FDLR REPATRIATION UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000800

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO CG
SUBJECT: FDLR REPATRIATION UPDATE

REF: A. KINSHASA 764

B. KINSHASA 465

Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.4 B and D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. FDLR President Dr. Ignace Murwanashyaka,
MONUC DDRRR Chief, and Congolese officials went to the Kivus
May 11 to try to persuade FDLR members and their families to
return to Rwanda. Most Kinshasa-based international
observers, however, are not optimistic about the FDLR
President's chances of succeeding. END SUMMARY.

Murwanashyaka's Prospects
--------------


2. (SBU) On May 11, FDLR President Dr. Ignace Murwanashyaka,
MONUC DDRRR Chief Peter Swarbrick, and three mid-level
Congolese officials went to the Kivus to try to convince FDLR
members and their families to return to Rwanda. Murwanashyaka
is currently in Walungu and Hombo with advisors to National
Security Advisor Samba Kaputo. MONUC DDRRR Chief, however,
was not invited to accompany and stayed in Bukavu.


3. (C) While in Kinshasa, Murwanashyaka met with some members
of the diplomatic community (Note: but not with the U.S.).
All those we spoke with said they question whether
Murwanashyaka has the authority (over troops) or the
political will to deliver FDLR repatriation. The Swedes and
the Canadians, for example, expressed their lack of
confidence in Murwanashyaka's ability to deliver. They noted
that Murwanashyaka was still calling for "political space"
for the FDLR, a formal "comite de suivi" to be created by the
international community, and even an end to the gacaca
trials. When told by the Canadian Charge that the FDLR had
two choices--return to Rwanda or face military action by
MONUC, Murwanashyaka laughed and said, "let them try."

Nyamwisi's Unlikely Alternative
--------------

4.(C) Minister of Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi told
poloff May 12 that there were two main reasons why the FDLR
had not started large-scale repatriation--Murwanashyaka was
not the right man for the job, and advisors close to the
President lacked the political will to make the FDLR leave.
Nyamwisi said that Murwanashyaka (a political choice without
ties to the genocide) did not have much credibility with
field-based units, and was personally opposed to the FDLR's
unconditional return during December 2004 negotiations.
Nyamwisi also claimed that advisors close to the President
were actively preventing Nyamwisi's participation in the
process. He asserted that if he were allowed to participate
he could get at least 200 FDLR members near Lubero to
repatriate immediately.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Many diplomatic and MONUC observers note that there
increasingly are two obstacles to realizing voluntary
return--Murwanashyaka's incapacity/insincerity, and Rwanda's
discouraging statements. On the latter, many wonder if the
U.S., possibly through the Tripartite mechanism, could not do
more to encourage Rwanda. Nyamwisi's intent May 12 was
clearly to re-pitch his March message to the Ambassador
(reftel B)--i.e., he is the best hope for repatriating the
FDLR from North Kivu--an unlikely possibility at best. We
think, along with MONUC and others, and based on extensive
prior experience with him, that he would be even less likely
to deliver them than Murwanashyaka.
DOUGHERTY