CONGO-B: AN ASSESSMENT OF POLITICAL STYLE AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001345

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF, AF/C, AND AF/RSA
AF FOR AS FRAZER
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

FROM BRAZZAVILLE EMBASSY OFFICE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PHUM ASEC ETRD EINV CF
SUBJECT: CONGO-B: AN ASSESSMENT OF POLITICAL STYLE AND
VISION

REF: KINSHASA 001329


1. (U) This is an action request. See paragraph 10.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: A product of years of strife, struggle,
and coalition building to gain and retain power, Congolese
President Denis Sassou-Nguesso has emerged as the
uncontested and unquestioned leader of government, chairman
of the corporate board, and visionary of a better future for
the people of Congo. He has amassed considerable wealth, co-
opted or neutralized his political opponents, and appears to
be concerned about his international image and his
historical legacy. In order to achieve his objectives for
the future, and while maintaining strict control of the ship
of state, he has shown a willingness to seek and accept the
advice and assistance of the international community to
develop critical sectors of the economy and to increase
openness and transparency in government. The Executive
Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved an
$84.4 million Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF)
for the Republic of Congo on December 6, 2004, and the Paris
Club has agreed to reschedule its foreign debt. The French
oil company TotalFinaElf and the Government of France
continue strong ties with Congo, and China is moving to
establish its presence in Congo as well as elsewhere in
Africa. As a gesture to encourage President Sassou to
continue on a path of sustained economic growth, poverty
reduction, transparency and good governance, and to improve
the observance of human rights in Congo, CDA recommends that
AS Frazer meet with President Sassou during his planned
visit to New York city for the meeting of the UN General
Assembly in September 2005. END SUMMARY.


THE VISION STATEMENT


3. (U) In his State of the Nation address delivered before
a joint session of parliament on August 8, 2005, President
Sassou outlined his vision of a strategy to strengthen
democratic institutions, to accelerate economic growth and
development, to reduce poverty, and to cooperate with
international financial institutions to sustain the social,
financial, and economic programs of his government.
Emphasizing the importance of peace and security in building
democratic institutions, he accepted the challenge to build
a peaceful democracy that would be unceasingly improved and
reinforced. He announced a plan to build democracy at the
local level through decentralization and delegation of
authority. He appealed to the private sector and financial
institutions to join hands with his government to create
enterprises and to fight unemployment. He warned corrupt
civil servants that they could undermine the nation's
economic and social foundation and said they would be rooted
out. The aim of his government, he said, is to develop and
transfer skills in the fields of public education, health,
social affairs, civilian protection, transportation and
public works, commerce, tourism and the crafts industry.


4. (U) The President said his major preoccupation is
putting an end to the multiple problems of public access to
water and electricity, and cited several building projects
that will expand the electric and water supply. These
include the water projects at Nkombo, Sibiti, and Mossaka,
the thermal power station in Mpila and the hydro-electric
complex at Imboulou. He announced that the government has
adopted a National Plan for Regional Development that will
soon be submitted to the Parliament for approval. The plan
will outline a strategy to advance the harmonious
development of the country to achieve its full potential, he
said. A major portion of the speech was devoted to a
detailed status report on the arrangement with the IMF for
the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and the
Paris Club debt rescheduling. Giving specific figures on
the amounts of debt involved, he concluded that Congo had
just benefited from foreign debt cancellation and
rescheduling measures in relation to three bilateral
partners: France, the United States, and Italy. With the
entire diplomatic corps and heads of international
organizations assembled in the Hall of Congress (Palais du
Parlement),President Sassou seized the opportunity to
express recognition and thanks to the countries,
international financial institutions, as well as other
partners who brought their help and support to Congo's work
of reconstruction and development. As you can see, he said,
our efforts were not in vain.

THE REALITY


5. (U) There are indications that President Sassou is
committed to meeting the IMGF targets as set forth under the
PRGF arrangements as well as the Paris Club criteria for
debt relief. The chiefs of all diplomatic missions and
international organizations in Brazzaville have formed an
advisory group called Partners for Poverty Reduction in
Congo. The Group meets periodically, usually monthly, with
the Minister of Plans (or his representative) to assess
approaches and progress and to offer technical advice and
assistance to the government on how to meet IMF targets and
reduce poverty. The group is chaired by the World Bank
Resident Representative and includes representatives from
donor agencies such as UNDP, IMF, AU, ICRC, UNHCR, and
UNICEF. The group has emphasized the need for a
comprehensive development plan that identifies actions that
each ministry must implement, not just the Ministry of
Plans. Time tables, follow-up and oversight functions have
been emphasized. A smaller oversight committee has been
formed within the larger group consisting of the World Bank,
IMF, UNDP and AU representatives and the Ambassadors of
France and the United States. When it appears that advice
is not being well received or that programs are lagging off
schedule, this watch-dog committee will request an audience
with the President to advise him personally of corrective
measures required to stay on course. President Sassou has
welcomed this international intervention and assistance.


