NIGERIA SOUTHERN GOVERNORS MUSE ABOUT NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001050

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2010
TAGS: NI PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: NIGERIA SOUTHERN GOVERNORS MUSE ABOUT NATIONAL
POLITICS


Classified By: Classified by CG Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings, Lagos Governor Bola
Tinubu and Anambra Governor Chris Ngige downplayed the
lasting import of the on-going National Political Reform
Conference (NPRC),sponsored by President Obasanjo. Neither
being allies of the President Obasanjo they both took
thorough delight in the firestorm erupting at the conference
over resource control and in seeing Obasanjo scramble in an
attempt to keep the conference from combusting. Governor
Tinubu stated presidential aspirants Buhari, Abubakar
(Atiku),and Babangida (IBB),have all approached him about
being their running mate in 2007. Meanwhile, for the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) national establishment,
Governor Ngige remains the houseguest who simply will not
leave. Despite having been kicked out of the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP) earlier this year, not only has Ngige
remained in office, but he has invited himself to all
official PDP functions. Ngige said he was biding time.
Either the PDP will crack due to the Obasanjo-Atiku feud or
Atiku will recapture control of the party during its 2006
convention. Either way, Ngige has cast his lot with Atiku,
as a rapprochement with Obasanjo appears chimerical. End
Summary.

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NPRC - Egg on Obasanjo's Face?
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2. (C) In a June 16 meeting with the Consul General to
primarily discuss measures to improve the U.S. Consulate's
security posture, Governor Tinubu expectorated at the NPRC
convoked by President Obasanjo. Tinubu steamed that
President Obasanjo's plan A of extending his tenure had
apparently crashed at the conference due to lack of support.
Plan B of banning key rivals, Buhari and Babangida, also had
not garnered sufficient support. In trying too blatantly,
Obasanjo had spurred his opponents to ally against his
interests.


3. (C) Tinubu speculated Obasanjo was now left with Plan C --
to select a surrogate to run for president. Tinubu claimed
that Obasanjo provided a glimpse into his latest thinking
during World Bank President Wolfowitz's recent Nigerian
visit. At that time, Obasanjo intimated that he would not
run but was confident his reforms would perpetuate because
pro-Obasanjo reformists like Minister of the Federal
Territory Nasser El Rufai, Finance Minister Iweala, and
budget maven Oby Esekwesili will remain in place after 2007.
The only way Obasanjo can guarantee the offices of this trio
beyond 2007 is if he controls the presidency after 2007. And
the only way to assure such control is through the victory of
a hand-picked successor, Tinubu postulated.


4. (C) In a June 23 meeting with the CG, Anambra Governor
Chris Ngige discounted the significance of the NPRC. He
questioned how decisions of this advisory body could be made
legal and binding, particularly given the enmity between the
National Assembly and the NPRC. Ngige could not restrain his
laughter at seeing Obasanjo bound into the political bog of
the conference - resource control. He hoped Obasanjo plays
the issue so lamely as to embitter both the South and the
North. For his part, Ngige saw the issue of resource control
as a very practical one: give me enough money to run my state
and I don't care how much any one else gets. Ngige stated he
would encourage governors to further bother Obasanjo by
insisting any increase in the allocation to the oil producing
states be deducted from the federal government's allotment,
and not be a mere re-apportionment of funds amongst states.

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Tinubu Says He's Being Courted for VP
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5. (C) Tinubu mentioned that VP Atiku and ANPP presidential
candidate Buhari both are courting him as a running mate.
He has been noncommittal, although he favors Atiku, a
long-time friend. Buhari's attendance at the June 12
Democracy Day celebrations in Lagos was no coincidence,
Tinubu claimed. In addition to meeting the governor, Buhari
met Yoruba elders, according to Tinubu. Tinubu characterized
these meetings as part of Buhari's support-building process.


