NIGERIA: POLITICAL SNAPSHOTS FROM THE SOUTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001293

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL SNAPSHOTS FROM THE SOUTH

REF: LAGOS 1251

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (C) SUMMARY: A political insider asserts that President
Obasanjo (OBJ) will not only play a decisive role in
determining Nigeria's next president and vice president, but
that he has not relinquished the notion of an extended term.
Political candidates beware -- even when OBJ dons his
kingmaker attire, he reportedly flashes hot and cold on
aspirants. The South East geopolitical zone continues to
agitate for the presidency, but fails to unify behind a
candidate. In the big news in the South East, the Anambra
Appeals court has overturned Governor Ngige's election,
declaring All Progressive's Grand Alliance candidate, Peter
Obi, the winner. Meanwhile, the Biafran secessionist group,
MASSOB, has been active lately, circulating Biafran currency,
flying the Biafran flag, and calling for a stay-at-home
strike on August 26. In the South West, Lagos Governor Bola
Tinubu finally caved to presidential pressure and reversed
the establishment of 37 new local councils. However, most of
the "quid" in this arrangement is still outstanding, with the
federal government only releasing one-third of the funds
withheld from Lagos for almost two years. End Summary.

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NATIONAL SNAPSHOT: OBJ PLAYS EENY, MEENY, MINEY, ME?
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2. (C) Members of Nigeria's political elite continue to
report that President Obasanjo is resolved to play an active
role in determining Nigeria's next top leadership. Echoing
what we heard from Kaduna State Governor Makarfi (reftel),
former Defense Minister T.Y. Danjuma, told us OBJ is
determined to "block" Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and VP Atiku
Abubakar (Atiku) from getting the PDP presidential
nomination. Asked who OBJ supports, Danjuma chuckled, "why,
himself, of course." Danjuma maintained that despite having
had his share of disagreements with the president concerning
Nigeria's military reform, he and OBJ remain close. "I talk
with him almost every day and trust me, this man wants to
continue to be president," Danjuma stressed. (Comment:
Danjuma may not be as close a presidential friend as he
portrayed himself. He has axes to grind with the president
that go beyond military reform. For instance, Danjuma has
been leading the efforts to ally his home region, the Middle
Belt, with southern geo-political zones, and these efforts
appear to run contrary to any plans Obasanjo might prefer.
End Comment).

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SOUTH-SOUTH SNAPSHOT: Rivers State Governor Odili
Maneuvering for President, or Vice President
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3. (C) According to some contacts, Rivers State Governor
Peter Odili's stock with OBJ has fallen temporarily. The
president is reportedly annoyed with his erstwhile favorite
for visibly hitting the campaign trail prematurely, without
getting the presidential green light. (Some observers would
say this confirms that Obasanjo has not completely divorced
himself from the idea of self-succession). In addition,
sources say despite having cut the ribbon on Odili's two new
private planes, the President frowned on their purchase,
viewing them as excessive. When he learned Odili
contemplated using the planes in his election efforts,
Obasanjo felt that he had been maneuvered to appear to be
sanctioning Odili's efforts, according to one observer.


4. (C) Finally, Odili annoyed OBJ by cozying up to IBB and
his allies. Odili apparently had angled toward IBB thinking
him a more likely PDP presidential candidate than VP Atiku.
(It was no coincidence that one of the first and largest IBB
campaign offices is in Port Harcourt, Rivers State capital).
In this vein, Odili reportedly gave Rivers State National
Political Reform Conference Delegate Albert Horsfall a
handsome sum of "traveling money," which Horsfall used
liberally at the national confab. Horsfall is an "IBB man,"
having been IBB's top security man at one point during the
military presidency. Horsfall also wielded a powerful (and
probably, "enriching") position as IBB's director of Oil
Mineral Producing Areas Development Commission (OMPADEC),the
predecessor of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).
Odili had to reach an entente with Horsfall, heretofore a
political enemy from a rival part of Rivers State, in order
for the governor to be more attractive to IBB as a potential
running mate.


5. (C ) Perhaps learning that he had angered the president,
Odili is attempting to restore himself in the president's
good graces. In a turn of self-effacement, Odili
co-sponsored a pro-Obasanjo public lecture and book launch in
Accra, Ghana on August 13. Odili hosted this event with
Nasarawa Governor Adamu, a notorious OBJ yes-man, who has
been mentioned as a presidential dark horse. Odili may have
recalculated that the closer he sticks to Adamu, the less
likely will he anger OBJ and the more likely he is to get the
president's support for his vice-presidential ambitions.


