NIGERIAN GOVERNOR UNSEATED BY ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001391

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN GOVERNOR UNSEATED BY ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL


Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Following the Anambra State electoral
tribunal's overturning of the 2003 gubernatorial election on
August 12, the state's political climate continues to seethe.
Electoral tribunal loser, current Governor Ngige had
signalled his willingness to step down to aides of
Governor-designate Obi. However, when Ngige and Obi met, the
former performed a volte face and disclaimed a willingness to
step down. Ngige swore to pursue his appeal, while Obi and
All Peoples Grand Alliance (APGA) party national chairman
Victor Umeh responded by hurling sharp public statements at
Ngige. Meanwhile, the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC),perhaps spurred by the third protagonist
in this enveloping drama Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
strongman Chris Uba, is also appealing the tribunal's verdict
in hopes of calling a new election. The quadrille being
played by Ngige, Obi, INEC, and Uba has begun to reheat
Anambra, which has already experienced an unhealthy portion
of political violence. We are advising all sides toward
conciliation, the rule of law and for keeping verbal arrows
in their quivers for the time being. End Summary.


2. (U) Immediately after the electoral tribunal threw out
Anambra's 2003 gubernatorial election, governor Chris Ngige
filed a twenty-two page appeal, listing twelve grounds,
including lack of jurisdiction. Ngige hopes the appeal will
reverse the tribunal decision, thus allowing him to keep his
seat. INEC has joined the appeal, but INEC wants a new
election. INEC may be acting in favor of Chris Uba, a PDP
heavy and ally of President Obasanjo. Uba was formerly
Ngige's patron, but the two have become mortal enemies and
Uba has been after Ngige's position ever since.


3. (C) Over the August 27-28 weekend, Ngige met new APGA
national chairman Victor Umeh. During this meeting, Ngige
seemed conciliatory and suggested he was amenable to a
settlement with Obi provided Ngige could remain "politically
relevant," Umeh told the Consul General during their August
29 meeting. "Ngige has always wanted to be a senator, and we
are willing to offer this to him for 2007," Umeh told the
Consul General. Because of Ngige's apparent flexibility,
Umeh arranged a meeting between Ngige and Obi.


4. (C) At the meeting with Obi, a different Ngige attended,
lamented Umeh. Seeing Obi was like casting the red flag
before a wounded bull, Umeh recounted. Instead of speaking
about a settlement, an animated Ngige asserted he had
discovered additional grounds for appeal, that he would win
the appeal and would not entertain any thought of political
compromise. At that point, both Obi and Umeh erupted, and
the meeting quickly turned vituperative and ended frostily.
Obi and Umeh carried the spirit of the meeting with them in
their most recent press encounters where they literally
excoriated Ngige. Ngige has publicly returned the insults.


5. (C) During his conversation with the Consul General, Umeh
feared the failed meeting between Obi and Ngige would provide
space that Chris Uba might exploit. At the end of the day,
Obi and Ngige have more in common than either of them with
Uba who wants to politically obliterate both from Anambra.
Umeh said that he would try to bring envoys of Obi and Ngige
back together to see if they can pick up the shattered glass
from the meeting of their principals. If the relationship
between obi and Ngige were allowed to degenerate and if Uba
tried to wedge himself into the gap, Anambra would spit into
three strong competing camps. Political violence would be a
near certain, Umeh feared. At that point, the Consul General
counselled patience, further dialogue and respect for the
rule of law. He also stressed the need for the major players
to holster their tongues in public lest their statements
inflame followers to commit acts no responsible person wants
to see.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Anambra is uneasily quiet for now. However, the
state is roiling under the surface. Both Obi and Ngige will
have to show greater restraint and statesmanship for Anambra
to remain at ease during the period. Notwithstanding the
court battle, Obi and Ngige could possibly strike a deal --
after all, Ngige needs a party to belong to if he is going to
play politics in 2007. He cannot return to the PDP. Obi's
APGA is the only real alternative in Anambra. Moreover, both
men have to be looking over their shoulders at Chris Uba. If
they reach an accord, it could pacify Anambra politics. If
not, expect another round of tension and more in Anambra.
End Comment.
BROWNE