Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05KUWAIT3422
2005-08-02 14:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kuwait
Cable title:  

IN KUWAIT, POLITICS AS USUAL AFTER DEATH OF SAUDI

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KWMN KISL KU 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 003422 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KWMN KISL KU
SUBJECT: IN KUWAIT, POLITICS AS USUAL AFTER DEATH OF SAUDI
KING FAHD

Classified By: Political Chief Natalie E. Brown for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 003422

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KWMN KISL KU
SUBJECT: IN KUWAIT, POLITICS AS USUAL AFTER DEATH OF SAUDI
KING FAHD

Classified By: Political Chief Natalie E. Brown for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The death of Saudi King Fahd elicited
little surprise in Kuwait. With both the Amir and the Crown
Prince old and ailing, however, King Fahd's death has renewed
speculation on Kuwait's own succession issues (septel).
Crown Prince Abdullah's accession to the Saudi throne will
have little impact on Saudi-Kuwait relations, sources say.
One Kuwaiti political observer predicted King Abdullah would
try to reassert control over the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC),particularly vis-a-vis relations with Qatar and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE). Post contacts disagreed over
King Abdullah's ability, and desire, to implement reforms.
All indications suggest it will be politics as usual in
Kuwait after King Fahd's death. End summary.

Kuwait Remembers the King
--------------


2. (SBU) While largely expected, Kuwaitis still reacted
emotionally to King Fahd's death. Kuwaiti newspapers ran
multiple-page articles covering King Fahd's death and
reflecting on his role in the liberation of Kuwait from Iraq
in 1991. August 2 is the fifteenth anniversary of Saddam
Hussein's invasion of Kuwait.

Affect on Saudi Politics
--------------


3. (C) On August 2, PolOff and PDOff met separately with
former editor-in-chief of Arabic daily Al-Watan Mohammed
Al-Jassem and Kuwaiti liberal Ahmed Deyain, both astute
political observers in Kuwait, to discuss the ramifications
of King Fahd's death. Reflecting on the impact of King
Fahd's death on Saudi internal politics, Al-Jassem said King
Abdullah's new power would allow him to implement reforms
over the objections of other family members, most notably
Prince Sultan, now Crown Prince, and Interior Minister Prince
Nayef. He predicted King Abdullah would release three
recently imprisoned reform activists, give women the right to
vote in national elections, and renew the battle against
Islamic extremists. Al-Jassem suggested the U.S. should
support these efforts "quietly."


4. (C) Deyain, however, argued that King Abdullah will still
face resistance to reform from Princes Sultan and Nayef, who
have considerable influence within the Saudi royal family.
Al-Jassem agreed that Prince Nayef was the greatest obstacle
to reform in Saudi Arabia, but was more optimistic about King
Abdullah's ability to circumvent him. Al-Jassem also noted
that Kuwaiti Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah does not like Saudi
Crown Prince Sultan, which might have political implications
should the Crown Prince become the next Saudi King.

Affect on Kuwait
--------------


5. (C) Deyain predicted the death of King Fahd would have
one of two effects on Kuwait: either the ruling family would
be spurred to address the succession question now, or, more
characteristically, the Prime Minister would delay a decision
on the issue as long as possible. Deyain speculated that the
Al-Sabahs would prefer to deal with the succession issue
within the family, rather than turn it over to a complicated
process involving the National Assembly. He suggested the
family might convince Crown Prince Shaykh Saad Al-Salim
Al-Sabah to abdicate, rather than be forced to resign.

Affect on GCC
--------------


6. (C) Al-Jassem speculated that King Abdullah would try to
reassert Saudi control over the GCC. He predicted Saudi
relations with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates would be
particularly affected. Deyain differed slightly arguing
that, while relations with Qatar and the UAE would remain
tense, Saudi political focus would shift from the Gulf
countries to other Arab states, notably Egypt and Syria.
Neither predicted major foreign policy shifts, however.

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