KUWAITIS SPECULATE ABOUT OUTCOME OF IRAQI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000404

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KISL KU IZ
SUBJECT: KUWAITIS SPECULATE ABOUT OUTCOME OF IRAQI
ELECTIONS BUT THIRD LOCAL SHOOT-OUT TAKES MEDIA CENTER-STAGE

REF: KUWAIT 0036

Classified By: DCM Matthew Tueller for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: A third gun battle between
militants and Kuwaiti law enforcement officials stole the
January 30 media spotlight from what was genuine and growing
interest in Iraq's elections. Nonetheless, many Kuwaitis,
while hopeful for successful elections in Iraq, are concerned
that their failure could lead to more unrest, terror, and
possibly an Iraqi civil war. Kuwait's Islamists, although
equally hopeful, are leery of a Shi'a dominant Iraqi National
Assembly which they believe could marginalize Iraqi Sunnis
and possibly politically empower Kuwaiti Shi'a by exerting
influence on the GOK to raise local Shi'a political concerns.
While some would have preferred to see elections postponed
until there was a curb in the violence, the desire to see a
stable and prosperous Iraq is almost universal. There is
likely to be a fringe element that distrusts the electoral
process because of U.S. and Coalition involvement, but most
understand that Kuwait will be among the first beneficiaries
of a stable and democratic Iraq. End Summary and Comment.

Praise for the Effort...
--------------


2. (U) The media's coverage of election day in Iraq has been
completely drowned out by a third shoot-out between police
and militants in Kuwait City. In the recent run-up to the
elections, however, many Kuwaitis have been actively watching
and speculating on the electoral developments in Iraq.
Kuwaitis, officially and unofficially, are hopeful for
success but remain concerned about the growing power of any
future Iraqi government. Because of the ever-present memory
of the 1990 Iraqi invasion, most are ultimately more
concerned about having an Iraq that lives in peace with its
neighbors than who will win more seats in the parliamentary
elections.

- Advisor to PM Shaykh Sabah, Sami Al-Nisf said it is
irrelevant who wins as long as democracy and pluralism
prevail.

- Shi'a professor and women's rights activist Dr. Maasouma
Al-Mubarak praised the election calling it the birth of a new
democratic Iraq for the first time in history.

- Liberal Kuwait University professor of political science
Shamlan Al-Issa called the process the most "dangerous and
strange democratic elections in the world." While he
supports the election process and expects the Shi'a to become
the political majority, he raised questions about the
democratic nature of the elections because no clear-cut
platforms have been presented and most Iraqis don't even know
the names of the candidates.

... But Fearing the Result
--------------


3. (U) The prospect of a Shi'a-majority government in Baghdad
worries some Kuwaitis, particularly Sunni Islamists. Some
believe that Iranians are trying to influence the outcome of
the elections --- there has been speculation that Iranians
are attempting to buy Iraqi ration cards because these serve
as a valid document for voter registration. Much of this
concern stems from a fear that Kuwaiti Shi'a will become more
politically empowered should a Baghdad government be
dominated by Iraqi Shi'a and that Iran will hold more sway in
the region. Another element is that some Islamists believe
that Iraqi Sunnis make up far more of Iraq's population than
currently estimated -- some believe Sunnis are in the
majority in Iraq -- and do not trust that elections will be
free and fair if Sunnis end up in the extreme minority.
(Note: One third of Kuwaitis are Shi'a. While
underrepresented in official GOK positions, they are an
accepted minority in Kuwaiti society where some of the top
business and military leaders are Shi'a. There are 5 Shi'a
MPs in the 50-member National Assembly and the only Shi'a
Minister, Information Minister Mohammed Abulhassan recently
resigned from his post (reftel). End note.) PM Shaykh Sabah
reportedly recently stressed the Kuwaiti Shi'a are "sons of
Kuwait," and not of Iraq or Iran.

- Former Oil minister and liberal Ali Al-Baghli said Kuwaitis
are worried about the elections fearing that if not
successful, civil war and terrorism could spread and affect
the security and stability of Kuwait.

- Hard-line Salafi Movement MP Dr. Walid Al-Tabtabaei
expressed concern that Iraq's Sunni voters would be
marginalized during the election to the benefit of the Shi'a.


4. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.
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