Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05KUWAIT3677
2005-08-16 12:05:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Kuwait
Cable title:  

REVIVED AL-SABAH DEBATE OVER SUCCESSION;

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KU PDEM 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 003677 

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSAU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KU PDEM
SUBJECT: REVIVED AL-SABAH DEBATE OVER SUCCESSION;
LEADERSHIP CHANGE RUMORED TO BE POSSIBLE BY END OF YEAR

REF: A. KUWAIT 3669

B. KUWAIT 3580

C. 04 KUWAIT 4540

D. 04 KUWAIT 3580

E. 04 KUWAIT 3391

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 003677

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSAU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KU PDEM
SUBJECT: REVIVED AL-SABAH DEBATE OVER SUCCESSION;
LEADERSHIP CHANGE RUMORED TO BE POSSIBLE BY END OF YEAR

REF: A. KUWAIT 3669

B. KUWAIT 3580

C. 04 KUWAIT 4540

D. 04 KUWAIT 3580

E. 04 KUWAIT 3391

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Summary: Sources indicate a major change in
leadership may take place in Kuwait, possibly before the end
of August. Although Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmed
Al-Jaber Al-Sabah is considered the primary candidate for
Amir, his succession is not a foregone conclusion. According
to several sources, Shaykh Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah is
a serious contender. "Everyone smells blood and wants a
piece of the power," one Al-Sabah family member and
self-described "close confidant" of the PM told PolOff. The
renewed debate on succession in Kuwait was sparked by the
return of Amir Shaykh Jaber Al-Sabah on August 9 from
extended medical treatment in the United States and the
recent death of Saudi King Fahd. If either the Amir or Crown
Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah dies without
an appointed successor, the National Assembly would be drawn
into the succession process, a possibility sources indicate
the Al-Sabah family would like to avoid. We believe a
leadership change would have little immediate impact on U.S.
interests in Kuwait. End summary.

An Al-Sabah Predicts Change Is Around the Corner
-------------- ---


2. (S/NF) On August 13, PolOff met with Shaykh Mohammed
Abdullah Mubarak Al-Sabah, who said he was a "close
confidant" of Shaykh Sabah and was perceived to be one of
three people capable of influencing the PM (ref B for
additional bio information). Asked about succession in
Kuwait, Shaykh Mohammed confirmed that there was an internal
struggle within the Al-Sabah family over the Amirship and
that a decision on succession would most likely be made
before the end of the year, or possibly sooner. "Everyone
smells blood and wants a piece of the power," he said.
Although he said he could not imagine anyone but the PM
becoming Amir, Shaykh Mohammed acknowledged that "only Shaykh

Sabah knows" who would succeed the Amir.


3. (S/NF) Of the numerous factions within the Al-Sabah
family, the Al-Ahmed line of the Jaber branch is currently
the most powerful, particularly in numbers, Shaykh Mohammed
confided, adding that the Salem branch was "out." Echoing
previous statements from Al-Sabah members (ref B),Shaykh
Mohammed said that the alternation between the Jaber and
Salem branches of the family was "only a historical
coincidence." He confirmed that the Al-Sabah family in
general, and Shaykh Sabah in particular, was actively
discussing succession. (Note: Shaykh Mohammed received a
phone call at the end of our meeting telling him that the PM
had just met with the Amir. Shaykh Mohammed said they were
supposed to talk soon about succession and speculated that
this may have been that meeting. End note.)


4. (S/NF) Shaykh Mohammed mentioned rumors that Shaykh Salem
Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah, who was recently given the title
"His Highness" and is the third most senior member of the
Al-Sabah family after the Amir and the Crown Prince, was a
potential candidate. He dismissed this possibility saying
Shaykh Salem had publicly stated that he did not desire the
Amirship. In a meeting with the Ambassador on August 15,
Shaykh Salem confirmed that changes could come in the near
future, but he was not specific about who might take on new
leadership roles (ref A). (Note: Estimated to be 81 years
old, Shaykh Salem might be a short-term solution to the issue
of succession, placating the Salem branch of the Al-Sabah
family by allowing the traditional alternation with the Jaber
branch. If this scenario happens, the key questions will
then be who becomes Crown Prince, and will the positions of
Crown Prince and Prime Minister, separated in 2003, be
re-merged. End note.) Also, Foreign Minster Shaykh Dr.
Mohammed Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah would like power at some
point, Shaykh Mohammed added, "but we are not sure where this
will go."


5. (S/NF) Commenting that there are "murmurs" a decision on
succession would be made before year's end, Shaykh Mohammed
expressed hope that a new Amir would be announced before
Ramadan, which begins October 3, so that Kuwaitis could
celebrate the new Amir during the Ramadan festivities.

Media Contacts Suggest Imminent Succession Meeting
-------------- --------------


6. (C) In recent meetings, various media contacts
independently suggested that leadership changes in Kuwait
were imminent. On August 2, Mohammed Al-Jassem, former
editor-in-chief of Al-Watan newspaper and the host of the
Al-Hurra program Al-Majlis, speculated that both the Amir and
the Crown Prince would step aside in late August. Al-Jassem
predicted that Shaykh Salem would become the new Amir, not
the PM. Al-Jassem cited anecdotal evidence to support his
claim: a friend recently told him that Shaykh Salem told the
friend of changes he was planning on making when he became
Amir. Al-Jassem also said he heard that Shaykh Sabah had
begun informing Shaykh Salem of his actions, suggesting a
possible shift in power. He cited other anecdotal evidence
that two powerful shaykhs, whom he did not name, were
developing closer ties with Shaykh Salem in the hopes of
gaining influence with the future Amir.


