ADDITIONAL 3RD TERM INDICATORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001893

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: ADDITIONAL 3RD TERM INDICATORS


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)


1. (C) In a November conversation with the Consul General,
Ugo Okafor of GoodWorks International LLC (strictly protect)
said that indications point to President Obasanjo wanting a
third term. GoodWorks is the advisory firm founded by
Ambassador Andrew Young, who has a long, convivial
relationship with President Obasanjo. Okafor maintained that
Ambassador Young was not enamored by the idea of a third term
bid. Andrew Young himself might visit Nigeria in an attempt
to dissuade the President from this course, but Okafor held
scant hope that the momentum pushing Obasanjo toward a third
term bid could be reversed. Okafor asserted that some of
this momentum was from aides and supporters around Obasanjo.
However, Obasanjo was not someone who allowed others to order
his steps in ways he did not approve. Obasanjo personally
wanted this, Okafor believed.


2. (C) Okafor added that late First Lady Stella Obasanjo had
been a moderating force within the Villa. She was one of the
very few people who could disagree with him and make him
listen. Okafor predicted that we will see an even tougher
Obasanjo in 2006 now that Stella's moderating influence is
gone. His third term aspirations may not be the toughest
political challenge facing Obasanjo, Okafor remarked. The
First Lady's death has precipitated a level of palace and
familial intrigue usually the reserve of monarchs. According
to Okafor, the President has four former wives and
thirty-five children. Stella's death has triggered a
significant number of family members seeking to improve their
own station and status. The machinations have been intense
and time-consuming. Okafor gauged that Obasanjo spent at
least two hours daily personally handling the intricate
details of these familial intrigues.


3. (C) Comment: Okafor echoes a number of sources -
Obasanjo wants a third term. And while the President's
family matters may seem a distraction, these are the types of
challenges Obasanjo seems to enjoy. Instead of enervating
him, they may in fact be helping to energize him. It appears
that he has his hands full both personally and politically
but it also seems like he would not have things any other way
for now. End Comment.
BROWNE