BAYELSA GOVERNOR'S ARREST STRIKES FEAR IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001638

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: BAYELSA GOVERNOR'S ARREST STRIKES FEAR IN THE
HEARTS OF HIS PEERS


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: The arrest of Bayelsa State Governor
Diepreye Alamieyeseigha in London has unnerved some of his
fellow pro-Atiku southern governors. His interception
abroad, where he does not enjoy constitutional immunity, has
not only sullied the attraction of frequent travel (one of
the governors' favored pastimes),but is causing many of them
to rethink the wisdom of backing a retreating Atiku against a
surging Obasanjo. Many of them probably would have turned
tail and angled toward Obasanjo but for his storied
vindictiveness. They cannot be certain if, in running to
him, they would not be running into his hard clutches rather
than the accepting embrace of a magnanimous chief executive
for his prodigal junior executives. End summary.

THE PRICE OF HIS SUCCESS
--------------


2. (C) His profligacy is part of his predicament but the
Bayelsa executive is no more spendthrift than many of his
colleagues. The sybaritic life has been a contagion among
state governors. One of the ironies is that Alamieyeseigha
has probably performed better in the past year to 18 months
than many of his brethren and definitely has improved over
his earlier years. Thus, in the minds of many Nigerians,
Alamieyeseigha's travail did not begin in London Heathrow
airport but with his temerity toward President Obasanjo. The
Bayelsa governor had been one of the earliest and most
visible 2007 vice-presidential aspirants, journeying around
the country drumming-up, soliciting and purchasing support
from any quarter for this bid. His misfortune, according to
this rendition of the tale, was that he wanted to be number
two to a man who just might be President Obasanjo's number
one bete noire - Vice President Atiku. In backing and
indirectly campaigning for Atiku, the Bayelsa executive was
bound to ire Obasanjo into action against him.


3. (C) Thus Governor Alamieyeseigha apparently elevated
himself on the Economic and Financial Crime Commission's
(EFCC) priority list. The signs of Alamieyeseigha's
impending woes were evident. The EFCC had been scouring
Bayelsa financial records for weeks. Four state
commissioners had been apprehended by the EFCC a week before
the governor was stopped in London. Reaction in Bayelsa
State to the apprehension of the quartet was swift. Militia
members in Yenegoa and Port Harcourt threatened to storm EFCC
offices. Governor Alamieyeseigha reportedly intervened by
telephone from his hospital bed in Germany and obtained the
commissioners' release, forestalling potential violence.


4. (C) Alamieyeseigha's influence with the militias was due
to his policy of co-optation of militia leaders, some of whom
he has given government appointments in exchange for their
cooperation and their avoidance of generalized violence.
This policy is a double-edged sword. While it serves to
finance militia members and enable them to keep their
following, it also has served to make them less violent.
Whichever one's point of view might be, both the relative
quiet in Bayelsa prior to the Governor's arrest and the
tension subsequent to his detention have been influenced by
his strategy of co-optation.

APPREHENSION SEIZES THE OTHER GOVERNORS
--------------


5. (C) In the South-South and South-East, Alamieyeseigha's
arrest has sent tremors through many of the gubernatorial
mansions whose primary occupants are also pro-Atiku. Many of
the governors have been literally frozen in their tracks.
Peripatetic governors, like Edo State's Lucky Igbinedion who
seemingly spent as much time abroad as in their state
capitals, suddenly have become stationary homebodies. Rumor
among the southern governors is that the federal government
has provided the British authorities a hit list of officials
to target. Few pro-Atiku governors want to test the fates
and find themselves situated with Alamieyeseigha.
Predictably, tension has increased because Alamieyeseigha's
arrest means the political stakes have been raised. Many of
these currently homebound governors are conferring among
themselves trying to figure out Obasanjo's and their own next
moves.


6. (C) Some governors will be tempted to wash their hands of
Atiku and seek rapprochement with Obasanjo. However,
Obasanjo's vengefulness is proverbial. Surrendering to him
is no guarantee of his lenient reaction. Meanwhile,
pro-Atiku hardliners are trying to circle the wagons around
their embattled mentor. They cite the Bayelsan's arrest as
an example of what will happen to each of them unless they
stick together. Taking all this together, the political
atmosphere in southern Nigeria is one of uncertainty, fog,
and possible shifts in allegiances.

EFCC CHAIRMAN RIBADU'S ROLE?
--------------


7. (C) EFCC Chairman Nuhu Ribadu's role in the
Alamieyeseigha drama is unclear, but he was in proximity to
many of it's pivotal acts. First, Ribadu apparently spoke
with Alamieyeseigha during the disruption concerning the
Bayelsa State commissioners. This was while the Governor was
in Germany. Ribadu also reportedly visited London prior to
Alamieyeseigha's arrival and subsequent detention at
Heathrow. (Comment: Ribadu's London itinerary is unknown,
but his visit coming so shortly in advance of the Governor's
arrival is not looked on by many Nigerians as coincidental.
End comment).


8. (C) Comment: Alamieyeseigha's arrest has frightened many
other southern governors, who have quickly shelved their
rather liberal international travel habits. These southern
governors will eschew overseas travel because they fear
losing the protection provided by the immunity clause of the
Nigerian constitution. At bottom, these governors would not
have much to worry about but for their large-scale personal
liberality with public coffers. However, they all see the
latest arrest as the politically motivated use of
international law enforcement cooperation between Nigeria and
the UK to subdue Obasanjo foes and isolate VP Atiku. They
claim that Alamieyeseigha was targeted while Obasanjo allies
have not been harassed although many of them are similarly
culpable of like transgressions.


9. (C) Comment, continued: Thus, the arrest gives the
southern governors cause to mull the pros and cons of their
allegiances with Vice President Atiku as opposed to
attempting to get out of the Obasanjo dog house. Whether to
ally with Obasanjo or Atiku has been the existential
question, and now even more so. Not only is one's political
future in the balance but a governor's personal freedom or
future incarceration may be determined by the selection he
makes. End comment.
BROWNE