anambra to other parties. He boasted, "The people are the
source of power, and they are all with me. When I move, it
will be with 75% of the state - Anambra will be a one party
state". (Comment: There is a kernel of truth to what Ngige
says about his popularity. Several Nigerians, including a
few with no admiration for Ngige, have observed that he is
performing relatively well - paying salaries on time and
initiating road and other infrastructure improvements that
Anambra did not see under former Governor Mbadinuju. Ngige
does apparently have some genuine popularity in the state.
End Comment.)


4. (C) Searching for a new political home, by acting like he
is not searching for a new home, Ngige is being courted by a
faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA),the
All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),and the Alliance for
Democracy (AD). Responding to our question, Ngige intimated
he would join APGA, the predominantly Igbo party. Later
actions demonstrate this. Over the March 18-20 weekend,
Ngige feted embattled APGA Chair Chekwas Okorie in Anambra.
Ngige would love to join APGA because it would possibly kill
two birds with one stone. It would make him the most senior
elected official in the most popular party of the Southeast.
This would make him the Igbo equivalent to Lagos Governor
Tinubu and the AD party in the Southwest. Ngige would likely
steal a few pages from the Tinubu playbook by not only
exerting strong influence within the party but in also using
political patronage to gain influence in Ibgo social and
political organizations such as Ohaneze Ndigbo. Also by
joining APGA, he would hope to derail the electoral case
APGA's 2003 candidate Peter Obi has against him. However,
APGA is fractured and Ngige does not know if Okorie will
retain the chairmanship. Thus, the careful Ngige will not
publicly commit to APGA until sure that Okorie remains
chairman and can rein in Peter Obi.
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Disintegration of PDP
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5. (C) Ngige forecast the demise of the PDP party because
President Obasanjo is pushing his opponents to the wall. The
November PDP national convention will result in mass exodus
of prominent party members sidelined and alienated by
Obasanjo, Ngige predicted. Thus, opposition parties will
become stronger and capable of posing a major challenge to
PDP ,s dominance in national politics. Ngige said the
disintegration of the PDP is "as clear as daylight."


6. (C) After Ngige makes his move, he believes other
governors may leave the PDP and join him in the party he has
chosen. While most governors at odds with Obasanjo are in
their second term and superficially should not be too
concerned about 2007, they all have two big concerns, and
they do not have much to lose by jumping ship, he opined.
The governors want to cover their flanks by installing
favorable candidates so they can live comfortably as
ex-governors in their states. Also, he stated they fear
being probed by an adverse state or federal government.
However, all things being equal, 4/6 South-South and 4/5
South-East governors wanted to leave the PDP but are waiting
for the convention to see what VP Atiku does there.

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Ending the Commercialization of Politics
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7. (C) Governor Ngige congratulated himself about
improvements in Anambra - the roads, new civil service, and
that "after these four years in office, it will be difficult
for anyone to commercialize politics." Ngige said he has put
a rewards system in place that discourages people within his
government to resort to corrupt practices. Ngige attributed
his difficulties in Anambra State to his refusal to dance to
the tune of people he termed "commercialized political
investors". The posts of Commissioner, Special Advisor, and
Board of Directors have price tags between 10 and 12 million
naira (approximately USD 85,000). In this "transactional
relationship", those who did not secure these funds look to
borrow from "a godfather" and share the rewards of office
with him subsequently. Ngige vowed to end this practice.

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Comment
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8. (C) Ngige ironically portrays his leadership of Anambra
state as the model for democratic development, considering
his governorship was made possible through the same
"transactional relationship" he now condemns. Ngige's
description of political commercialization is well-informed.
Ngige does enjoy support in his home state, fueled by
infrastructure improvements and more efficient government.
His efforts in this regard are not entirely altruistic The
day his PDP expulsion was announced, Ngige awarded a N1.1
billion contract (approximately USD 8.5 million) to repair
roads in Onitsha, the state capital, in the attempt to shore
up support at the grassroots level.


9. (C) While the PDP expulsion does not impact Ngige's
tenure, it places him in political limbo. In Anambra, this
has its pros and cons. He is now an unrestricted free agent
who can go party shopping. Every opposition party that wants
to land another governor will love and offer support up to
the time he makes his decision public. Thus, it is in his
best interest to be coy as long as possible. At the end of
the day, joining APGA will serve his interest best provided
he can use the resources of his office to prop up APGA
Chairman Okorie and mute 2003 APGA candidate Obi. No matter
what or how well he does in Anambra, Ngige will always be on
the hot seat. Saddled with a pro-Atiku reputation and never
able to weaken the nexus between President Obasanjo and the
Uba clan, the President and PDP want Ngige out of Anambra.
If the PDP can have a meeting of the minds with APGA
candidate Obi, Ngige might discover that an adverse decision
by the electoral tribunal - which is susceptible to influence
- is in the offing.


10. (C) Some have asserted that the expulsion demonstrates
Ngige ,s ineptitude as a politician, as he could have easily
negotiated himself out of this mess. The expulsion will
undoubtedly affect the case that APGA has against him in the
election tribunal, even moreso if APGA candidate Peter Obi
links up with PDP. Without the PDP, some believe Ngige will
be forced out of office quickly. Others believe, including
Senator Ben Obi, that if Ngige can hang on he will enjoy wide
support in the upcoming local elections, and will bring, as
Ngige predicted, all of his supporters to his new party.
BROWNE