OBASANJO'S NEMESIS: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR TINUBU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000435

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR EB/ESC/IEC/ENR
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2015
TAGS: KDEM KJUS NI PGOV PINS PREL
SUBJECT: OBASANJO'S NEMESIS: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR TINUBU


Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for Reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)


1. (SBU) Summary. On February 23, the Ambassador met Lagos
State Governor Bola Tinubu who said that the federal
government's withholding of approximately USD 135 million of
accrued local government allocations for Lagos still has
disproportionately affected children, health care delivery,
transportation, and the environment. The federal government
has ignored a Supreme Court ruling to release these funds,
demonstrating contempt for the rule of law, said the
Governor. Tinubu scorned the National Political Reform
Conference, and said most delegates are "tools" of the
Obasanjo regime. Looking ahead to 2007, Tinubu predicted a
fracturing of the PDP and subsequent realignment between the
AD and other parties. Tinubu was unbridled in his criticism
of President Obasanjo -- his role in rigging the 2003
elections, the fallout from his peacekeeping activities, the
use of religion for political gain, and the North-South
divide that threatens national stability. In contrast, the
Governor proclaimed Lagos State an example of modernism,
capable of initiating pilot programs to encourage
transparency and foreign investment. End Summary.

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Lagos State Battles the Federal Government
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2. (C) In April, 2004, the Lagos State government increased
the number of local government councils from 20 to 57. Tinubu
said Lagos' population size justified the increase. Why
should states with much lower populations have the same
number of local councils as Lagos, and receive comparable
revenues, he queried. (Comment: The increase in local
government councils was politically popular in Lagos.
However, it is questionable whether the state followed the
procedure for establishing new local councils as provided for
in the constitution. In short, Lagos may have attempted to
rectify a legitimate concern, but in an incorrect manner.
Given the animus between Tinubu and President Obasanjo it was
predictable that the federal government would react adversely
to what Obasanjo would see as an arrogation of power by
Tinubu. End Comment.)


3. (SBU) The Government of Nigeria (GON) retaliated and has
since withheld funds for the local government councils -- now
an estimated N20 billion (approximately USD 153 million).
Lagos filed suit and in December 2004, the Supreme Court
ruled in favor of Lagos, ordering the GON to release the
funds, but only to the 20 councils recognized by the 1999
constitution. To date, the federal government has not
complied with the court order, in what Tinubu characterized
as contempt for the rule of law.


4. (C) Tinubu virulently criticized the unwillingness of the
federal government to release the funds stating, "our
constitutional democracy is being assaulted by the presidency
and the politicization of local government responsibilities
undermines the democratic system at its
very foundation." Tinubu?s criticisms are echoed by many
Lagosians, including members of the government and civil
society. One recently retired Supreme Court member stated
that even during military regimes, decisions by the highest
court were upheld. Tinubu called the continued withholding
of Lagos' statutory allocation a "negation of democracy."

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Fund Withholding Threatens Social Services in Lagos
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5. (SBU) Tinubu asserted that Lagos faces a huge shortfall in
revenues that "threatens the peace of the state." He
maintained that Lagos, at present, was only calm out of
deference and loyalty to him. "I am holding the state back
from anarchy ? but there is a limit to what I can do," he
said. Tinubu said primary school-aged children are most
affected by the lack of funds. With 120 to 1 student teacher
ratio in the public schools, Lagos State does not have the
means to hire additional teachers or rehabilitate schools.
Tinubu stated that while he has been working to eradicate
child labor, the economic pressures on families, combined
with the lack of good schools, pushes children into wage
earning activities. Lagos' local governments no longer have
the means to arrest the dropouts and provide alternatives or
incentives for school. Other sectors seriously affected by
the nonpayment are primary health care delivery and the
environment. Public hospitals are unable to pay salaries,
purchase supplies, or treat indigent patients, further
crippling an already weak system. With trash collection and
waste management the responsibility of local governments,
there is no funding to clean up the state, he said.


6. (C) When asked about the next step in this conflict,
Tinubu stated he was consulting the diplomatic community and
others within the government and civil society. (NOTE: A few
days after the Ambassador's meeting, Tinubu hosted the
Southern Governors Forum in Lagos. The thirteen governors
(or their representatives) attending the meeting signed a
petition on the withholding of funds from Lagos, agreeing to
intercede on behalf of the local governments to make the
issue a priority with the president. Thus far, there have
been no public concessions by the federal government.)

(Comment: We think Tinubu is overstating the fiscal impact of
the withheld local government council revenues. Lagos State
continues to receive its state allocation from the Federal
government and of all 36 states in the federation, it has the
highest internally generated revenues (IGRs). Lagos State
generates roughly 4 million Naira/month in IGR and receives
an additional estimated 3.3 million Naira/month from the
federal government as its state allocation. The withheld
local government council revenues are approximately 2.4
million Naira/month. Separately, the Chair of the Finance
Committee in the Lagos State House of Representatives
confided to us that the State has enough money to cover
recurring costs, implement capital projects, and provide
social services as usual. A private economic consultant
echoed this view.

Comment Continued: The real issue is that local government
revenues are the "pork" that governors spread to shore up
their power base. Tinubu is no exception among governors in
this practice. However, as the sole AD governor in the
country, Tinubu really feels the political pinch when his
"pork" goes missing. Despite his public blustering against
Obasanjo, well-placed private sector contacts have told us
that Tinubu has "prostrated" himself before the president to
beg for the money, which still has not been forthcoming. In
the meantime, Tinubu has used these circumstances to bolster
his image, making public visits to accident victims in
hospitals and generating press coverage by declaring that the
state would treat the patients free of charge. End Comment.)

