Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05KUWAIT5186
2005-12-19 10:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kuwait
Cable title:  

FREEDOM AGENDA: HEATED DEBATE OVER ELECTORAL

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM KWMN KU FREEDOM AGENDA 
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VZCZCXRO9607
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHKU #5186/01 3531014
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 191014Z DEC 05
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2234
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 005186 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KWMN KU FREEDOM AGENDA
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: HEATED DEBATE OVER ELECTORAL

REFORM DESPITE POSTPONEMENT OF DISCUSSION UNTIL JUNE 2006

REF: A. KUWAIT 5136

B. KUWAIT 5016

C. KUWAIT 4740

D. KUWAIT 4460

E. 04 KUWAIT 1705

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Matthew H. Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 005186

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KWMN KU FREEDOM AGENDA
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: HEATED DEBATE OVER ELECTORAL

REFORM DESPITE POSTPONEMENT OF DISCUSSION UNTIL JUNE 2006

REF: A. KUWAIT 5136

B. KUWAIT 5016

C. KUWAIT 4740

D. KUWAIT 4460

E. 04 KUWAIT 1705

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Matthew H. Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: On December 12, the National Assembly
voted to postpone discussion on proposals to reduce the
number of electoral constituencies, a key political reform,
until June 30, 2006 (ref A). The vote comes amid heated
public debate over the issue. Top government officials
recently stated publicly their support for a reduction from
the current 25 constituencies to 10. The National Assembly,
however, is divided on the issue: most pro-government MPs
oppose the reform, while many liberal and Islamist MPs
support the reduction. The majority of Kuwait's political
associations also support the reduction. The Prime Minister
told us privately that he does not want to see the Government
take a clear position on an issue that still so evenly
divides the Assembly. The National Assembly Speaker offered
us his personal view that the current Assembly would not act
on the issue. While supporters agree on the need for a
reduction, they disagree considerably on the number and
geographic distribution of the fewer districts, politically
sensitive issues which could dramatically affect the
composition of the National Assembly. Another seldom
addressed aspect of the reform is how many votes each voter
would get in the reduced districts; some proposals would
offer few improvements over the current system (ref E).


2. (C) Supporters of the reform argue the reduction would
force candidates to campaign on political issues rather than
familial, tribal, or sectarian connections, and is a crucial
next step towards broader political reform in the country.
Many pro-reform MPs see the postponement of discussion on
reduction proposals as proof of the Government's insincere
support for political reform. Illustrating what is at stake,

liberal columnist Dr. Ahmed Al-Rubei characterized the debate
over the reduction as "a battle between the forces of
democracy and those surviving on a monopolistic and corrupt
system. It is a battle to free this society and its
parliament from the stranglehold of corruption." End
summary.

Government Publicly Backs Ten Constituencies
--------------


3. (SBU) In a November 22 meeting with pro-government MPs,
Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah clearly stated the Government's
support for reducing the number of constituencies to ten.
"The reduction will happen and there is no way to change
that," he reportedly told the MPs. Interior Minister Shaykh
Nawaf Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, who heads the ministerial
committee reviewing the issue (ref D),quickly echoed the
Prime Minister's comments, saying the current electoral
system "has encouraged tribalism, sectarianism, and
factionalism."


4. (C) Minister of Public Works Bader Nasser Al-Humaidi
reiterated the Government's support for the reduction in a
December 7 meeting with the Ambassador, arguing that fewer
districts would be "good for democracy and stability." Under
the current electoral system, most MPs worry more about their
own narrow interests than national interests, he said. If
the reform were adopted the next National Assembly would be
"very different from this one" and would be able to "act
faster" on important issues, he argued.


5. (C) National Assembly Speaker Jassem Al-Khorafi both
publicly and privately to the Ambassador (ref B) stated his
support for ten constituencies, clarifying his previously
ambiguous position on the reform. He cautioned, though, that
there was "no consensus" on the geographical distribution of
the fewer (but enlarged) constituencies, which he
characterized as a "thorny issue." However, in a December 17
conversation with the DCM, Al-Khorafi said he doubted that
the current Assembly would act on the various electoral
reform proposals. He thought electoral reform would be more
likely to come about after parliamentary elections in 2007.

National Assembly Divided
--------------


6. (SBU) The National Assembly is divided on the issue.
Nearly all pro-government MPs oppose the reduction on the
grounds that it would increase support for Islamist political

KUWAIT 00005186 002 OF 003


associations. Supporters of the reform argue these "service
deputies" actually fear the reduction would erode their
political support, which depends almost entirely on their
ability to obtain government favors for their constituents.
The Independent Bloc, a coalition of 18 pro-government MPs,
publicly announced its strong opposition to the reform and
even argued for an increase in the number of constituencies.