7. (S) Adnan Qaqoon, the chief of local news for the
pro-government Arabic daily Al-Qabas, told PDOff in July that
ruling family members had been ordered to return to Kuwait by
late August for an important Al-Sabah family meeting, perhaps
to oversee the voluntary stepping-down of the Amir and/or the
Crown Prince, who are widely acknowledged as medically unfit
for their positions. Although such a move would be
unprecedented, Qaqoon said the Al-Sabah family would prefer
to avoid a messy, public confrontation over succession if
either leader passed away without a capable successor in
place. Qaqoon predicted that Shaykh Sabah would become Amir,
but said he was unsure what other changes might occur.


8. (C) Longtime columnist for Al-Rai Al-Aam newspaper and
author of a book on succession in Kuwait, Ahmed Al-Deyain
told Emboffs that a leadership change in Kuwait was possible,
but questioned whether a change would actually take place
before the death of either the Amir or the Crown Prince.
Although the death of King Fahd was a wake-up call to some
Al-Sabah, Al-Deyain said, given a choice between action and
inaction, the Al-Sabah usually choose inaction. Jassem
Boodai, owner and editor-in-chief of Al-Rai Al-Aam and a
close confidant of the PM, also intimated that there would be
a major Al-Sabah family meeting in August to discuss
succession. He did not offer any additional details. (Note:
We have noticed that most of the senior family members have
not gone abroad for vacation as of mid-August. End note.)

Amir and Crown Prince "in God's Waiting Room"
--------------


9. (C) The Amir's frail appearance on his return to Kuwait
August 9 from medical treatment in the United States and
unusually intense media coverage of the event renewed
speculation over succession in Kuwait. The Amir looked very
weak and was whisked in a wheelchair to a waiting car soon
after his plane landed (ref A). State broadcast media
carried continuous coverage of the Amir's life and rule
accompanied by patriotic songs the day of his return. On
August 10, all local newspapers published the same photo of
the Amir's return, portraying the frail leader with gray
hair. Although most pictures of the Amir continue to depict
him in good health and with black hair, when he returned to
Kuwait in 2004, his beard and hair were gray and undyed.
According to Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed Al-Sabah,
the Amir is suffering from Parkinson's disease.


10. (C) The Crown Prince also has serious health problems.
In 2001, he suffered serious brain damage from a stroke and
is now confined to a wheelchair. He does not speak and does
not appear to comprehend others' speech. Nonetheless, the
charade that he still exerts influence continues. There are
almost weekly news items of cables from the Crown Prince to
world leaders and pictures of him receiving senior Al-Sabah
family government officials. More recent newspaper photos
showed him being propped forward by an aid/bodyguard to kiss
the Amir after the Amir's return to Kuwait.

Succession Process A Family Matter
--------------


11. (C) The unforeseen death of either the Amir or the Crown
Prince without a capable, appointed successor would initiate
a complex constitutional process involving the National
Assembly in the succession. Shaykh Mohammed emphasized that
the family should do something before such an event occurs.
With Kuwait's free media, the process would be open to
extensive public scrutiny, an uncomfortable proposition for
the Al-Sabah family, Shaykh Mohammed concluded.


12. (U) Article 4 of Kuwait's 1962 Constitution clearly
details the succession process. Only descendants of Mubarak
Al-Sabah, the founder of modern Kuwait, are permitted to
become Amir. Although there are four branches of the Mubarak
family, tradition dictates that only the descendants of the
two main branches, Jaber and Salem, are considered candidates
for Amir. With one exception in 1965, succession has
alternated between these two branches of the family. Per
Article 4, a Crown Prince must be appointed by the Amir
within a year of accession and approved by a majority of the
National Assembly. If the Amir fails to designate a Crown
Prince or if the National Assembly vetoes his first choice,
he must nominate three descendants of Mubarak Al-Sabah, one
of whom is chosen by a majority of the National Assembly. If
the Amir dies before nominating a Crown Prince, the matter is
referred to the Cabinet, which votes on a new Amir in a
special session. While this is the formal procedure, the
real succession decisions are made by the Al-Sabah during
private family meetings.


13. (C) Al-Sabah family members are clearly aware of the
potential problems of succession in Kuwait if either the Amir
or the Crown Prince died without appointing a capable
successor. The issue of succession, however, is complicated
by internal family politics, as different factions compete to
place their candidate(s) in positions of power. Sources have
argued that the Crown Prince, incapable of assuming the
throne, should step aside of his own accord, (although it is
not clear to us that he is capable of independent action due
to his illness). If he refuses, the Amir could declare him
physically unfit for his position. The matter would then be
referred to the National Assembly, which would vote to remove
the Crown Prince after an independent medical examination. A
new heir would be chosen through the process outlined above.
Obviously, the Al-Sabah family would prefer to avoid such a
public spectacle. The Amir may avoid addressing the question
of succession and die in office; however, if, as our sources
indicate, the Al-Sabah family forces a decision be made on
succession, the Amir is likely to convince the Crown Prince
to step aside himself, clearing the way for the appointment
of a new heir.

Implications for U.S. Policy
--------------


14. (S/NF) A change of leadership in Kuwait would have
little immediate impact on U.S. interests in the country,
particularly if Shaykh Sabah, considered the de-facto ruler,
becomes Amir. Shaykh Sabah would likely continue to pursue
pragmatic policies, particularly with regard to Iraq,
regional security, and oil exports. Kuwaitis often attribute
slow decision-making in Kuwait to intra-family jockeying for
future position and influence. If a change at the top
eliminates some of the stagnation, as many believe, this
could serve U.S. interests in more rapid economic
liberalization and accelerated political reform.

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