KABILA LAUNCHES TRANSITION ASSESSMENT SEMINAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000964

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO CG
SUBJECT: KABILA LAUNCHES TRANSITION ASSESSMENT SEMINAR

Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece. Reason 1.4 (b/d).


1. (U) President Kabila presided over the ceremonial
opening June 10 of a Transition evaluation and assessment
seminar. The Ambassador and other chiefs of mission of
members countries of the International Committee to Accompany
the Transition (CIAT) were also invited to attend, as were
selected other senior international community representatives
and senior GDRC executive and legislative branch officials.
The opening was covered by the local press, although the
substantive discussions will be closed. The seminar itself
will involve government ministers and other senior officials.


2. (C) The idea of a general Transition assessment was
included in President Kabila,s May 16 national speech, which
was generally viewed as the President,s endorsement and
kick-off to official parliamentary debate over a needed
extension to the DRC,s two-year old transition. The purpose
of the exercise is not entirely clear. One plausible idea is
that Kabila is seeking to use the seminar as a means to
oblige all of the various parties participating in the
Transitional Government to express their criticisms and
suggestions in a coherent manner, rather than express views
separately in public, and politically-driven, remarks that
could contribute to further political divisiveness during a
politically-tense period. In other words, Kabila is using
the seminar to fence in his transition government partners.


3. (C) During a wide-ranging discussion June 11 in a private
meeting with the Ambassador (septel),Vice President Ruberwa
commented that Kabila also seems to be seeking to use the
seminar to lay the groundwork for what Ruberwa characterized
as significant changes in the government. Potentially, he
said, this might include an effort by Kabila to replace Vice
President Yerodia, as well as several cabinet ministers.
Ruberwa commented that Kabila,s apparent desire for all of
the parties participating in the government to undertake
similar shake-ups posed a problem for his party, RCD-Goma.
Having completed several cabinet changes of RCD-Goma
ministers a few months ago, and just winding up an apparently
often-contentious party conference to review whether RCD-Goma
officials should be maintained in their party functions,
Ruberwa has no desire to undertake further changes among
RCD-Goma ministers.


4. (U) The seminar is expected to be completed on Tuesday,
June 14 or Wednesday, June 15. Whatever changes are expected
in government operations or personnel would presumably be
clear soon thereafter.


5. (C) Comment: Making changes among key PPRD ministers or
other officials within a context of a broader government-wide
shakeup would simplify things a bit politically for Kabila.
Such an approach would be consistent with Kabila,s mode of
operating and sounds entirely plausible. Presumably, in
addition to laying the groundwork for personnel changes, and
keeping his transition partners somewhat coordinated, Kabila
views the seminar as a part of the overall government effort
to address popular concerns in advance of the sensitive June
30 anniversary date. In that regard, we are more skeptical
that the seminar will achieve significant results. As far as
specifics, there are widespread rumors that the Minister of
Finance is particularly vulnerable. Kinshasa, however, is
always full of often-specific rumors, and most are untrue.
If significant personnel changes are coming, they will
probably be sooner rather than later, i.e. before June 30.
End comment.
MEECE