(C) KUWAITI AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN: IRAN FEARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 002508

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, INR-B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2015
TAGS: PREL PINR PARM KU IR KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS
SUBJECT: (C) KUWAITI AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN: IRAN FEARS
SANCTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

This cable contains biographical information. Please see
para. 9.


1. (C) Summary: During a June 4 meeting with Poloff and
PolMiloff, Kuwaiti Ambassador to Iran Majdi Al-Thufiri shared
his thoughts on the June 12 election, Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei's ability to control Iran's
security forces, the U.S.-Iranian relationship and Iran's
concerns over the poor state of its economy. Al-Thufiri said
Iran's leaders think it unlikely that the U.S. will take
military action against the country, but fear the potential
impact of economic sanctions. Echoing the sentiments of
other Kuwaitis, Al-Thufiri predicted that Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani would handily win the elections, as it is widely
recognized that he alone is capable of enacting much needed
economic reforms. Finally, Al-Thufiri shared details of a
January 2003 meeting during which Iranian FM Kamal Kharazi
made comments indicating Iranian ability to assess U.S.
military strength may have been very poor. End Summary.

Rafsanjani "Only Choice" in Elections
--------------


2. (C) Taking time out of a four-day visit to Kuwait to speak
with Poloff and PolMiloff, Kuwaiti Ambassador to the Islamic
Republic of Iran, Majdi Al-Thufiri said June 4 that former
President Rafsanjani was by far the most popular candidate of
those running for President in Iran. He said Rafsanjani was
the "only choice" for those who had hopes of reforming the
economy because he is the one candidate powerful enough to
influence Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Contradicting
reports that Rafsanjani and Khamenei do not get along,
Al-Thufiri said Rafsanjani was Khamenei's "favorite" and that
Khamenei had thrown his support fully behind him. Al-Thufiri
said Khamenei is concerned that low voter turnout during the
June 12 elections would harm the legitimacy of the elections
in the eyes of world opinion, and was therefore going to
great lengths to support candidates -- like Rafsanjani --
whom he believed would turn out large numbers of voters.


3. (C) Al-Thufiri said that if elected, Rafsanjani could be
expected to open Iran's economy to further foreign
investment, but would have to work very hard to do so.
Describing the Iranian political system as akin to the "North
Korean model," he said control was very centralized in the
upper echelons, but that each region had its own powerful
leaders and interests.

Supreme Leader May Not Control Security Forces
-------------- -


4. (C) Responding to a question from PolMiloff, Al-Thufiri
said it was not clear that Supreme Leader Khamenei would be
able to control Iran's security forces in the event of a
serious political crisis. He said the combination of unclear
lines of command and the current religious debate inside Qom
as to the viability of Velayat e Faquih would be complicating
factors in the event of a crisis. Asked if it was likely the
regime might counter future unrest with a Basij-led
crackdown, as it had in 1999, Al-Thufiri said no.

Regime Will "Do Anything" to Keep Power, Fears Sanctions
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Al-Thufiri said that hardliners in the Iranian
establishment "would do anything" to maintain their power,
and are acutely aware that the poor state of Iran's economy
was its main weakness. He said that although Iran was
uncomfortable with a U.S. military presence in Iraq and
Afghanistan, it does not view a U.S. strike on Iranian
territory as likely, and it dismisses the chances of success
should any strike target Iran's dispersed nuclear facilities.
Rather, he said, Iran fears that further economic sanctions
could produce a popular backlash large enough to topple the
regime.


6. (C) Noting Iran's involvement in Iraq, Al-Thufiri said
that Iran's policies in Iraq had counterbalanced those of
Syria, on which he said Iran had applied (unspecified)
pressure to patrol its borders with Iraq more effectively.

Iran's Pre-War Assessment of U.S. Troop Strength Off
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Regarding the Kuwaiti-Iranian bilateral relationship,
Al-Thufiri said he had advised Kuwaiti Prime Minister Shaykh
Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah to be frank in his dealings with Iran
in order to win the country's respect. Revealing details of
a January 10, 2003 meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister
Kamal Kharazzi and PM Shaykh Sabah, he said that the Iranian
FM had told PM Sabah that Iran estimated that U.S. forces in
Kuwait numbered 40,000 at that time and asked if this was
correct. PM Sabah had responded bluntly that the number was
100,000 too low and added that there were plans for another
40,000 British troops.

Kuwaiti Concern Over Possible Iranian Nukes
--------------


8. (C) Al-Thufiri said that Kuwait is "very, very concerned"
about the possibility that Iran might develop nuclear
weapons, as it could potentially set off a nuclear arms race
in the region, eventually culminating in a nuclear armed Iraq
that could someday again threaten Kuwaiti sovereignty.

Biographical Note
--------------


9. (C) Al-Thufiri is a Sunni who has served as Kuwait's
Ambassador to Iran since 2001. Although he does not speak
Farsi, he is known to be close to high-level leaders in Iran,
and post has no reason to doubt his claims that he frequently
sits with former President and presidential candidate Ali
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Al-Thufiri appears to be in his
mid-forties and speaks English fluently.

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LEBARON