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Democratic Government or Civilian Dictatorship?
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7. (C) Tinubu denounced Obasanjo and his administration to
the Ambassador declaring, "civilian dictatorship has
emerged." He offered these examples: Obasanjo has disobeyed
the Supreme Court, terminated the chairman of the PDP party
at will, and surrounded himself with all ex-military
officers, such as his Chief of Staff, his National Security
Advisor, and in the State Security Service. Tinubu stated,
"The President is the Minister of Defense" and that officials
obey his every order ? "whatever Baba says." Tinubu
continued his diatribe saying, "the truth must be told: He
rigged the elections." In 2003, only Lagos was able to stop
the onslaught of the People's Democratic Party (PDP),Tinubu
declared, crediting the large presence of election observers
for his survival at the 2003 polls. He said, "Although they
had prepared results, they spared me."


8. (C) Tinubu disclosed the AD is looking to merge with
another party. Tinubu predicted the imminent demise of the
PDP. It could be initiated solely by an AD merger
announcement. He intimated that a fractured PDP would cause
some to move back to the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)
and others to join the AD. Tinubu said the president wants a
third term in office and a return to a parliamentary system
of government where his "club of elites" can control the
entire political landscape. Accusing Obasanjo of "killing
the opposition, like he is killing us", Tinubu contrasted
himself with the president by expressing support for a true
federalist system, and the checks and balances that make it
more accountable.

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Skeptical About Political Reforms Conference
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9. (C) Tinubu had little hope for the Political Reforms
Conference. The Pro-National Conference Organization
(PRONACO),headed by Wole Soyinka, should continue with their
parallel process to yield results that would force the
Conference to come up with something meaningful, he added.
Tinubu questioned, "Where are the agitators?" insinuating
that conference delegates were selected only to support the
presidential line and that, "They will be dismissed as soon
as (the President) does not like what he sees." Tinubu
argued that the Conference is not an
initiative from the people. A statement from the president
is not a sufficient framework for the process, nor does it
set the parameters of the dialogue. Tinubu recommended that
the Conference address the role of the court and the
ratification process for the conference recommendations.
Tinubu bluntly stated that the Political Reform Conference
does not meet the requirement of a sovereign conference.

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Uncensored Criticism of Obasanjo
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10. (C) When the Ambassador rejoined that during Obasanjo's
tenure, Nigeria's international reputation had improved,
Tinubu refused to concede any achievements to the president.
Concerning Nigeria's role in helping to resolve regional
conflicts, Tinubu stated, "after Abacha, any president would
have done it - it is democracy at work, not Obasanjo."
Tinubu complained that while the president is busy keeping
peace in Liberia, Sudan and Sierra Leone, Lagos State has to
deal with the onslaught of refugees. Those who live in
shanties, drive okadas (the motorbikes used for public
transportation),and sleep on the streets are not all
Nigerian, he claimed. "They have come to Lagos and are
messing my environment up." Lagos is taking the brunt of the
international peacekeeping burden, and "not getting anything
for it."


11. (C) Tinubu claimed Obasanjo has made Nigeria's
international reputation worse by his actions at home,
particularly because he "so brazenly rigged the 2003
elections." Tinubu challenged that to be a role model and a
great leader, Obasanjo should honor the court of appeals
judgment and order a fresh election. He accused the Obasanjo
administration of using religious sentiment to keep people
from economic revolt, and purposefully keeping the North
illiterate and uneducated because, "they do not ask for
accountability - education would cause revolution." He
further criticized Obasanjo for being indirectly responsible
for the introduction of Shari'a law in the North. After the
Kano State governor did not win the state for PDP in the 2003
elections, Obasanjo wanted the victor eliminated. But the
newly-elected governor outfoxed the president by instituting
Shari'a as a strategy for "political survival," thus, holding
on to power and increasing his popularity.

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Lagos Exemplifies Modernity
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12. (SBU) Tinubu boasted that Lagos is more modern than the
rest of Nigeria and has been actively pursuing this goal.
"It is the only economy that is working in the country,
despite all the odds against it." Governance in Lagos is
complicated by its opposition at the federal level and an
exploding population, fueled by ongoing migration from the
villages and immigration from neighboring states. (NOTE: The
population of Lagos State is currently estimated at 15
million.) Tinubu expressed pride in the reforms he has
initiated and the technocrats who make up "the best cabinet
in the country." Tinubu discussed the obstruction of state
contracts caused by federal demand for bribes. He lamented
the resulting breakdown of negotiations on a project that
would have provided 1000 megawatts of power to Lagos. Tinubu
referred to his US-based education and job experience
providing him an understanding of foreign direct investment
and stipulations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The
federal government does not respect these fundamentals, thus
failing to establish a climate for long-term investment in
Nigeria.


13. (U) Tinubu expressed the desire for an economic summit
with an organized private sector and strengthening the
economy through decentralization. He suggested a program
that uses states as models to initiate pilot programs on
transparency. Tinubu welcomed the USG assistance on
HIV/AIDS, asserting good health and education are the
bedrocks of democracy.


14. (C) COMMENT. Private sector contacts are not bullish on
the Lagos economy and many claim that they have been
requested to contribute to the governor in order to have
projects move forward. However, they say, corruption is
relative, and Tinubu does not rank among Nigeria's most
notoriously corrupt governors. End Comment.

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Bio Note
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15. (U) Tinubu, a devout Muslim from an all-Yoruba family, is
married to a Christian. He has personal ties to the U.S. and
worked with Deloitte and Touche in Chicago. In the 1990s, he
returned to Nigeria where he worked with Mobil Oil.
BROWNE