SHIITE POLITICAL SCIENTIST: IRAN NOT TRYING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000213

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARPI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2015
TAGS: PREL KU IR IZ
SUBJECT: SHIITE POLITICAL SCIENTIST: IRAN NOT TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ISLAMIC REPUBLIC IN IRAQ

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Liberal Shiite and Kuwait University
Political Science Chairman Professor Abdull Redha Assiri
shared his thoughts on Iran with Poloffs during a January 11
meeting. Assiri, who travels often to Iran, said Kuwait and
Iran maintain good relations and predicted that Iran --
already active in the region -- would become the "balancer"
should there be any future conflict between Kuwait and Iraq.
On Iraq, Assiri said both Iran and the Iraqi Shiite community
recognize the "impossibility" of establishing an Islamic
Republic there. End Summary.

Kuwaiti-Iranian Relations Good
--------------


2. (C) Kuwait University Political Science Chairman Professor
Abdull Redha Assiri told Poloffs January 11 that the state of
Kuwaiti-Iranian relations is generally good, and that Kuwait
and Egypt share the best reputations amongst Arab countries
in Iran. Although Kuwaitis and Iranians do a brisk trade in
many legitimate goods, he said, Iran is known in Kuwait as a
transshipment point for smuggled goods and drugs.

Iranian Regional Policy
--------------


3. (C) Assiri said Iranians are generally businesslike and
rhetoric notwithstanding, approach their regional policy in
the same manner. He noted that Iran had been "positively
neutral" during the liberation of Kuwait, turning a blind eye
to U.S. violations of their airspace while at the same time
accepting fleeing Iraqi aircraft. He asserted that in the
event that Kuwait and Iraq have some sort of future conflict,
Iran would act as a "balancer," just as it had during the
Iraqi occupation, when it threatened to take Failaka Island
if Arab states did nothing to restore Kuwaiti sovereignty.

Iranian Involvement in Iraq
--------------


4. (C) Turning to Iranian involvement in Iraq, Assiri said
Iran recognizes, as does the Iraqi Shi'a population, that
conditions in Iraq will not allow for the implementation of
an Islamic Republic; accordingly, Iran is not engaged in
trying to establish one there. Rather, Assiri said that Iran
is involved in Iraq only insofar as it views itself as the
"guardians of Islam" and a neighbor. (Note: This contradicts
what Sunni GOK officials have told Emboffs. End Note.)


Internal Policy: A Multi-Headed Dragon Dogged by Poverty
-------------- --------------


5. (C) On Iranian internal politics, Assiri said that
nationalism and religion were the two major political
currents driving events inside the country. Although he
described the current environment as one in which "politics
is made in Qom and exported to Tehran" and every small town
contains an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force (IRGC) element,
he said that major changes were afoot which would steadily
decrease the influence of hardline clerics in the country.
Chief among these, he said, was the poor state of the economy.


6. (C) Assiri said the average Iranian leaves their home for
work at 6 AM and doesn't return until midnight, six days a
week. During this period, he said, they go to a main job
which pays a monthly salary of 80,000 to 100,000 Toman (USD
90-120),then leave this job to go to as many as three more,
where the combined monthly salary is another 80,000 to
100,000 Toman. In a country where the collective resource
wealth should be the foundation of a strong economy, this
hard life, he said, is taking its toll on a population whose
majority has no recollection of the Revolution. Assiri
predicted that poor economic conditions in Iran would
eventually lead to the downfall of the current hardline
regime; for now, they are instrumental in the decreasing
influence of the thoughts of Ayatollah Khomeini.


7. (C) Assiri took the opportuntiy to suggest that the U.S.
unfreeze assets to reach out to Iranian moderates.


8. (C) Comment: Assiri is a well-regarded strategic thinker
and visits Iran often enough to be able to provide reliable
commentary on Iranian policy. As with most of post's Shiite
contacts, and despite having no love for the Iranian regime,
Assiri downplays the influence of Iranian state actors in
Iraq. His assertion that Iran cannot successfully export the
concept of velayat e faqih to Iraq is accurate; his belief
that they are not trying to may be naive.

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LEBARON