7. (SBU) The majority of Islamist and liberal MPs, though
disagreeing on most other issues, agree the reduction is a
critical component of broader political reform in the
country. Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, liberal
MP Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager, recently argued that "the
reduction...will definitely and sharply kill the phenomenon
of buying votes as well as transferring registered voters
from one constituency to another." Islamist Shi'a MP Dr.
Hassan Jowhar said the reduction would force candidates to
campaign on political platforms rather than personal
relationships. Islamist MP Jassem Al-Kandari stressed the
reduction was "the door to political reform" in Kuwait.


8. (SBU) There is also almost unanimous support for the
reduction among Kuwait's political associations, which stand
to gain politically from more issues-based elections.

Pro-Reform MPs Question Government Sincerity
--------------


9. (C) Many MPs supporting electoral reform question the
Government's commitment to reducing the number of
constituencies. Deputy National Assembly Speaker Meshari
Al-Anjari told Poloff on December 14 the vote to postpone
discussion of reduction proposals "indicated the Government
is not serious about political reform." Al-Anjari argued
that with its 16 ministers the Government could easily pass
any reduction proposal, but chose not to because it would
lose influence in the National Assembly. Al-Anjari claimed
the reduction would limit the widespread practices of vote
buying and vote transferring. The Prime Minister offered a
different take on the influence of the Cabinet's 16 votes.
In a casual conversation on the subject during the visit of
former President Bush, Shaykh Sabah said the Assembly was
evenly divided on electoral reform. Using the Cabinet's
votes to support either wide would be divisive and would
undermine public acceptance.


10. (C) Shi,a MP Hassan Jowhar told Poloff December 11 that
the Government was not only against the reduction, but was
actively working to prevent its implementation. During a
December 11 meeting in support of the reduction, Islamist MP
Abdullah Akkash argued that the Government's inconsistency on
the issue proved it did not want the reform. This view was
echoed by other MPs who attended the event. Additionally,
liberal MP Ali Al-Rashed told PolChief December 18 the fact
that the GOK, which had proposed the Assembly discuss the
reduction proposals on February 13, voted for a June date was
further proof "it was not serious about reform." He
commented that a June 30 discussion date, approximately one
month before the summer recess, effectively killed the issue.

Reduction Proposals Differ Significantly
--------------


11. (SBU) While supporters of the reform agree on the need
for the reduction, they disagree considerably on the number
and geographic distribution of the fewer districts,
politically sensitive issues which could dramatically affect
the composition of the National Assembly. Proposals range
from ten constituencies to one, and one proposal even calls
for maintaining 25 constituencies, but allowing voters to
vote in any constituency.


12. (C) MP Al-Anjari told Poloff he introduced a proposal to
merge the current 25 constituencies into five, each with ten
representatives. Under this system, each voter could cast
four votes, which he argued would prevent a particular group,
sect, or tribe from dominating any one constituency. The
National Democratic Alliance, a liberal political
association, also made the case for five constituencies. The
controversial Islamist Ummah Party put forward a similar
proposal, but called for the creation six districts.


13. (C) Shi,a MP Hassan Jowhar told Poloff he also
submitted a proposal to reduce the number to five
constituencies with ten representatives each. According to
his proposal, each voter would be allowed to vote for three
representatives, a system he said would encourage candidates
to run on three-person "lists." He predicted only 15
Islamist candidates could be elected in this system, though

KUWAIT 00005186 003 OF 003


he failed to explain why this was the case.

Female Candidates Could Benefit
--------------


14. (SBU) The addition of females to the voting pool after
the May 2005 passage of women's suffrage legislation is also
likely to force candidates to campaign more on political
issues than on "wasta" (connections). Many observers argue a
reduction would also increase the possibility of female
candidates being elected in the 2007 parliamentary elections,
although the prevailing consensus is that women are unlikely
to be elected for a variety of other reasons.

Shi'a Concern
--------------


15. (C) Several Shi'a MPs have expressed concern that a
reduction could disadvantage Kuwait's Shi'a community,
approximately 287,000 of the 956,000 Kuwaiti citizens. Shi'a
MP Saleh Ashour told Poloff if either of the two reduction
proposals introduced by the Government last year had been
adopted only "three to four" Shi'a MPs could have been
elected in any election. (Note: There are currently five
Shi'a MPs in the National Assembly. End note.) Another
Shi'a MP, Yousef Al-Zalzalah, has expressed similar concerns
in meetings with Emboffs.

What Is At Stake?
--------------


16. (U) Under the current electoral system, constituencies
average 5,500 eligible voters, each being able to cast two
votes; the voting system is single-round, first-two-past the
post. With so few voters per constituency, electoral margins
are remarkably low. Many current MPs were elected with fewer
than 1,000 votes -- two by only three votes -- and well over
half with fewer than 2,000 votes. If the number of
constituencies were reduced to ten, there would be an average
of 13,750 voters per constituency. The addition of female
voters would more than double this number, drastically
reducing the possibility for the sort of electoral corruption
believed to be widespread. A reduction to only five
constituencies, (very unlikely),would have an even greater
effect.

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