Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05LAGOS1803
2005-11-28 15:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

PRESIDENTIAL INDECISION THREATENS SYSTEM

Tags:  PREL PGOV NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

281530Z Nov 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001803 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL INDECISION THREATENS SYSTEM
OVERHEATING


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001803

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL INDECISION THREATENS SYSTEM
OVERHEATING


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a late October conversation with the Consul
General, Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki described three
approaches President Obasanjo could follow regarding the 2007
elections: amend the constitution to extend his current
term, reconcile with the Vice President and support his
candidacy for president, or identify an acceptable successor
from the ranks of the current state governors. The middle
option is being progressively sandwiched and overshadowed by
the other two. Saraki's counsel to the President has been to
take the third approach, with Governors Yar'Adua of Katsina
and Makarfi of Kaduna as the possible leading candidates, in
that order. However, Saraki fears the President prefers to
remain in office, and expects significant northern outcry as
a result. End summary.

--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------


2. (C) Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki presented his
views on President Obasanjo's position on the upcoming 2007
election during an October 29th meeting with the Consul
General. Saraki, the smart son of Kwara State political
godfather Olu Saraki, is in his first term and looks forward
to winning a second term in 2007.


3. (C) Although sympathetic to Vice President Atiku, Saraki
maintains an amiable relationship with the President.
Obasanjo has chided the Governor in conversations for his
pro-Atiku leanings but apparently does not regard Saraki as a
die-hard Atiku supporter. Thus, according to Saraki, his
relationship with Obasanjo is not antagonistic, and Obasanjo
considers Saraki a sufficiently creditable performer, which
is a significantly better assessment than Obasanjo gives any
of the staunchly pro-Atiku governors.


4. (C) Saraki described three approaches the President could
take regarding the elections: continuing in office through
the duration of an extended second term, reconciling with and
supporting the Vice President as his successor, and
identifying an acceptable compromise successor candidate from
among the current governors.

--------------
OPTION 1: EXTENDING THE CURRENT TERM

--------------


5. (C) Saraki stated that the President's preference is to
amend the constitution, establishing a single presidential
term of six years, with the term extension effective
immediately. This would keep Obasanjo in office another two
years. (Comment: This limitation of course depends on there
not being yet another constitutional amendment. End comment.)


6. (C) Saraki was skeptical about the President's ability to
garner enough support for this maneuver. Constitutional
amendments require adoption by 24 states, and Saraki
forecasted the President could not get that number of states
in his corner. For instance, Obasanjo would have a difficult
time gaining the assent of the eight northern states
controlled by All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) governors.
Any ANPP governor that publicly endorsed Obasanjo's extension
would be casting his own political career into a furnace,
Saraki profferred. Likewise, the AD-controlled Lagos State
would oppose Obasanjo's bid, as would the party-less Governor
Ngige of Anambra State. (Ngige previously was evicted from
the PDP.) Edo, Delta, Imo, Abia, and Akwa Ibom are
controlled by the pro-Atiku governors who would fight
Obasanjo's extension with all assets at their disposal.
Additionally, the PDP governor of Adamawa State is Atiku's
political younger brother and this filial relationship would
withstand any pressure that Obasanjo could martial on that
governor. Last, states like Benue, Ebonyi and Niger, the
latter being the home of presidential hopeful and former
military leader Ibrahim Babangida, were undecided, and could
go against Obasanjo. All in all, Saraki thought Obasanjo
could only get half of the states on his side. Despite the
hurdles, Saraki continued, the President currently favors
this course of action.


7. (C) Additionally, a constitutional amendment would take a
super-majority of the National Assembly. Given Obasanjo's
testy relationship with that body, Saraki predicted Obasanjo
would have a difficult time finding the requisite support
notwithstanding the number of carrots and sticks he might
brandish.

-------------- ---
OPTION 2: A NONSTARTER - RECONCILING WITH ATIKU
-------------- ---


8. (C) The second scenario Saraki outlined has the President
and Vice President reconciling to a point where the President
supports the Vice President in 2007. This scenario was the
most unlikely and exists only in theory, said Saraki. To
Saraki, President Obasanjo has described his relationship
with Atiku as dead, and the schism has resisted all attempts
to mend it, by party leaders and traditional rulers alike.
Obasanjo simply does not want to be succeeded by Atiku,
explained Saraki.


9. (C) Saraki described the President's strategy was to
undermine Atiku by isolating the Vice President. The
President would accomplish this by frightening Atiku's
supporters then wresting the party machinery from them and
the Vice President. According to Saraki, the President
deliberately chose Atiku opponents to oversee the recent
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) registration exercise.
Pro-Atiku governors were placed on their haunches when
Obasanjo appointed opponents of these governors to shepherd
membership registration in their respective states. As a
price for their affinity for Atiku, these governors lost
control of who could join the PDP in their states.
Obasanjo's strong-arming weakened several Vice Presidential
supporters, recounted Saraki. Governors Goje of Gombe State,
Akume of Benue State, and Nyame of Taraba State all turned to
the President swearing their loyalty. Reportedly, Obasanjo
accepted their entreaties and returned control to them of the
registration process in their states. Pro-Atiku southern
governors have remained in the Vice President's camp. Saraki
expects some of them may yet return to the Presidential fold,
but others will stick to Atiku to the bitter end. Saraki
believed that these hardliners would adhere to Atiku not
necessarily out of principle but because they mistrusted
Obasanjo even more than they were frightened by him. No
matter the overtures the President might make, governors such
as Ibori in Delta and Igbinedion in Edo felt they could not
reach amends with him.


