IMPORTANT NEW POLITICAL COALITION BEING LAUNCHED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001893

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG
SUBJECT: IMPORTANT NEW POLITICAL COALITION BEING LAUNCHED

Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: Three veteran political figures, National
Assembly President Kamitatu, and former ministers Endundo and
Pay Pay, have formed a new political coalition that will back
Pay Pay,s candidacy for President in next year,s election.
News of the candidacy will be broached next week through the
newspaper "Le Soft", and about two weeks later, Kamitatu,
Endundo, and likely others will make their support publicly
known. The three represent three geographic areas, Equateur,
Bandundu, and the Kivus, and they told the Ambassador various
deals have already been reportedly struck with others,
including Vice President Ruberwa. This coalition highlights
the big existing divisions within the MLC, and could pose a
significant threat to President Kabila,s poorly-organized
PPRD in the elections. Success may ride on the group,s
ability to assemble the national organization needed for
success in parliamentary and presidential elections. The new
initiative represents the first significant new political
group in the evolving DRC political landscape as the country
moves toward elections. End summary.


2. (C) Former minister Jose Endundo invited the Ambassador to
lunch on November 10 at his residence, along with MLC party
Secretary General and National Assembly President Olivier

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Kamitatu, and former Mobutu-era Finance Minister Pierre Pay
Pay. After some initial general discussion, Endundo informed
the Ambassador that the three had formed a political
coalition. News would be surfaced next week of Pierre Pay
Pay,s candidacy for the DRC presidency in next year,s
election. About two weeks later, Kamitatu, Endundo and
others would publicly signal their support. The coalition,s
intent would be to see Pay Pay,s election to the Presidency,
and the election of a de facto parliamentary majority
sufficient to ensure Kamitatu,s selection as Prime Minister
under the new Constitution. Endundo has assumed the role of
coalition chair, devoting full time to campaign and other
political activities. (Comment: A parliamentary commission
headed by Kamitatu friend Christophe Lutundula may well be
issuing a long-awaited report within the next two weeks that
could identify key Kabila supporters as guilty of corrupt or
illegal behavior. The timing of the report's release and the
new coalition,s announcement is hardly likely to be
coincidental. End comment).


3. (C) In subsequent discussion and in response to the
Ambassador,s questions, the three indicated that the Pay Pay
candidacy would be made public through the newspaper "Le
Soft", a periodical published in Europe and controlled by
one-time Mobutist Information Minister Kin Kiey Mulumba, who
later became a member of the RCD, and even later took a more
independent stance. Endundo and Kamitatu reported that they
have obtained the de facto support of Vice President Ruberwa.
Ruberwa, as RCD-Goma President, will be obliged to run
himself for President, but with no expectation of victory.
He will, however, reportedly in fact support the coalition,s
activities and will be provided a meaningful role in the
post-election government, according to the group,s scenario.
The three also ran through a list of other allies and
supporters already signed on, including prominent political
figures in a number of geographic regions. Endundu reported
that there are already committees at work to define
explicitly the group,s political, economic, and social
programs - in essence, the coalition,s political platform.


4. (C) The three indicated they are not forming a new
political party per se. Apparently they seek to utilize a
variety of existing political parties, many quite small, and
draw from the ranks of the more major parties. The
Ambassador asked Kamitatu, for example, if he plans to run in
the election as an MLC candidate. While somewhat vague in
his response, he offered that as a possibility, although he
added, "obviously not as MLC Secretary-General."


5. (C) The group clearly views Kabila as their primary rival.
All three explained that the presidential candidates likely
to emerge with the highest vote totals in a first round would
be Kabila, Tshisekedi (if he runs, which appears unlikely),
and they believe Pay Pay with sufficient campaign preparation
before June. They estimate that all others, including Vice
Presidents Bemba and Ruberwa, as likely to garner well less
than 10 percent each. They also estimate that Kabila has
major organizational challenges and serious opposition,
including in his home province of Katanga, a problem for his
own candidacy and even more so in terms of getting supportive
parliamentarians elected. Interestingly, all three reported
that Kabila had personally been in contact with them in
recent weeks with feelers seeking to enlist them in his own
political plans.


6. (C) The three said that they are also informing the
British, French, and Belgian Ambassadors in advance of the
announcement. They do not seek backing from any foreign
government. Endundo did indicate that they have been setting
up a trip for Pay Pay and possibly others to travel to
Kampala and possibly Kigali as early as next week to inform
the Ugandan and Rwandan governments of the coalition and
their plans.


7. (C) Comment: This is a significant new political
development. The three figures and their reported allies
already reflect a broader geographic base than any of the
standing parties can claim. There is substantial political
expertise in the group, and deep knowledge of the DRC and its
complex political currents. Putting up Pay Pay as a
Presidential candidate has potential value as a somewhat
older experienced figure, but one without the baggage of
involvement in the Transition 1 4 government. The three also
command substantial wealth among them, and presumably can tap
even greater financial resources from other allies. The
reported Ruberwa understanding with the group is entirely
plausible, although it does not exclude the possibility that
Ruberwa has reached a similar understanding with the Kabila
camp.


8. (C) Comment (cont): How Jean-Pierre Bemba will react to
this coalition is an open question, and a potential problem.
It has long been widely known that Kamitatu and Bemba have
been at odds, but Kamitatu,s open defection could and
probably will bring other MLC figures with him out of
Bemba,s column. Bemba may have relatively few political
friends and options available to him at this point. Also a
key question, of course, is how Kabila and his political
inner circle will react. Kabila,s PPRD party hardly exists
as an organized entity, and Kabila thus far has done little
to address his political weaknesses. It is a fair guess that
this new coalition will provoke substantial alarm at the
Presidency. Another question is whether Pay Pay can be
successfully promoted as a national figure with sufficient
appeal to draw sufficient votes to be one of the top two
Presidential candidates. While a prominent past figure, Pay
Pay has kept himself largely in the background during much of
the Transition period. Kamitatu has clearly decided that the
time is too early for him to make a run at the Presidency
himself. He has been carefully establishing a strong base of
support among current members of the Parliament, and his
ambition to emerge as Prime Minister out of a working
parliamentary majority is realistic. Perhaps he is biding
his time to position himself as a potential successor to a
future President Pay Pay. Or more Machievellian, he may be
calculating that even if Pay Pay does not win, the new
coalition could still put Kamitatu in a very strong position
as presumptive Prime Minister and future Presidential
candidate. Up to now, conventional wisdom has been that
Kabila is the likely winner of Presidential elections, in
part by default given the weakness of the likely opponents.
The new coalition potentially starts changing that picture.
More developments are likely arising out of the intense
political activity now taking place in Kinshasa. This one is
well worth watching, and is likely an indicator of what will
be a very interesting political season. It is also
encouraging evidence of ever more members of the political
class starting to think and plan in terms of electoral
politics. End comment.

DOUGHERTY