TROOPS, LEGAL ACTIONS INCREASE BAYELSA TENSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001811

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: TROOPS, LEGAL ACTIONS INCREASE BAYELSA TENSION


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Summary: Yenagoa, the Bayelsa State Capital, is the
site of a quiet but increasingly tense political standoff.
While Governor Alamieyeseigha is going through the motions of
normal operations, he is being guarded and supported by
scores of armed Ijaw irregulars. Meanwhile, up to 1,000
Federal troops deployed around Yenagoa on Monday.
Demonstrations for and against Governor Alamieyeseigha
continued. Developments on the legal front also contributed
to the stress level in the state, with conflicting reports
regarding coercion by the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC) in obtaining necessary endorsement of State
Assembly members for the Governor's impeachment. The
Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences
Commission (ICPC) also launched a new investigation into
alleged misdeeds by the Governor. Predictably, the Federal
Government has apparently frozen Bayelsa's monthly revenue
allocation. The increased visibility of weapons and the
possible drying up of funds adds to the unease in Bayelsa.
Both sides need to tread delicately for a wrong step could
spark actual unrest in the oil producing state. End summary.

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FEDERAL TROOPS DEPLOYED IN YENAGOA
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2. (U) Tension escalated yesterday as the Federal Government
deployed troops in Yenagoa, capital of Bayelsa State,
reportedly to maintain order. Up to 1,000 troops from the
Joint Military Task Force in the Niger Delta, supporting
Operation Restore Hope, were deployed around key state and
local government buildings. Machine guns were setup at
strategic locations, while helicopters hovered overhead.
Protests for and against Alamieyeseigha continued despite the
presence of the troops. State officials allege the troops
were deployed to promote unrest and provide an excuse for the
Federal Government to declare a state of emergency.

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CONFLICTING IMPEACHMENT ACCOUNTS, NEW LEGAL ACTION CLOUD
GOVERNOR'S POSITION
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3. (C) There were conflicting reports regarding the Bayelsa
State House's impeachment notice delivered to the Governor
last week. Nine assemblymen of the twenty-four have
distanced themselves from the charges. One assemblyman who
changed his position, Nimbofa Ayaowei, charged members were
coerced by EFCC threats of possible criminal action against
them into endorsing the impeachment effort. Ayaowei claims
he was jailed before agreeing to the impeachment. Bayelsa
State House Speaker Peremobowei Ebebi disputes Ayaowei's
account and contends that members were never threatened by
the EFCC. (Comment: While the charges of coercion are
disputed, this is not the first time the EFCC has been
subject to such allegations. Whether correctly or not, the
EFCC's image is being tarnished by the growing perception
that it has become Obasanjo's favorite instrument with which
to hammer his political opponents. End comment.)


4. (U) Previously Ebebi reported seventeen members had
endorsed the notice. However, the latest count shows fifteen
members in support, nine opposed. For the impeachment to
carry, a two-thirds majority, or sixteen members, is needed.
Additionally, Emmanuel Igoniwari, Chief Judge of Bayelsa
State, who would be tasked with naming the seven member panel
to investigate the impeachment charges, has reportedly fled
Yenagoa out of safety concerns. In short, the ultimate
outcome of the impeachment proceedings is uncertain. Much
will depend on whether the Federal Government or Bayelsa
Government can outdo the other in the amount of pressure
placed on these hapless assembly members, who never dreamed
that they would be at the center of such a drama.


5. (U) Following a ruling by the Federal High Court, the
Governor also faces investigation by the ICPC. In a case
dating back to 2002, Alamieyeseigha is alleged to have
awarded over 1.7 billion naira to non-existent companies for
construction of the Niger Delta University. Following the
charges, ICPC initiated an investigation and found that the
companies were not in existence at the time the contracts
were awarded. However, Chief Wole Olanipekun, former
President of the Nigerian Bar Association, brought suit to
halt the investigation based on the Governor's immunity.
This past weekend Justice Anwuli Chikere ruled that
Olanipekun's suit was without merit, and requested the ICPC
case proceed. (Comment: This ruling, on the heels of the
stalled impeachment bid, raises suspicions of the Federal
Government leaning on the court to resuscitate this dormant
case. Again, in the Nigerian parlance, it takes on the color
of a good act being done for questionable motives. End
comment.)

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...THE TRUMP CARD...FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
WITHHOLDS NOVEMBER PAYOUT
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6. (SBU) The GON apparently is tightening the financial
screws on Bayelsa. The Bayelsa state accountant general has
yet to return from Abuja with the November revenue
distribution, and sources confirm that no payout to Bayelsa
has been made. The Federal allocation is a vital monthly
infusion of capital into Bayelsa. While its suspension will
impact the Governor, it will also negatively affect ordinary
Bayelsans, especially if this continues for some time.
Further, a delay in payment is not supported by the
constitution or Nigerian law.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Bayelsa has become a standoff and a test of wills
between the Governor and the President. With his liberty and
riches at stake, the personal stakes are higher for
Alamieyeseigha but the political stakes may actually be
higher for Obasanjo. All Alamieyeseigha wants is to remain
as governor. Obasanjo has the harder task of trying to oust
him. While Obasanjo has greater power, the game will mostly
be played on the unfriendly turf of Bayelsa where the
Governor has a distinct hometown advantage. At this moment,
Alamieyeseigha probably believes he has won more tactical
battles than he has lost since his mysterious return. He has
been a rallying point for disaffected Ijaw militants and
politicians, and he is also probably getting moral support
and some material succor from anti-Obasanjo figures elsewhere
in Nigeria who, for their own reasons, want to see Obasanjo's
glare diverted from them.


8. (C) Comment continued: The confluence of Federal troops,
Ijaw militias loyal to Alamieyeseigha, continuing legal
turmoil, and threatened economic strangulation of Bayelsa
State by the Federal Government combine into an uncomfortable
situation. A miscalculation or an inadvertent incident could
ignite a hot crisis. Lives and property could be at risk,
and the flow of oil could be interrupted, if either side
negligently misplays their hand. The question now becomes
how long will Obasanjo's patience last, how far will he go to
excise this affront to his presidential power and then how
far will Alamieyeseigha go in reacting to presidential
stratagems. End comment.


9. (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BROWNE