NATIONAL POLITICAL REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001073

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NATIONAL POLITICAL REFORM
CONFERENCE

REF: LAGOS 947

Classified by Acting CG William Howe for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: The National Political Reform Conference
(NPRC) remains deadlocked over the issues of resource
control and the rotation and length of presidential power
(reftel). July 11 has been set for the resumption of
talks, but positions have hardened, increasingly along
ethnic fault-lines, and there is no guarantee the
conference will resume when scheduled. The South-South has
shown significant political maturity and sophistication,
forging useful alliances to advance its core issue -
resource control.


2. (C) Summary Continued: Having scored two home runs in as
many days with debt relief and the Supreme Court electoral
decision, President Obasanjo is stronger politically than
perhaps ever in his tenure. He can thus afford to let the
NPRC stew for a while. The increasingly raw North-South
strains will hurt presidential aspirants Buhari, Babangida,
and Atiku more over the long term than they currently
blemish the Obasanjo presidency. However, resource control
won,t be moved easily off the political front page and
there is always the risk of non-conference participants,
i.e. the militias, deciding the agenda is not advancing far
or quickly enough. End Summary.

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North and South-South Dig In
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3. (SBU) On June 14, South-South delegates walked out of
the NPRC after conference members adopted a proposal to
increase the derivation given to oil producing states from
the prevailing 13 to 17 percent (reftel). South-South
delegates tell us the proposal was erroneously adopted.
They insist there was no consensus on the 17 percent
figure, only agreement to talk about 17 percent. Although
one of the six geo-political zones was missing from the
conference, the chair continued with the next order of
business - rotation and length of presidential power. When
delegates affirmed two-term mandates with power rotating
dichotomously between the North and South, the South-East
block and some members of the South-West stormed out in
protest, compelling the chair to adjourn the conference.


4. (SBU) In the two weeks following adjournment, positions
have hardened. While previously most northern delegates
appeared reconciled to the four percent oil derivation
increase, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) is now
publicly calling on northern delegates to reject any
increase, calling the 17 percent proposal "excessive
generosity." Other prominent northern leaders have been
similarly dismissive of the South-South demand. North-West
leader Alhaji Dikko has reportedly threatened to
withdraw his zone from the conference if the topic is
re-opened.

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Horse - Trading
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5. (C ) The South-East has made common cause with the
South-South. The South-South is supporting the South-East,s
desire to increase its girth by one state. (Note: The
South-East is the only zone to have five states; all other
zones contain six states, with the exception of the North-
East which has seven.) In exchange for the South-East,s
support on resource control, there is tacit understanding
with the South-South that when the presidency rotates
southward, the South-East will "go first." As part of the
horse-trading, it is also possible the South-South has
ceded to the South-East its 2007 vice presidential
aspirations.


6. (C) The South-West has been a more cagey negotiating
partner for the South-South. South-South delegates tell us
in the early days of the conference, the South-West
supported increased resource control. Later, delegates
began to waffle. South-South delegates expressed anger and
disappointment at this perceived turnabout. "We can
understand the Middle Belt,s (North-Central) equivocation,
they have been squashed under northern control for so long,
it is hard for them to break free. However, there was no
reason for the South-West to betray us."


7. (C) On June 27, twelve days after the conference was
brought to a halt, the South-West reversed course and
pledged its support for the South-South demand. This
turnabout came after a presidential meeting with Southern
governors and subsequent meetings between South-West
governors and their delegates, leading some to suspect the
President influenced the decision. A South-South delegate
told us the South-West "returned to the fold" with the aim
of securing support for a single presidential term of five
or six years, as well as backing for presidential rotation
through the six zones. This would guarantee the presidency
eventually returns to the South-West. Obasanjo skeptics
have held all along that the President intended to use the
NPRC to constitutionally give himself new life - either
through a new six-year term or through an extension of
tenure in accordance with the new rules. That the idea has
surfaced yet again, and seemingly at Obasanjo,s behest, has
them saying, "I told you so."


8. (C) Having decided to prioritize resource control, the
South-South is indifferent on the issue of a
single presidential term. However, it recognizes it as an
important bargaining chit. If the North supports increased
oil derivations, the South-South will abandon the South-West
and back the North,s desire for the status quo of two terms.
On the other hand, if the North refuses to increase the
derivation, the South-South will use the term
limit chit to shore up its alliance with the South-West and
try to present a united southern front against the North.


