30 JUNE: PPRD CONFIDENT IN POLICE, LESS SO IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001056

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2015
TAGS: PGOV MARR KPKO CG
SUBJECT: 30 JUNE: PPRD CONFIDENT IN POLICE, LESS SO IN
MILITARY

Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) National Security Advisor Samba Kaputo told PolCouns
June 27 that the government (i.e., the president's party, the
PPRD) is confident that the police (controlled by the PPRD
Minister of Interior) will support the government June 30,
but that there are some doubts that all the military will be
as dependable. Kaputo said that they estimate they have about
5,000 "solid" military, including Angolan-trained special
forces, the Angolan-trained troops recently graduated from
Kitona, and some regular army elements. These reliable
elements will be pre-positioned around the city June 29 with
instructions to break up attempts by more than about 25
people to assemble, since the government's concern is that,
if a large group (several thousand) come together, the police
and secure military might not be able to contain them. The
thrust of the government's policy is containment -- keeping
problematic elements from coming together, and isolating
trouble in certain parts of the city while "sealing off"
areas such as Gombe where government offices, diplomatic
missions and MONUC compounds are located. In a related
effort, the government could preemptively arrest known
troublemakers beginning the evening of June 29, hoping to
head-off efforts to incite violence.


2. (C) Minister of Defense Onasumba (from the RCD party)
told PolCouns June 28 that he is confident in the support of
the military. With the exception of a few units already well
identified, he said that salary payments (which began June
28) and unspecified "other incentives" will help ensure that
the military fully supports the police, who have the lead on
maintaining security in all DRC cities June 30.


3. (C) Onasumba, Vice President Ruberwa and other officials
also described June 30 security plans, albeit in less detail,
to members of the Security Sector Joint Commission in a June
28 meeting. In that meeting, the Vice Minister of the
Interior confirmed that all police units have been paid,
while Onasumba reported that military salary payments are
underway and will be completed by the 30th.


4. (C) Comment: The central theme of the government's
security plan for responding to the UDPS threats of violence
on June 30 has always been avoidance/containment. For the
last month several ministers and opinion leaders have been
working in the most problematic parts of the city to
counteract the UDPS messages, both by force of moral suasion
as well as liberal distribution of cash. The Minister of
Interior, for instance, was charged with working with
musicians and well-known local athletes to develop
community-based leadership networks that would urge people to
stay home and stay calm on the 30th. Recognizing that such
efforts alone, however, may not avert violence, particularly
given the oft-expressed determination of the UDPS to incite
demonstrations, the government is putting in place measures
to contain and/or respond to potential situations in a
measured and reasonable way -- which, given the history here,
will be a challenge in and of itself. It is also worth
keeping in mind that Kaputo, a hardline PPRD member, has a
confirmed distrust of any non-PPRD controlled military units,
and this bias probably underlies his pessimistic evaluation
of the number of "loyal" military troops, particularly given
the confident assessments of Onasumba and Ruberwa, both from
the RCD-G.
MEECE