6. (C) Last, the South-South political class is shouting
that Nigeria's next president must hail from the Niger Delta.
"Second-best, i.e. the vice-presidency, will not do."
However, this rallying cry is basically a sop to the Niger
Delta population, who are still riled following the zone's
bold, but failed, bid for increased resource control at the
recently concluded national confab. Among the governors,
this declaration is a hollow lie. In truth, three of the
zone's governors have their eyes on the vice presidency and
will not divert their gaze not their activities
notwithstanding the public disclaimer.

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SOUTH-EAST SNAPSHOT: Gubernatorial Election Overturned;
Zone wants Presidency, but No Candidate;
Biafra Day "Stay-AT-Home" Strike
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7. (C) Following a two-year court battle and over 500
witnesses, the Anambra State Elections Tribunal ruled August
12 that APGA candidate Peter Obi was the legitimate 2003
gubernatorial winner. Current governor Chris Ngige, who had
already been ousted from the ruling People's Democratic Party
(PDP) will appeal. However, Obi likely will prevail at the
appellate level as well. Most people believe Obi won the
election. Nevertheless, APGA Chairman Victor Umeh told us
the party still had to "strike a deal" with the PDP national
hierarchy in Abuja before the court would take the risky step
of ousting a sitting PDP governor, no matter how estranged
from the party. Under the deal, Ngige nemesis and OBJ
insider, Chris Uba, gets "taken care of," Umeh stated,
without offering further details. However, problems may be
on the horizon. Governor designate Obi is not fully aware of
the arrangement and may balk when asked to implement it.
According to Umeh, Deputy Governor Okey Udeh who remained
close to Chris Uba, was instrumental in brokering the deal
between APGA and the PDP. Presumably, the reward for his
good services may be to remain as deputy governor or to have
a place in Obi's cabinet despite being in a different party.


8. (C) The South East continues to clamor for the 2007
presidency, but has not progressed toward identifying a
consensus candidate. Ethno-political groups, such as the
pan-Igbo, Ohaneze Ndigbo, meet weekly. The South East has
been strategizing with the Middle Belt on a potential
presidential/vice-presidential ticket. This is the latest in
a series of cross-zonal overtures. During the national
confab, the Middle Belt sought common cause with the
South-South, but the partnership promptly disintegrated.
Similarly, for a brief period, all three southern zones acted
in concert during the national conference, but eventually
reverted to their particular interests. The Middle Belt is
the orphan of the North. It has the most to gain from
forming a lasting alliance with the South. The South East
sees itself as the orphan in the South. It is uncertain if
there is more glue that can bind the two zones together save
their mutual perception of political marginalization.


9. (SBU) Meanwhile, the secessionist group, the Movement
for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra
(MASSOB) as been active lately. MASSOB reportedly is
circulating Biafran currency and flying the Biafran flag.
Residents of the region have been urged to stay at home on
August 26, Biafran day. The "stay-at-home" strike MASSOB
organized in October 2004 was respected widely, impacting
Igbo-owned business ventures throughout the South, including
in Lagos and Port Harcourt. We anticipate similar, if not
greater, adherence to this upcoming strike.

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SOUTH WEST SNAPSHOT: Lagos Caves but Money Still Withheld
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10. (C) After an almost two-year stand-off, Lagos State
Governor Bola Tinubu yielded to federal pressure to disband
the 37 new local councils he had created. However, Tinubu
may have been outmaneuvered in this long-running tussle with
the federal government (FG). Tinubu thought he had reached a
deal with Abuja whereby he would rescind the creation of 37
(of a total of 57) local government councils and the FG would
release the local government funds it has withheld, on the
premise that the new councils were unconstitutional.
However, the FG only released one-third of the funds and the
FG may insist on new local government elections prior to
releasing the remainder.


11. (C) Last year, the Supreme Court ruled the new councils
illegal, but said the president had no authority to withhold
a state's funds. At the time, Obasanjo "interpreted" that
judgment to mean that he did not have to release the funds
until the illegal councils were disbanded. The call for
fresh elections represents a new FG conditionality. Lagos is
controlled by the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Of the
seventeen states comprising Southern Nigeria, it is the only
one not in the hands of the PDP. With a population of
between six and ten million, Lagos is a big electoral prize.
The FG wants new elections to see if the PDP can begin to
erode AD support and to help lay the groundwork for 2007.
That Obasanjo out-foxed Tinubu, his rival for the unofficial
mantle of political leader of the Yorubas, is also a nice
bonus.

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Comment
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12. (C) The uniting theme in these "reports from the
provinces" is OBJ's current political strength. From our
perch in Southern Nigeria, OBJ may not have sufficient
support to prolong his tenure, he nevertheless probably
wields veto-power regarding who will become Nigeria's next
president. However, Nigeria is dynamic and the political
cycle here is a fast, boom and bust one. OBJ rides high
today, but could easily see his fortunes reverse tomorrow.
End Comment.
BROWNE