6. (C) Current VP Atiku wants to keep Tinubu close at
hand;the two friends continue to muse about forming a new
party together. However, Tinubu said he was aware the VP's
interest in gaining the PDP presidential nomination trumps
their considerations for now. If Obasanjo somehow reconciled
himself to Atiku's presidential candidacy, a trade-off might
be Atiku selecting an Obasanjo favorite as running mate.
This would not be Tinubu. In such a scenario, Atiku would
drop Tinubu without remorse, the governor acknowledged.
Conversely, should Obasanjo and Atiku remain estranged and
the VP move to separate his wing of the party and form
another party, he will need a running mate with substantial
support in the south. Tinubu believes he can answer that
bill.


7. (C) Lastly, Tinubu said IBB has made overtures. However,
Tinubu opined that even sidling toward IBB could turn him
into a leper in the South-West given IBB's annulment of the
Abiola electoral victory in 1993. Tinubu said most Yorubas
would never countenance such an alliance. IBB probably
figured this probe was a long shot but ever the schemer he
also knew he had little to lose by asking.

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Meanwhile in Anambra, Ngige Hangs On and Waits for 2006
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8. (C) Ngige told the CG security has improved in Anambra.
Ngige said Obasanjo had grown weary of the embarrassment
caused by his curious relationship with political heavy Chris
Uba and the entire Anambra saga. As a result, Ngige said Uba
was feeling much less protected, and now was rarely seen in
the state. Ngige claimed Uba spends most of his time in
neighboring Enugu state, home of the mercurial governor
Nnamani, a political ally of Uba and President Obasanjo.
Concerning to his own fortunes, Ngige remains unflappable.
The governor continues his quest to be re-instated into the
PDP. Ngige said he was equally confident he will prevail in
the electoral court case, brought by Peter Obi and the All
People's Grand Alliance (APGA).


9. (C) Regarding presidential politics, Ngige told CG while
President Obasanjo has wrested control of the PDP national
hierarchy, the PDP rank and file and its grassroots
organization belong to VP Atiku. Obasanjo has blundered by
trying to grab control of the party this early. It will be
difficult, if not impossible, to keep glued together these
diverse personalities and disparate interests until the 2007
elections. "The president is dancing hard as he can, but the
music has not even begun," Ngige guffawed. Ngige predicted
Obasanjo's control would unravel by the 2006 convention, when
the party would shift decisively in favor of Atiku. If
somehow Obasanjo managed to retain control of the party,
Atiku would bolt and take with him the bulk of the
rank-and-file, Ngige predicted. In that case, the PDP will
become a living ghost of itself -- neither completely dead,
nor alive but weakened to the point of not being able to hold
power.

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Comment
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10. (C) A Tinubu vice presidency is in the realm of
possibility with Atiku or Buhari, but is also unlikely. For
Tinubu to become someone's running mate, he will have to play
his cards perfectly and yet still rely on Providence to do
the remainder. After eight years of Obasanjo, many Nigerians
do not want to see a Yoruba as vice-president. Moreover,
Tinubu's Alliance for Democracy (AD) party was decimated
during the 2003 elections. He cannot be counted on to carry
the southwest. However, he does have some attractive points.
Lagos is a big prize in presidential elections. If it is
not Nigeria's California, it is at least New York or Texas.
Also Yorubaland, the Southwest, is half Muslim. Tinubu, a
moderate Yoruba Muslim, could attract southern Muslims as
well as Yoruba nationalists. For a northern candidate who
believes he has the three geo-political zones of his area in
hand, Tinubu could be a viable mate. If Buhari is to be the
lead man, his ANPP and Tinubu's AD must strike an alliance.
If the lead is to be Atiku, the VP would have to leave the
PDP and form a party with Tinubu. Yet, there are other
southern governors that electorally would make a better match
for Atiku. In the end, Tinubu will keep his line out, but
neither Buhari nor Atiku will likely take the hook unless
other more attractive possibilities fade away.
HOWE