CONTINUED INFIGHTING PLAGUES OPPOSITION PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001757

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: CONTINUED INFIGHTING PLAGUES OPPOSITION PARTY


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Summary: In a late October twist in its ongoing
leadership struggle, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) expelled
faction leader Senator Mojisoluwa Akinfenwa for anti-party
activities. Akinfenwa responded with his own allegations
that leadership rival Chief Bisi Akande had authored the
expulsion, and that his removal was the subplot of a larger
caper engineered by Lagos State Governor Tinubu to hijack the
AD to his own ends in 2007. The AD has been in tumult since
its setbacks in the 2003 election. The antagonists in this
struggle have taken their competing claims to court in hopes
of winning by legal edict what they could not resolve by
political means. End summary.

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FACTION LEADER'S EXPULSION ELICITS COUNTER-CHARGES
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2. (U) The AD, the Yoruba-based opposition party, suffered
another eruption in its ongoing leadership crisis with the
expulsion of faction leader Akinfenwa. AD vice chairman for
the south-west, Alhaji Olatunji Hamzat, stated the Senator
was expelled for "anti-party activities." This term has
quickly become a euphemism employed by the leadership of a
party to get rid of internal opposition, particularly one's
leadership rivals. In that such rivalries in Nigeria's
parties are more common than a cold, this term is quickly
becoming hackneyed and meaningless. For his part, Akinfenwa
responded with hyperbole, dismissing the allegations as "an
exercise in futility and the hugest joke of the century," and
condemned the action as a violation of due process.


3. (C) Akinfenwa's rebuttal continued with charges that the
current AD leadership crisis has been orchestrated by Lagos
State Governor Tinubu. Akinfenwa alleged that Tinubu had
ignited the infighting as part of a plan to hijack the AD and
steer it toward helping to form a new party in support of
Vice President Atiku's 2007 presidential aspirations.
(Comment: Although made bitter by his sour grapes position
of being on the losing side of this leadership tiff,
Akinfenwa's observation is not devoid of credence. For
months, Tinubu has been huddling with different groups of
political associates bruiting the idea of forming a new party
with Atiku. On November 9, a group of pro-Atiku PDP
outcasts, including former PDP national chairman Audu Ogbeh,
met to discuss just that - establishing a new party: the
Movement for the Defence of Democracy (MDD). End Comment.)

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BACKGROUND
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4. (C) Harkening to the political legacy of Yoruba political
icon Obafemi Awolowo, AD showed itself be the mainstream
southwest party during the 1999 elections by winning
virtually all the elective positions in Ondo, Lagos, Ekiti,
Ogun, Oyo and Osun states. AD fortunes nosedived in 2003
when it lost all but one of the states it controlled, with
only Tinubu retaining the Lagos State governorship. The
internecine fingerpointing began once the reality of the
debacle had registered. The internal dispute has not let up,
eventually leading to two separate national conventions held
simultaneously on December 16, 2003 in Lagos and Abuja. The
Abuja convention elected Senator Mojisola Akinfenwa as its
national chairman while the Lagos gathering selected former
Osun State Governor Bisi Akande.


5. (U) The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
directed the party to conduct another national convention in
order to recognize one of the two factions as head, or find
another amicable solution. Another national convention,
attended by a majority of the AD's leaders, was held in Lagos
on September 26, 2004. INEC officials observed the event,
tagged the Unity Convention, but the Akinfenwa faction
boycotted it. They protested Tinubu had unfairly stacked the
roster of attendees with his yes men, thus making the
decision taken at the convention a foregone conclusion
unrepresentative of the true rank and file of the party.
Akande was elected as the new chairman. Following the
convention, INEC formally recognized Akande's chairmanship.
Of course, the saga did not end there.


6. (C) A dissatisfied Akinfenwa took the new AD executive
committee and INEC to court challenging the legality of the
2004 Unity Convention. In an interim decree, the court held
that the two factions should maintain the status quo until a
final ruling is made. Following the court,s directive, INEC
withdrew the earlier recognition given to the Akande group
and said it would not recognize any of the factions pending
the final adjudication of the case. (Comment: These AD
insiders may not be the only ones dabbling with the script.
President Obasanjo, who considers himself the senior Yoruba
political figure, sees Governor Tinubu as a potential usurper
of this role. He thus wants to trip Tinubu at every
available opportunity. President Obasanjo evidently wrote
INEC criticizing the prior decision to recognize the Akande
faction as the national leadership. To keep Tinubu from
taking the political offensive in the southwest, Obasanjo, at
the very least, would like to enervate the AD by keeping it
roiled in a leadership squabble. End comment.)


7. (C) INEC's backtrack was met by accusations from the
AD-affiliated Afenifere, the most influential Yoruba
socio-political group, that INEC was the agent of a scheme
prepared by the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) to
weaken the AD. Yinka Odumakin, Afenifere,s Publicity
Secretary, told PolSpec the PDP wants to destroy AD so PDP

SIPDIS
could retain the southwestern states it "dubiously hijacked"
in 2003. However, a PDP spokesperson told journalists in
Abuja the PDP had no hand in AD,s predicament, advised the
AD to look inward for solutions and stop blaming others for
its problems.


8. (U) Afenifere is very concerned about the AD's prospects
if the party rift is not mended. Chief Olasupo Shonibare,
deputy AD leader in Lagos but more an ally of Akinfenwa, said
the factions must come together to challenge the PDP, and
calls upon the faction led by Akande and Tinubu for
suggestions of how to resolve the impasse. Afenifere is
determined to have a forum to promote Yoruba political
interests. If the AD split is not repaired soon Afenifere
may likely try to fashion another party.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) The confusion and turbulence that engulf the AD
leadership is part and parcel of Nigerian politics, and
Yoruba politics has always been among the fractious. Given
the PDP's near stranglehold on the southwest, the throes and
tics exhibited by the AD may well be the signs of a once
healthy political organism now nearing the frontiers of its
extinction. In part, this is a result of self-destructive
infighting; but the AD would not have gotten into such woeful
shape without getting a little timely help from its enemies.
Most likely, the infighting will continue, unity will remain
elusive and the AD will stagger into 2006 and perhaps into
2007 a divided if not soon-to-be broken house. The prospect
for the AD to recapture the Southwest come 2007 is dim and
may be getting dimmer. End comment.
BROWNE