KUWAITIS EXPRESS CONCERN, UNEASE ABOUT NEW IRANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 002925

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM MARR KU IR KNPP
SUBJECT: KUWAITIS EXPRESS CONCERN, UNEASE ABOUT NEW IRANIAN
PRESIDENT

REF: A. KUWAIT 2900

B. KUWAIT 2893

Classified By: CDA Matthew Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: Prominent Kuwaitis expressed
unease with the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as
President of Iran during June 27 and 28 meetings with Poloff.
Although conceding that Ahmadinejad's election would
probably not bring about drastic changes to Iranian foreign
and domestic policy, most articulated concern over the
possible strengthening of Iran's hardline elements. Taking
this sentiment to the extreme, well-known political scientist
Dr. Sami Al-Faraj shared his concern that the election of
Ahamedinejad would speed up Iran's pursuit of nuclear
technology and lead to a shift in the regional balance of
power in favor of Iran. More than one person expressed the
belief that Ahmadinejad was incapable of standing up to the
Guardian Council and other entrenched powerful interests in
the country, and would likely not last long. Despite the
GOK's official congratulations, it is clear from our contacts
and local dailies that the election of Ahmadinejad is not
being met with optimism. It is likely that the
Iranian-Kuwaiti bilateral relationship will continue to be
characterized by unofficial wariness. Although Kuwait takes
pains to balance its relations with Iran by avoiding official
criticsm, there is little doubt as to whose side it takes in
the conflict over nuclear technology. The GOK is likely to
support any measure that will lead to a thawing of relations
between the U.S. and Iran, as it would reduce the threat of
Iranian attacks on Kuwaiti territory. End Summary and
Comment.

Worst Case Scenario: Iran Spreads Terrorism
--------------


2. (C) During a meeting on June 27, the director of the
Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies, Dr. Sami Al-Faraj told
Poloff the recent election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran
would push Iran towards extremist policies and tip the
balance of the power in the Gulf in the country,s favor.
Al-Faraj argued that the combination of high oil prices and a
buoying of hardline confidence in light of the elections
would significantly strengthen Iranian bargaining positions
on nuclear technology and the Kuwaiti-Iranian standoff over
the Al-Durra gasfield. Al-Faraj said that unlike two years
ago, Iran is not likely to accept the "carrot" approach to
negotiations. A self-confessed "devil's advocate," he
predicted Iranian negotiating positions would get tougher and
more extreme. Pointing out that nothing short of an attack
on Iran,s nuclear facilities would deter the country from
eventually obtaining nuclear weapons, he said a presumed
attack on Iran by the U.S. or Israel would almost certainly
lead to Iranian state-sponsored terrorism in Kuwait and other
GCC countries hosting U.S. military forces. Dr. Al-Faraj
said he has been working with Kuwait's military leadership in
an effort to prepare them for this possibility.


3. (C) Al-Faraj said that all GCC countries were deeply
concerned over both the potential environmental and national
security implications of Iranian nuclear efforts, but would
publicly express this concern only as an objection to the
possible environmental threat posed by the Bushehr nuclear
power plant. (Note: FM Dr. Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah has raised
the issue of environmental damage publicly and privately
during visits to Tehran. End Note.) He noted that the
currents in the Gulf move in a clockwise direction, and
Kuwait would bear the brunt of any environmental catastrophe
at Bushehr.

Leading Cleric Disappointed, Says Little will Change
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Moderate Shiite cleric Sayed Mohammed Baquer Al-Mohri
said he was disappointed with the outcome of the Iranian
elections during a June 28 meeting. Lamenting the defeat of
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom he called "a great
moderate leader," Al-Mohri said Ahmadinejad had already made
alarming statements indicating he wanted to return the
"culture of martyrdom" to Iran. Al-Mohri said this was a
path rejected by the religious community at Qom. He added
that the drafting of Iranian policy would remain in the hands
of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council and the
Rafsanjani-led Expediency Discernment Council.


5. (C) Asked for his assessment of how Ahmadinejad had won
the elections, Al-Mohri said he had connected successfully
with the poor, unemployed population of Iran, winning their
hearts and fulfilling a desire for change. Although
Ahmadineljad is "one of them," Al-Mohri said he doubts the
new president will be capable of successfully governing Iran.

KU Professor: Term Could End in Assassination
--------------

6. (C) Kuwait University Political Science Professor Dr.
Abdullah Sahar agreed with Al-Mohri during a June 28 meeting
with Poloff. Dr. Sahar said Ahmadinejad appeared to be
"naive" and predicted his term would end soon after it begins
with Ahmadinejad's removal or possibly even assassination.
He said the new president is not powerful enough to battle
Rafsanjani, the Guardian Council and the other vested
interests which rule Iran. He said the Iranian desire for
change had been responsible for Rafsanjani's loss in the
elections. On the nuclear issue, Dr. Sahar said that
economic interdependence and/or military action would be the
only ways to stop the Iranian race for nuclear weapons.

MP Says Ahmadinejad Unknown; Radical Change Unlikely
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Noting that Ahmadinejad is still an unknown in Kuwait,
leading Shiite MP and former Kuwaiti University Professor Dr.
Yousef Al-Zalzalah said moderate Shiites in Kuwait had
supported Rafsanjani once the race came down to just two
candidates. Al-Zalzalah said Iran is unlikley to take any
drastic foreign policy actions given the U.S. presence in
surrounding countries and the lessons it has learned from
coalition action in Iraq. Rather, he said Kuwait's major
concern was the nuclear power plant at Bushehr, which he said
was unsafe and could potentially severely damage the
environment in the Gulf region.


8. (C) Al-Zalzalah, who travels to Iran at least twice a
year, said he has seen a steady decrease in the radicalism of
the hardline regime elements over time. He said consistent
pressure by reformers has forced the hardliners to make small
concessions that have added up. He noted that the Tehran
International Airport now receives flights from dozens of
countries on a daily basis; this is in marked contrast to the
years following the revolution, he said, when religious
fervor and extremism isolated Iran from the world community.

A Dissenting Opinion
--------------


9. (C) Offering a dissenting opinion, Shiite intellectual Dr.
Bader Nader Al-Khodari told Poloff June 27 that Ahmadinejad
had defeated Rafsanjani in part because Iranians felt that
Rafsanjani would have been a "new Shah." He said that the
youth of Iran had voted for Ahmadinejad to protest the
widespread corruption and drug abuse which plagues the
country. Praising Ahmadinejad as a simple person, he said he
would definitely move to combat corruption, but added that he
would face difficulty because Rafsanjani still maintains his
postion as head of the Expediency Council.


*********************************************
Visit Embassy Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website
*********************************************
TUELLER