10. (C) Eventually, the President's unyielding approach may
cause some governors to leave the PDP, Saraki continued,
however, current PDP leadership seemed more focused on making
a soft bed for Obasanjo supporters but a hard place for
Atiku's. Loyalty matters more than numbers. If some
unfaithful choose to leave the PDP, so be it, Saraki
summarized as Obasanjo's attitude.

-------------- --------------
OPTION 3: IDENTIFYING AN ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE CANDIDATE
-------------- --------------


11. (C) If the political pressure were removed, the vast
majority of PDP governors would oppose Obasanjo's
continuation. The governors are meeting constantly in large
and small packs to reach consensus on a compromise candidate
acceptable to the President, confided Saraki. A unified
front would give each maximum political cover from potential
presidential ire. It would also help show that a
constitutional amendment was unlikely. Their focus has been
on identifying an acceptable northern governor, thus
fulfilling the deal reached in 2003 for the President to come
from the North. To make this course more amenable to
President Obasanjo, Saraki continued, the governors would
have to emphasize that this tack would assure the President
the distinction of being the first elected Nigerian civilian
chief executive to hand over to another elected civilian.
Thus, Obasanjo's place in history would be guaranteed by
conducting a fair election and by his accomplishments in the
arena of economic reform.


12. (C) Some northern governors under consideration were
Adamu of Nasarawa, Muazu of Bauchi, Makarfi of Kaduna, and
Yar'Adua of Katsina, with Makarfi and Yar'Adua the most
attractive candidates in Saraki's estimation. Saraki liked
Muazu but questioned whether he had sufficient scope to
handle the presidency, and Adamu was viewed as a poor
administrator and too much in the President's pocket.


13. (C) Saraki said Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna was an able
political strategist who has been doing a good job
pre-positioning himself as a dark horse. Makarfi is
intelligent and a good governor, Saraki maintained. However,
Umaru Yar'Adua, governor of Katsina State, was the truly
intriguing prospect, according to Saraki. Yar'Adua is quiet,
has received good reviews for his performance in office, and
he would likely continue Obasanjo's economic reform programs,
but with a more humane approach.


14. (C) Most significantly, Yar'Adua is the younger brother
of late General Shehu Yar'Adua, founder of the Peoples Front
of Nigeria (PFN),which later became the Peoples Democratic
Movement (PDM). When General Yar'Adua died, PFN leadership
fell to Atiku Abubakar, the current Vice President. If Umaru
Yar'Adua were nominated as a presidential candidate, many of
Atiku's supporters would become double-minded and Atiku's
claim that he was championing the Yar'Adua legacy would lose
credence. Atiku could lose a significant chunk of his
rank-and-file support. The resultant diminution of Atiku's
political base by the ascendancy of Yar'Adua would be a
consideration Obasanjo would find highly attractive because
it would also make it difficult for Atiku to leave the PDP to
join forces with another group. Umaru Yar'Adua also enjoys a
decent relationship with Obasanjo.

--------------
SARAKI'S ADVICE TO THE PRESIDENT
--------------


15. (C) Governor Saraki has said he would continue
conferring with his fellow PDP governors to rally around
Makarfi or Yar'Adua as worthy successors to Obasanjo, with
Yar'Adua as the top choice. Yar'Adua is on no one's
blacklist, he has shown himself to be a capable public
servant while serving as Katsina governor, and he would
satisfy the call for a President from the north. To complete
the ticket, a southern Vice Presidential candidate would be
in order. Saraki listed Duke of Cross River, Egwu of Ebonyi,
and Attah of Akwa Ibom as capable choices. Saraki's sense,
however, is that the President's favorite from the south is
Peter Odili of Rivers State, whose selection would set a poor
example given Odili's "self-enrichment" while in office.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


16. (C) The President's continued silence about his position
in 2007 is causing increased political turbulence. A first
term governor, Saraki has no national ambitions for now and
just wants to get to his second term with his state and the
nation in one piece. Saraki is in the position to play as
honest a broker as one can find among the crop of Nigerian
elected officials. His assessment of Obasanjo jibes with
most others we have gotten. Saraki's identification of
Yar'Adua as a possible candidate is creative and it also
further indicates to what extent the Obasanjo-Atiku rift
influences all else, including the discovery of a possible
way out of this face-off. At bottom, the real question is
whether Obasanjo stays past 2007. Most who know the
President indicate he does not appear to be a man looking to
pack his suitcase. Should he decide to try to hold on, his
decision will meet with considerable opposition within the
party and in the region where Saraki hopes the next president
will come - the North. End comment.
BROWNE