KINSHASA TENSE AS JUNE 30 APPROACHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001042

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV ASEC CG
SUBJECT: KINSHASA TENSE AS JUNE 30 APPROACHES


Classified By: DCM TDougherty for reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (SBU) Summary: Though tensions are rising in Kinshasa and
elsewhere in the country in anticipation of June 30, the
security situation remains generally calm. Some opposition
leaders, most particularly UDPS leader Etienne Tshisekedi,
continue to call for the end of the transitional government
on June 30, but there has been no noticeable groundswell of
popular support. That said, the rumor mill is on full
throttle, police presence has markedly increased, and
residents are keeping a close eye on developments. End
summary.

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Rumor Mill Working Overtime
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2. (SBU) The past month has been marked by constant rumors,
all of which have turned out to be unsubstantiated. There
have been reports of shipments of machetes being delivered
from Brazzaville and elsewhere, of several thousands of
Angolans (and/or other foreign) soldiers on the streets, of
collusion by foreign governments, and of an impending
declaration of martial law. Beginning more than a week ago,
rumors of curfews were widely circulated to the point where
on June 15 the Governor of Kinshasa had to have a message
broadcast on television and radio which in essence said:
"Yes, we have no curfew."


3. (C) Expatriates have helped fan rumors. Great importance
was attributed to the difficulty in getting airline
reservations to Europe during the second half of June; while
true, the end of the school year always results in families
heading to Europe and elsewhere for summer vacations, though
this year's exodus is clearly larger than normal. Numerous
international and multinational companies began advising
their Kinshasa offices as early as May to have family members
and non-essential personnel out of the country by mid-June.
At least one U.N. agency in Kinshasa ominously advised its
employees to stockpile food, stay off the streets, and
prepare to evacuate. All of this contributed to what both
Congolese and international residents refer to as the "June
30 psychosis."


4. (C) There is justified fear that significant violence
could erupt elsewhere, particularly in the UDPS stronghold of
the Kasais. Recent violence in Mbuji Mayi, for example, is
seen by many as a harbinger of worse things to come. Though
geographically distant from Kinshasa, televised images of
fighting from Mbuji Mayi or Kanaga, for example, could easily
incite UDPS supporters in the capital to take to the streets.
Events in the Kasais, however, do not automatically carry
the same political consequences as those in Kinshasa.

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Increased Police and Military Presence
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5. (SBU) Police units have been deployed throughout the city,
especially during the night, and their presence has been
noted by Kinshasa residents. Likewise, there has been a
proliferation of military checkpoints. There has been a
decrease in activity on the streets at night due to the
police and military presence (and shakedowns of citizens by
soldiers),increased crime in the city over the past months,
and the end of the school year.


6. (C) The Minister of Interior advised political counselor
that units were being deployed throughout Kinshasa with the
express purpose of ensuring that groups of ten or more not
being allowed to congregate. He added that foreigners were
not being targeted, but implied that it would be a good idea
to stay close to home.


7. (C) The presence of the police is potentially a mixed
blessing. While they can play a constructive role in
maintaining order, if they are not paid in the coming days
they could be a destabilizing force. Senior government
officials have told us that police will be paid, with June 25
being the date most frequently mentioned. If adequate
payments are not made, however, the situation could become
explosive.


8. (C) Reports are re-surfacing that the military intends to
have a major "show of force" before June 30. This would
involve troops marching in formation in Kinshasa, with the
possibility of boats on the Congo River and helicopters also
being deployed. We, along with other Western missions, have
told ministers and other senior officials that such a plan is
ill-advised. The possibility of an incident rapidly spinning
out of control is very real, particularly since the Congolese
military has a dismal track record regarding crowd control.

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Some Encouraging Signs
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9. (SBU) Parliament approved the extension of the transition
on June 17 (without any resulting violent reactions),an
electoral calendar has been promulgated, and voter
registration began successfully in Kinshasa on June 20.
These developments have been widely publicized, and seem to
be generally well understood by residents of the capital. In
Catholic and Protestant churches on June 19, priests and
ministers advised their congregations to stay peaceful. A
statement from the Catholic Bishops' Conference on June 22,
while containing some mixed messages, called on the Congolese
to reject violence. ROC President Sassou flew from
Brazzaville to Kinshasa today, and we understand he is
seeking to speak with Tshisekedi as part of his program.
Significantly, markets and stores are operating normally and
people are going about their daily business as usual.

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Comment
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10. (C) If police and soldiers are paid this weekend, the
"June 30 psychosis" may anti-climatically turn out to be the
Congolese equivalent of the "Year 2000" scare. If they are
not paid, however, trouble can be expected. One way or the
other, there are spoilers who have every intention of
creating mayhem centered on June 30. Barring a breakdown in
military and police discipline, and barring incidents that
spin quickly out of control, the chances of neutralizing such
spoilers are reasonably good. End comment.
MEECE