LEADING MP "SCARED TO DEATH" ABOUT LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 004438

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KU NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SUCCESSION FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: LEADING MP "SCARED TO DEATH" ABOUT LEADERSHIP
"CRISIS"; OUTLINES NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRIORITIES

REF: A. KUWAIT 4406


B. KUWAIT 4403

C. KUWAIT 4372

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: The Ambassador met October 15
with Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager, a National Assembly member
(MP) and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee.
Commenting on the recent ruling family spat over the
country's future leadership (reftels),sparked by National
Guard Chief Shaykh Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah's call for
the creation of a three-member committee to run the country,
Al-Sager said, "I am scared to death." Al-Sager stressed
repeatedly that the current situation constituted a "crisis."
"If anything happens in the ruling family, you (the United
States) will be directly affected," Al-Sager commented.
Turning to National Assembly politics, Al-Sager said there
were three priorities for the upcoming National Assembly
session: 1) approval of the northern oil fields development
project, known as Project Kuwait; 2) passage of the Press and
Publications Law; 3) reduction of the number of electoral
districts. Al-Sager predicted both Project Kuwait and the
Press and Publications Law would be approved, but doubted
there was enough support currently to reduce the number of
electoral districts, which he said was the most important
legislation and a key element of political reform.


2. (C) Comment: Al-Sager very much wants to see prompt
decisions by the Al-Sabahs to resolve the succession issue.
His tendency to over-dramatize the situation reflects his
strong desire for clear, coherent Kuwaiti leadership. End
summary and comment.

"Scared to Death" about Leadership "Crisis"
--------------


3. (C) In an October 15 meeting with the Ambassador,
Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee MP Mohammed Jassem
Al-Sager said he was "scared to death" about Kuwait's recent
controversy over the country's future leadership (reftels).
Al-Sager stressed repeatedly that "we are in a crisis" and
predicted there would be changes soon in Kuwait's top
leaders. He said that "the Amir is very sick, the Crown
Prince doesn't know anyone around him, and the Prime Minister
has a pacemaker." "We are living on luck," he added. Asked
about possible future leadership scenarios, Al-Sager said the
only "realistic" scenario was for Shaykh Sabah to become
Crown Prince. Al-Sager continued: "The problem is that the
Salem branch of the Al-Sabah family wants a share of the
cake. The issue is whether or not Shaykh Sabah will give it
to them."


4. (C) Al-Sager cautioned that if the ruling family does not
resolve its problems, critical issues would remain unresolved
and key legislation would stall in the National Assembly.
Asked for clarification, Al-Sager explained that the National
Assembly is currently divided between groups loyal to
different factions of the family. "Some MPs support Shaykh
Salem Al-Ali, and he is working on them," Al-Sager said. He
added, "You don't want to see a confrontation between two
sides of the royal family." He suggested that, in the
extreme, such a conflict could turn "violent." "If anything
happens in the ruling family, you will be directly affected,"
Al-Sager stressed to the Ambassador. "You should help us
solve this problem," he concluded. The Ambassador told
Al-Sager that the U.S. was unlikely to get directly involved
in arbitrating Kuwait's internal political disputes, and that
we saw no transition scenario which would bring fundamental
changes to the strong U.S.-Kuwaiti relationship.

Predicts Press Law and Project Kuwait Will Pass;
Electoral Reform Will Not
-------------- ---


5. (C) Al-Sager said there were three priorities for the
upcoming National Assembly session: 1) approval of the
northern oil fields development project, known as Project
Kuwait; 2) passage of the Press and Publications Law; and 3)
reduction of the number of electoral districts, which
according to Al-Sager was the most important legislation.
Al-Sager predicted both the Press and Publications Law and
Project Kuwait would be approved by the National Assembly.
Al-Sager said he supported reducing the number of electoral
districts from 25 to five, or even two, but doubted the
number of districts would be reduced to even ten since the
Government was ambivalent about the reform. The Ambassador
told Al-Sager he had expressed the USG's strong support for
electoral reform in numerous meetings with GOK officials and
would continue to do so.


6. (C) Asked about other key legislation, Al-Sager said the
United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Status of
Forces Agreement (SOFA),which was approved by the Foreign
Affairs Committee, "would not be a problem in the National
Assembly." He also promised the Ambassador to push for the
passage of the long-stalled Article 98 legislation. Al-Sager
said he "did not know" if new labor legislation would be
passed this session, noting that it had yet to be approved by
the Cabinet. "If the Government approves it in the Cabinet,
I do not think there will be a problem here in the National
Assembly," Al-Sager said.

Political Reform Stymied
--------------


7. (C) Al-Sager told the Ambassador three political reforms
were essential in Kuwait: 1) recognition of political
parties, 2) passage of the Press and Publications Law, and 3)
reduction of the number of electoral constituencies, which he
said was critical to broader political reform. Al-Sager
admitted that recognition of political parties and electoral
district reduction were unlikely to be approved anytime soon.
Based on regional experience, the Prime Minister still sees
political parties as a potentially destabilizing force, he
said.

Possible Ouster of "Not a Liberal"
--------------


8. (C) Al-Sager told the Ambassador he might not be
re-elected as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee this
National Assembly session. He complained the Government was
not giving him much support and noted that a new coalition of
MPs could oust him. He also mentioned that he will soon
start his own newspaper once the new press law permits new
publications. Asked if the newspaper would be
liberal-leaning (in the Kuwaiti context),Al-Sager said that
while he was liberal on "economic, financial, and political
issues," he was "very conservative" on social issues. He
said he preferred not to be labeled a "liberal" in Kuwait,
since that connoted liberal social values. (Note: The
Al-Sager family is currently a co-owner of the influential
Al-Qabas newspaper. End note.)

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