FREEDOM AGENDA: ENERGY MINISTER'S VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 004647

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR TSOU
STATE FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ARPI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI PREL SOCI PTER PINR KU FREEDOM AGENDA SUCCESSION
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: ENERGY MINISTER'S VIEWS ON
ELECTORAL DISTRICT REFORM, PRESS LAW, PARTIES, AND FAMILY
MATTERS

REF: STATE 152818

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (b)


1. (C) Summary: Responding to the Ambassador's inquiries
about elements of the "Freedom Agenda" during a meeting on
October 30, ruling family member and Energy Minister Shaykh
Ahmad Fahd Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah said most National Assembly
members "don't know how many voting constituencies they
want," and that those who have even agreed on the same number
"don't know what kind (of system) they want." While on one
hand he said that "the Government is serious" about its
proposal to reduce the number of electoral districts, he
indicated that it would not really matter whether the number
ended up being one, five, ten or thirty. "The only surprise
(in the outcome of the voting under a new constituency plan)
would be the first time," he explained, "then you know how to
get what you want."


2. (C) Shaykh Ahmad said that he thought the new press law
would go through and that it was "a good law." He said that
he saw political parties as an inevitability (that he had
long supported),and that the GOK would "have to accept it."
The Minister offered a guarded but candid assessment of the
Al-Sabah family's succession plans, saying "we are a
traditional family, and will solve family issues in a
traditional way." While he vaguely referred to something
happening "after Ramadan," he was clear in indicating that it
was the Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah, and not the Amir, who
was the main force slowing any effort to nudge aside the
ailing Crown Prince.


3. (C) Comment: Shaykh Ahmed is a lightening rod for those
in Kuwait critical of the government. He is often accused of
corruption, but specifics are rarely supplied. He has, by
far, the highest political profile of any the "next
generation" Al-Sabah family members and, also unlike most of
the Al-Sabah family, he actually enjoys the rough and tumble
of internal politics. He also relishes the high visibility
accorded to him as OPEC Chairman during the phenomenal rise
in oil prices in 2005. While he shows a few signs of
restlessness with the ponderous decision-making tempo of the
older generation of Al-Sabahs, (he's 42),he is loyal to
Shaykh Sabah, while being well-positioned and possessing
plenty of time to move up the leadership ladder. (End
Summary/Comment)

Constituencies: "1, 5, 10, It Doesn't Matter"
-------------- -


4. (C) During an October 30 meeting with ruling family
member and Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmad Fahd Al-Ahmad
Al-Sabah, the Ambassador asked for the Minister's thoughts on
a number of Freedom Agenda items (reftel). The Minister said
that "some National Assembly members want five, some ten, and
some thirty" electoral constituencies, and that even the ones
who agreed on a number, such as the GOK-supported proposal of
ten, did not know "what kind of ten they want." While he
said that the GOK "is serious" about its proposal to reduce
the number of electoral districts, he also said that "it
would not really matter how many" in the long run. "One,
five, ten," he joked, "it doesn't matter to us."


5. (C) Shaykh Ahmad said that the more important issue
related to reform of the districts would be changing the
rules so that, if there were ten electoral districts with
five representatives elected from each one, each voter could
only vote for two candidates. That way, he explained, there
would be more diverse representation among each constituency,
and more even representation across the different religious,
social and political groups in Kuwait. He compared any
future electoral districting changes to the recent decision
to grant women the right to vote: "The only surprises would
occur the first time that women exercised their vote and the
first time voting was conducted in a new district format.
After that, "you know how to get what you want."

Press Law "Good", Political Parties "Will Happen"
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The Minister said that he thought the new press law
would pass through the National Assembly, and that it was "a
good law." His said there should be proper punishment for
libel and defamation by the press. "If you keep the fines
high enough (for libel)," he said, "you can allow as much
freedom of the press as you want." He noted that the only
point of the law still under internal discussion was whether
the Council of Ministers should have a role in approving new
media outlets. He opined that this would be a good idea in
the beginning, but that it was not a major issue that would
hold up the legislation.


7. (C) Political parties are an inevitability in Kuwait,
Shaykh Ahmad explained, recalling that he had advocated for
political parties five years ago. "Parties will happen now
or in the future," he said, "we (the Al-Sabah) have to accept
it." On all of these issues, he noted, the GOK must go
"stage by stage" and not try to do too much at once.


It's All In The Family
--------------


8. (C) When asked about the recent public discussion of
succession plans for the country's leadership, Shaykh Ahmad
was both vague and surprisingly candid. He said that the
Al-Sabah are "a traditional family, and will solve family
issues in a traditional way." At one point he vaguely
referred to something happening "after the Eid," but did not
provide any additional details. He seemed to draw a
distinction between himself and those in the ruling family
around his age, and the older generation made up of the Amir,
Crown Prince, Prime Minister and National Guard Chief Shaykh
Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah. "Their generation has their
points, their way," he said, "we just have to accept it."


9. (C) He said that Shaykh Salem's recent comments calling
for the formation of a tripartite committee to run the
country did not surprise anyone in the leadership, because
"they all came up together" and the Amir, Crown Prince and
Prime Minister "know that Shaykh Salem is not a statesman"
and could not take a leadership position himself. He said
that, besides the publicly reported statements by the Amir of
his trust in the Prime Minister, the Amir has said the same
thing numerous times in private gatherings and other
settings. Shaykh Fahd said that, despite the accepted wisdom
that it was the Amir who was keen to keep the Crown Prince in
his position, the "real story" was that the Prime Minister
was the main supporter of going slow in moving the ailing
Crown Prince aside. He said that the Amir had complete trust
in Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah.


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LEBARON