LEADING POLLSTER ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 002697

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCRM JM
SUBJECT: LEADING POLLSTER ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Thomas C. Tighe. Reasons 1.4(b)
and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On December 9th, respected veteran pollster Don
Anderson (protect) discussed electoral issues with
Pol/EconCouns and Poloff. Anderson described Peoples
National Party (PNP) Member of Parliament and government
minister Portia Simpson Miller as a strong contender to
become the next leader of the PNP. Contrasting her strong
popular support with vigorous opposition to her advancement
by elements of her own party, Anderson considered it likely
that Simpson Miller would retire from politics if she felt
she was "shafted" by her party by not being elected president
of the PNP despite a majority of support from the populous.
Anderson also commented on Jamaica Labor Party/Opposition
Leader Bruce Golding and what seems to be a return to his
relationship with "gunmen" since he resigned from the
National Democratic Movement party and returned to and became
leader of the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP). Anderson opined
that the Prime Minister will most likely call elections after
the Cricket World Cup that is scheduled to take place in
Jamaica and throughout the CARICOM region in March-April

2007. End summary.

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Portia Polls Well
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2. (C) On December 9th, Pol/EconCouns and PolOff met with Don
Anderson (protect),a respected veteran pollster who conducts
surveys for the "Jamaica Gleaner" newspaper, other well-known
Jamaican enterprises, and, he admitted, some politicians.
(Note: Anderson readily acknowledged that Simpson Miller and
her advisors call him frequently for his insights, and that
the Minister had named him to the Jamaican Olympic
Association. He maintained, however, that he keeps a
professional and personal distance from all politicians,
observing that, "I hope to go to my grave owing none of them
any favors." End note.)


3. (C) Anderson discussed Peoples National Party (PNP) Member
of Parliament Portia Simpson Miller and her strong popular
support to become the next leader of the PNP. Asked about
the questions about her class, intellect, and suitability for
the top job often leveled against Simpson Miller by PNP
opponents, Anderson replied that critics often suggested that
her three declared PNP rivals (two of whom hold doctorates
and one of whom is a medical doctor) would refuse to serve in
a PNP government led by Simpson Miller, who, he said, earned
her bachelor's degree by correspondence less than a decade
ago. Simpson Miller is well aware that such criticism is
intended to portray her as unworthy to lead the government,
but that she chooses to bide her time rather than respond
publicly. He cited her decision in Parliament to abstain
from an Opposition-led parliamentary motion against the
government for chronically underfunding the Fire Brigade -
angering fellow PNP MPs who were attempting to kill the
motion as a majority bloc by simply voting it down - had
resulted in a four-to-five percent increase in her national
popularity, portraying her as someone willing to vote on
principle in the national interest rather than strictly along
party lines.


4. (C) According to Anderson, his polling indicates that
Simpson Miller clearly has a majority of popular support to
become the next president of the PNP and is significantly
ahead of the competition. However, Anderson does not believe
she has a majority of support of the approximately 4500 PNP
delegates who will vote to determine the next party
president. Anderson predicted that Prime Minister P.J.
Patterson will call the internal election in late January or
early February 2006. Whoever is elected president of the PNP
would be appointed Prime Minister by the Governor General,
and lead the PNP and the Government into the next general
elections which must be held by October 2007. Anderson
offered the view that if Simpson Miller, who is married to
former senior Cable & Wireless executive Errald Miller, is
not elected president of the PNP by the delegates despite her
acknowledged popular support, she may decide to retire from
politics and allow her party to "lie in the bed they made",
e.g., face Jamaica Labor Party's Bruce Golding without her
support or, presumably, that of her numerous die-hard
supporters. In 1992, Simpson Miller contested the party
leadership against Prime Minister Patterson, who defeated her
handily.

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The JLP's Golding: Reformist Urges Meet Ugly Reality?
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5. (C) Anderson was critical of Bruce Golding, who earned
national plaudits in 1995 when he denounced political
corruption and leading politicians' willingness to associate
with criminals, and left the JLP to found the National
Democratic Movement (NDM). Golding returned to the JLP
shortly before the 2002 elections, which the JLP narrowly
lost; Anderson said that many Laborites, increasingly
desperate to return to government they last controlled in
1989, hold Golding responsible for their 2002 defeat. He
specifically faulted Golding for what he described as a
return to his relationship with gunmen since he returned to
the JLP, but noted that Golding's decision to compete for the
West Kingston seat being vacated by longtime JLP leader and
former Prime Minister Edward Seaga, had perhaps made such
unsavory associations inevitable. (Note: Golding's West
Kingston constituency, which he won in early 2005, contains
the notorious enclave of Tivoli Gardens, which Seaga had
created and maintained as his extremely - and if necessary,
violently - loyal base of power. End note.)


6. (C) When Golding left the JLP and started the NDM, said
Anderson, he publicly admitted he had been involved with
gunmen, but pledged he would sever all ties with them.
Anderson opined that Golding was forced to reconnect with the
criminal element in his constituency in order to connect with
an important element of his base, show his toughness, and win
his parliamentary seat. This, Anderson stated, is evidenced
by Golding's adamant support of the Tivoli Gardens community
when joint Jamaica Constabulary Force/Jamaica Defense Force
patrols entered Tivoli Gardens in October in an unsuccessful
attempt to apprehend several suspected gang leader/criminals.

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When Might the Next Electons Occur?
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7. (C) Constitutionally, the next general elections must be
held by October 2007. According to Anderson, the sitting
Prime Minister might call elections as soon as early
September/October 2006 if the new PNP leader is extremely
confident. However, as current polling numbers do not show
the PNP in a strong enough position to be confident of a
victory if the elections were held now, Anderson explained,
he deemed it far more likely that elections will not be
called until after the Cricket World Cup (CWC) which is
scheduled to occur in Jamaica and throughout the Caricom
region in March-April 2007. Any sitting government, Anderson
continued, would understandably wish to reap the (good)
publicity guaranteed by successfully hosting such an
internationally prestigious event - the first CWC ever held
in the cricket-mad West Indies.

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Comment
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8. (C) Anderson is a thoughtful interlocutor with a good
record of "calling it right". He offers his views candidly,
and voluntarily revealed his links to Portia Simpson Miller.
His stated concerns about Golding's associations track with
what we have heard elsewhere, although we should also note
that Simpson Miller's constituency, as well as those of her
PNP rivals and fellow ministers Omar Davies and Peter
Phillips, have their "garrison" elements as well. There will
undoubtedly be many twists in the road between now and
general election day (whenever that is),but it would seem
that the key next event will be Patterson's announcement of
the date for resolving the PNP leadership race. Whoever wins
the PNP contest, and how fully the PNP unites behind him/her,
will go a long way towards determining the PNP's chances of
holding on to power in the next elections.
JOHNSON