Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05LAGOS166
2005-02-06 05:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

DECEPTION AND DEFECTION IN NIGERIA'S SOUTHERN

Tags:  KDEM NI PGOV 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000166 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, DRL, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2015
TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV
SUBJECT: DECEPTION AND DEFECTION IN NIGERIA'S SOUTHERN
PARTY POLITICS

REF: A. 04 LAGOS 2513


B. 04 LAGOS 2592

C. ABUJA 48

Classified By: Acting Consul General Ronald Kramer per 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000166

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, DRL, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2015
TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV
SUBJECT: DECEPTION AND DEFECTION IN NIGERIA'S SOUTHERN
PARTY POLITICS

REF: A. 04 LAGOS 2513


B. 04 LAGOS 2592

C. ABUJA 48

Classified By: Acting Consul General Ronald Kramer per 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) SUMMARY: Recent developments in the southern
political landscape highlight internal power struggles and
the weakening of political parties. Succession battles scar
the dominant People's Democratic Party (PDP) and factions
within the PDP in both Edo state and Anambra state are
unwilling to compromise. The largely southwestern opposition
party, the Alliance for Democracy (AD),is at risk of losing
Lagos, the last state in its control. Public confidence has
eroded in the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) over
its failures in Anambra State to uphold the democratic
process. A sense of public uncertainty underscores political
preparations for the 2007 elections. End Summary.

--------------
PDP Power Struggle in Edo State
--------------


2. (U) The battle over who becomes the next governor of Edo
state has split the Edo State chapter of the Peoples
Democratic Party into two contending factions. The battle
pitches Governor Lucky Igbinedion and his father, Gabriel
Igbinedion, a PDP chieftain, against PDP's Board of Trustees
Chairman Tony Anenih and former military governor Samuel
Ogbemudia. Anenih and Ogbemudia want the next governor of
the state to come from their zone, the Edo central senatorial
district, since the other two zones in the state produced the
present governor and his deputy. Governor Igbinedion and
his supporters insist that the contest should be open to all
zones in the state.


3. (C) Anenih and Ogbemudia are staunch Obasanjo loyalists
while Governor Igbinedion, like most PDP Governors, is a
close associate of Vice President Atiku. The Edo crisis is
widely regarded as yet another source of friction between the
Obasanjo and Atiku camps. An Edo state government official
told Poloff that the national polarization of factions within
the PDP is further complicating matters at the state level.
Both factions have vested interests in who becomes the next
governor. Anenih is supporting three of his close loyalists
in the hope that one of them will eventually succeed.
Governor Igbinedion wants either Mike Oghiadomhe, his deputy,

or Osagie Ise-Iyamu, one of his senior advisors, to succeed
him.


4. (U) Unwilling to compromise, the two factions are engaged
in a running battle that has further split the party. In
early December, the Anenih faction established a parallel
party secretariat and selected a parallel party executive.
The official party secretariat is located on Governor
Igbinedion's private property. The Anenih camp said it no
longer felt comfortable with the location where its loyalists
have been kidnapped and subject to violent attacks. In
mid-December, the governor's faction responded by suspending
Anenih, Ogbemudia, and many of their supporters from the
party. Governor Igbinedion also replaced all known Anenih
loyalists holding positions in his government. Shortly
thereafter, the PDP national headquarters overruled the
suspension and Anenih and his supporters regained their
membership status.


5. (U) In late December, President Obasanjo invited the
principal actors in the Edo State dispute to Abuja for a
peace meeting. Obasanjo then directed all the feuding
factions to meet on December 27 to further consolidate the
peace initiative. This meeting never took place. President
Obasanjo again held separate meetings with leaders of the two
factions in early January. Both factions agreed to
reconcile, however there has been no visible progress.

--------------
INEC Fails in Anambra
--------------


6. (U) The senate has finally sworn in Chief Ben Obi as
representative of the Anambra central senatorial district - a
seat he won almost two years ago. After senate testimony on
February 2 by the chairman of the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) that confirmed Obi as the "duly
elected senator", Obi was sworn in. It marked the end of
Obi's legal battle against INEC and Ikechukwu Abana, who has
occupied the seat since 2003. INEC's failures in Obi's
case raised serious questions about its independence and its
ability to conduct free and fair elections. (Bio Note: Chief
Ben Obi is a former advisor to President Obasanjo on national
security and the former National Secretary of the All Nigeria
People's Party).


7. (U) INEC initially announced Obi the winner of the April
12, 2003 Anambra senate election. Shortly thereafter, INEC
annulled the election and declared that Abana would be the
next senate representative. Abana had lost the election for
governor and had never been nominated in the senate electoral
process. The Electoral Act does not give INEC the power to
annul an election. In the annulment and substitution of the
elected winner, the INEC commissioner in Anambra state
reportedly explained that they were merely acting on
"directives from above".


8. (C) In a meeting with Poloff, Obi said that this fiasco
was "another June 12", alluding to the elections of 1993 that
were annulled by former head of state Babengida. Obi used
the court system to protest the INEC decision. Since the
legal battle began, there have been 32 rulings and nine
judgments, including from the Supreme Court, all in Obi's
favor. Obi confirmed that in January, he finally received
the Sealed Certificate of Return from INEC, showing him as
the rightful winner of the election. (Comment: The erosion
of public confidence in INEC must be addressed for it to have
the legitimacy it needs to conduct the 2007 elections. End
Comment).


9. (U) In another development in the ongoing feud between
Anambra Governor Chris Ngige and Chris Uba (Reftel A),the
Anambra state committee investigating the crisis firmly
rejected Uba's plea to be named deputy governor. A report
from the committee stated that this would only "aggravate the
situation".

--------------
Strife Within the Alliance for Democracy
--------------


10. (U) The future is uncertain for the Alliance for
Democracy (AD) party in Lagos State. (Note: Lagos is the
only one of seventeen southern states that is not controlled
by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),though in many states
the PDP is believed to have gained power fraudulently). Four
AD federal legislators from Lagos have recently defected to
the rival PDP party. The list includes Senator Musiliu
Obanikoro, a close confidant of Lagos State Governor Ahmed
Tinubu, and three other members of the House of
Representatives. Obanikoro is a prominent Senator from the
Lagos Island district and was considered by some as Tinubu's
likely successor. His defection to the PDP has severely
weakened the AD hold on Lagos State and might boost PDP
chances to win the next governorship election in Lagos State.
Obanikoro has already announced that he will seek the PDP
gubernatorial ticket in the 2007 election (Reftel B).


11. (U) In its effort to halt the PDP assault, the Lagos AD
has instituted a legal battle and initiated a recall process
to regain the seats it lost to these defecting legislators.
The party has filed four separate suits in a federal court to
challenge the constitutionality of the legislators' action
and reclaim its seats in the national assembly. The
legislators were all elected on an AD ticket. The AD argues
that in accordance with the constitution, when they changed
parties, the legislators forfeited their seats.


12. (C) Comment: With these defections, the AD risks losing
Lagos, the last state that it controls, in the 2007
elections. (Note: The party lost five states to the PDP in
the 2003 elections and the PDP already controls 28 of
Nigeria's 36 states). If the PDP had its internal conflicts
under control, it could capitalize on the succession battles
in the opposition parties. However, fractures within the
PDP, as evidenced in Anambra state, Edo state, and the forced
resignation of PDP Chairman Ogbeh (Reftels),might further
divide the party. With party positioning for 2007 making
daily headline news, the alignment of key individuals and
power networks is far from determined. End Comment.
KRAMER