6. (U) In the area of economic development, China has
assumed a leading role. The China Machinery Equipment
Corporation (CMEC) entered into a contract with the
Congolese Government on March 25, 2003, to construct a dam
on the Lefini River at Imboulou located about 125 miles
north of Brazzaville. Construction started in April of this
year and is expected to be completed in 2009 at a cost of
some $250 million. Most of the material for the project
will be imported from China. About 500 workers are
currently employed by the project: 115 Chinese technicians
and 385 Congolese. This appears to be China's largest
project in Congo. Another Chinese company called WIETC has
a joint venture agreement with a construction company called
SOPROGI to build housing projects. In the first phase of
construction, 103 houses will be built in Oyo, a city
located 187 miles north of Brazzaville. This project is
employing 70 Congolese workers and 12 Chinese engineers. On
July 15, 2005, this company also began construction of low-
income housing in Bacongo, a district of Brazzaville heavily
populated by supporters of Pastor Ntumi, the leader of the
Ninja rebels. Housing is a major social issue for low-
income Congolese, and completion of this project will be
highly valued by all Congolese, including Pastor Ntumi.
This brief summary is not comprehensive; it is intended only
to give a sense of significant economic development
projects. There are others ongoing.


7. (SBU) In the area of human rights, there is a need for
improvement. The Pygmies are still discriminated against in
all aspects of society, and about 30 persons arrested in
Pointe Noire in the spring of this year suspected of coup
plotting are being held without trial. Efforts to implement
the March 2003 Peace Agreement between the Government of
Congo and the Ninja rebels continue. President Sassou has
announced that legislative elections will be held in the
Pool Region, probably in the winter. Chief Frederic
Bitsango, alias Pastor Ntumi, has clearly expressed his
intention to be a part of the political process and to seek
election from the Pool. This poses a political challenge
for the President since the incumbent Member of Parliament
from the same District in the Pool Region is a close friend
and political ally. In another District of the Pool Region
the Minister of Commerce, Mrs. Adelaide Moundele-Ngollo, has
indicated her intention to seek election. She is considered
the front-runner in her district because of the popularity
and reputation of her father who is highly revered in the
region. Experienced observers believe that a way will be
found to bring Pastor Ntumi into the government. An example
of Ntumi's dialogue with the government may have already
been shown.


8. (SBU) In April 2005, a convoy of 8 UN vehicles was
attacked by armed Ninja rebels, robbed, and later released
unharmed by Pastor Ntumi. The purpose of the UN Mission to
the Pool was to assess conditions there. The convoy
consisted of some 25 persons, including chiefs of UN
Missions in the Congo, and journalists. One of the young
boys, armed with a loaded gun, told the UNICEF Program
Coordinator "we are not bad people, we are just hungry."
The rebels knew the convoy was coming and were waiting for
them at a selected spot along the route. The fact that no
one was harmed and that Pastor Ntumi personally rescued the
mission and led them to safety gave rise to speculation that
the entire incident was staged to make a political point.

THE BEACH TRIAL VERDICT


9. (SBU) The not guilty verdict announced by the
Brazzaville Criminal Court last Wednesday (see reftel)
clearing the senior military and police officials accused of
crimes in the disappearance of some 350 refugees from the
beach in 1999 did not surprise most observers. Those
accused of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes
were leaders of President Denis Sassou-Nguesso's support
base within the military and police, including the Chief of
Police. A guilty verdict against them would have been
viewed as a betrayal of trust within the ranks and could
have led to more serious disruptions and intrigue. The
victor in a civil war that pitted north against south, tribe
against tribe, and brother against brother, the President
owes political favors to numerous individuals and groups for
helping him win that war. These Sassou loyalists now hold
key positions in government at all levels (including the
judiciary),in international institutions, and in the
private sector. His loyalty to them and their loyalty to
him is the base of his power. Thus, the trial was held in
response to demands from grieving families, human rights
groups, and the international community for justice and
transparency. The verdict, interestingly, found the
government responsible for not adequately providing security
for the refugees and ordered it to pay 10 million CFA
($18,500) in compensation to the relatives of 86 of the
missing refugees. None of the officials charged were found
individually culpable for the disappearances.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: After 45 years of political
instability, ideological shifts, and civil war, the Republic
of Congo remains in an early stage of economic and political
development. The resulting contradictions and distortions
are strikingly obvious. The audacious accumulation of
wealth in the hands of the President and his family in the
face of widespread poverty and disease among the population,
the huge amount of food imported into the country (estimated
to be valued at 100 billion CFA, or 20 USD million per
month) despite hunger, high unemployment and a low minimum
wage, and the high level of government spending on champagne
at official parties verses no books and benches for school
children cannot be explained nor excused by the uneven
impact of history. Strong political leadership and vision
are required to reverse these trends. President Sassou says
that he is now ready to step up to the plate and lead this
nation out of poverty and into an era of economic and
political renewal based on transparency and good governance.
CDA recommends that we seize the opportunity of his planned
visit to New York for the UNGA to encourage him to do just
that and to improve the observance of human rights in Congo.
CDA believes the Assistant Secretary of State for African
Affairs is the appropriate level for this demarche' given
the relatively early stage of many of these development
programs, and CDA strongly recommends that AS Frazer
undertake this initiative.


11. (U) Brazzaville Embassy Office - Anderson
Meece