NIGERIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION ENTERS ANAMBRA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001438

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION ENTERS ANAMBRA
STATE'S GOVERNOR SWEEPSTAKES

REF: LAGOS 1391

Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. In a reversal that seems awkward even by
Anambra State's meager standards of political behavior, the
Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) appealed the Anambra
state electoral tribunals' decision to overturn the 2003
gubernatorial election. During the tribunal hearing, INEC
defended the integrity of the election, but now it is
disavowing the very elections it conducted. INEC's appeal,
if successful, would result in a new election. Both tribunal
loser Governor Ngige and tribunal verdict winner Peter Obi
have at least temporarily found common cause in vituperating
the INEC action. Most observers believe INEC's about-face is
the handiwork of Presidential ally and Anambra strongman
Chris Uba, who has been itching to install a loyal surrogate
in the governor's mansion in Awka. End Summary.


2. (U) On September 7, INEC's new director, Maurice Iwu,
lodged an appeal with the Anambra state court of appeals,
claiming that INEC did not conduct elections in 90 of 213
precincts in 2003. According to INEC, proper elections did
not take place; therefore, Anambra will have to hold new
elections. INEC's requested remedy significantly differs
from Ngige's appeal, who is asking the court to overturn the
tribunal's ruling and return him to office. Both appeals are
set for hearings in the same court of appeals.


4. (U) The Speaker of the Anambra State House of Assembly
called INEC's move "unbelievable." According to him, INEC
has not disputed the propriety of other elections held in
Anambra the same day as the gubernatorial contest, and their
current stance is both contradictory and erroneous. The
State Secretary echoed these comments exactly. The attorney
for Peter Obi, winner of the electoral tribunal verdict, made
similar statements and added that he remembered INEC
officials defending the 2003 election at the tribunal. He
reportedly called INEC prepared "to trample on truth and
reason in order to act a script written by certain faceless
politicians with a selfish agenda."


5. (C) Comment. INEC states its appeal is based on a
finding made by the tribunal that elections were not actually
conducted in a significant number of precincts. Few people
take INEC rationale at face value. Most people believe
INEC's actions have been orchestrated by Chris and Andy Uba,
both of whom have close ties to President Obasanjo. Chris
Uba wants to control Anambra and who sits in the top seat
there. First, he allied with Ngige but found the diminutive,
superficially malleable physician ultimately uncontrollable
and unreliable. Uba made overtures to Obi, but Obi, a man of
independent means, did not need Uba and apparently rebuffed
his advances. Thus, Uba wants to clean the deck. Whether he
succeeds is now in the hands of the Anambra court. However,
this episode, which has seen INEC publicly discredit its own
conduct of an election, has cast futher doubt in the minds of
many Anambrans over the ability of INEC to be an impartial
actor in the state. Ngige was expelled from the PDP at Uba's
behest, and rather than lose a PDP governorship, the PDP
wants to get a fresh try at it. With its appeal, which can
reasonably be expected to succeed, INEC can still unseat
Ngige and marginalize Obi, even if the pair strike a deal and
Ngige withdraws his own appeal.
BROWNE