9. (C) The South-East would probably prefer the status quo
of two terms so that when the zone gets "its turn," it can
at least aspire for a full eight years. However, the
length of tenure takes a back-seat to getting the mandate
itself. Thus, the South-East is malleable on this issue.
It is keener to see that the final conference report
recommend power rotate among the six zones, thus
guaranteeing its turn. The alliance between the South-South
and South-East is reportedly strong, with both blocks
believing they can trust the word of the other.


10. (C) Emboldened by the steadfast South-East support,
growing civil society backing, and now tenuous South-West
endorsement, the South-South is sticking (at least
publicly) to its position that the derivation be increased
to 25 percent immediately, with graduated increments up to
50 percent over a defined time period. South-South
delegates are somewhat surprised by their own success.
Delegates confide that when they meet in the NPRC
corridors, they slap each other on the back, scarcely able
to believe that they have been able to dominate the
conference with their issue.


11. (C) Privately, some South-South delegates have told us
they could countenance less than 25 percent as long as
there is provision for future increases. However, this
position would have to be proposed by the North and it
would have to be presented with far less "arrogance" than
has characterized the debate thus far. "Approach matters.
The North cannot behave as if this is its gift, to us."

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Ethnic Divisions Rubbed Raw -
Have the Nigerians Seen Movie "Crash"?
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12. (C) In his speech inaugurating the NPRC, President
Obasanjo expressed hope the conference would strengthen the
body politic and Nigeria,s national identity. Though the
final verdict is still out, the conference has veered far
off course from that objective. Subcutaneous ethnic
tensions have erupted and been rubbed raw. Slurs and
accusations of arrogance and chauvinism have flown in all
directions: The Yorubas of the South-West are shifty. The
Hausa/Fulani of the North East and North West are lazy
overlords who believe ruling their divine right. The
ethnic minorities comprising the Middle Belt (North
Central) are weak slaves, unable to break away from their
turbaned masters. The crafty Igbo of the South East are
good for trading, but not fit for holding the nation,s
highest office. Igbos are incapable of organizing
themselves, let alone a country. The Ijaw and other
minorities of the South-South are shady, corrupt,
spendthrifts undeserving of more money, having squandered
that which has already been given them.


13. (SBU) A few political activists and pundits have urged
delegates transcend this "tribalism." One such activist
recently criticized delegates of viewing Nigeria not as a
country, but as "a divided land where everyone has to make
sure their area is taken care of, and the rest can go to
Hell." The activist encouraged delegates to shelve ethnic
identities and consider what reforms are best for the
nation, not "which group is giving, what to the other."


14. (C) However, delegates tell us nerves are exposed.
Conference discourse has been conducted in ethnic code.
One delegate told us that even if agreement were reached on
resource control, it would represent a "papering-over" of
Nigeria,s real crisis - unresolved ethnic discord.

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Comment
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15. (C) President Obasanjo and the South-South are both in
the cat-bird,s seat, but for different reasons. The
president's popular standing has improved because of his
anti-corruption moves in recent months, success in securing
debt relief after six years of effort, and most recently
the Supreme Court decision validating his 2003 election.
These successes have bought Obasanjo both time and
political capital. The President can thus afford to let
the conference stew a while. In fact, doing so may better
serve his long-term interests. The North-South tensions
laid bare by the conference hurt Buhari, Babangida, and
Atiku more than they do Obasanjo, as those three northern
politicians need good northern-southern relations for their
2007 presidential runs. However, pushing for a single
presidential term, with the veiled implication that
Obasanjo could be the first beneficiary either in the form
of a new mandate or extension of time, could be an over
stretch.


16. (C) The South-South has played this conference well
thus far. The zone has kept trained on its goal of increased
resource control, and has demonstrated the political
maturity and sophistication necessary to advance that
objective by forging strategic alliances. Resource
control is an idea whose time has come in the Nigerian
political context. The South-South success in dominating
the conference is all the more remarkable when we recall
that Obasanjo originally proscribed debate on resource
control as a "no-go" zone. However this success is
double-edged. South-South delegates have raised
expectations at home - perhaps more so than they can
deliver. While delegates might be willing to go home with
something between the 17 and 25 percent range, the reaction
from the homestead, particularly from the militias, is less
clear. The South-South will walk away from this conference
with some measure of increase in the oil derivation
formula. What,s questionable is whether it will be
enough. End Comment.


17. This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja.
HOWE