Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05KINGSTON24
2005-01-04 14:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION LEADER SEAGA TO STEP DOWN AFTER 43

Tags:  PGOV JM PREL 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000024 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)
NSC FOR SHANNON
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV JM PREL
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER SEAGA TO STEP DOWN AFTER 43
YEARS IN PARLIAMENT


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000024

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)
NSC FOR SHANNON
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV JM PREL
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER SEAGA TO STEP DOWN AFTER 43
YEARS IN PARLIAMENT



1. Summary. Opposition leader Edward Seaga on December 29
announced his retirement from representational politics after
nearly 43 years as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Western
Kingston. Seaga, who had previously stated his intention to
step down as party leader by January 31, 2005, surprised some
party officials with the announcement that he will now depart
earlier, in mid-January, and that he will also leave his role
as MP. Seaga's exit from politics to take up what he
described as a "high ranking academic position at the
University of the West Indies" (UWI) leaves the Jamaica Labor
Party (JLP) without an MP in Western Kingston, and without an
opposition leader for the upcoming session of the House of
Representatives, which will resume on January 11. As the
party scrambles to resolve a somewhat awkward situation,
there is much public speculation as to who will likely
replace Seaga. End Summary.


2. At a meeting of JLP delegates on December 29, opposition
leader and former prime minister Edward Seaga, who has
represented his Western Kingston garrison community as MP
continuously since 1962, announced that he was "obliged to
give up (his) involvement in active politics" to make himself
available for selection to a top position at the University
of the West Indies. The academic appointment, to be
confirmed by the end of January, is reported to be a chair in
the Department of Government at UWI. Seaga had announced in
June 2004 that he would step down as party leader, but it was
widely expected that he would remain as MP for Western
Kingston, a fiercely loyal constituency and JLP stronghold.


3. The annual JLP conference, scheduled for November 2004,
was to be the venue for electing Seaga's successor to the
party leadership. However, the vote was postponed when
leadership contender Pearnel Charles took the party to court,
challenging the constitutionality of the process. The issue
was resolved, and the party conference is now scheduled to
take place on February 19, 2005. On that date, the party
will choose its new leader, who will run for the office of
prime minister in the next general elections, to be held by

2007. Seaga's earlier-than-expected departure, however,
leaves the JLP with two immediate vacancies to be filled.

First, the JLP needs an interim opposition leader when
Parliament resumes on January 11. In addition, Seaga's West
Kingston constituency needs a new parliamentary
representative.


4. Party watchers suggest that Ken Baugh, MP for Western
Central St. Catherine and opposition spokesman on health, is
the likely favorite to serve as opposition spokesman in
parliament until the JLP elects a new leader in February. A
source told Poloff that Baugh is not known to have political
aspirations beyond his current position, and is considered a
safe interim spokesman who will not "rock the boat."


5. Seaga's choice to succeed him as MP for Western Kingston
is reported to be Olivia "Babsy" Grange, currently the MP for
Central St. Catherine. Major news outlets indicated that
Seaga proposed to Grange that she should take over West
Kingston and that Senator Bruce Golding should take over
Grange's current Central St. Catherine constituency.
Golding, the front-runner to succeed Seaga as party leader in
February, represented Central St. Catherine until 1997, but
does not currently hold a parliamentary seat.


6. Contrary to Seaga,s apparent wishes, however, the
Western Kingston constituency committee on January 2
expressed its preference for Kingston Mayor and deputy
chairman of the constituency, Desmond McKenzie, to replace
Seaga as MP. To date, McKenzie has publicly declined the
nomination, preferring to focus on his current role as mayor
of the capital. Seaga has called a meeting on January 3 to
review the applications of all candidates for MP, including
attorney-at-law Tom Tavares-Finson, who has also expressed an
interest in representing Western Kingston in parliament.


7. Comment: JLP general secretary Karl Samuda described this
as &an awkward period for the party.8 With a national
conference postponed first by Hurricane Ivan and then by a
court battle between the two leading contenders for party
leadership, the JLP,s public image has suffered in recent
months. An interim opposition leader in parliament and the
possibility of up to two vacant parliamentary seats threaten
the party,s position even further, particularly in the face
of the impending general election. Also problematic is that
when Seaga resigns from his position as MP for Western
Kingston in mid-January, the position will remain vacant
until the sitting government calls for a by-election in the
region. However, the current government little to gain from
calling by-elections in a JLP stronghold like Western
Kingston. Some observers therefore find it unlikely that the
PNP government will choose to call by-elections in the
immediate future. Even without intentional foot-dragging on
the part of the government, elections will take time and
money to organize, and it could be weeks before a new JLP MP
will be elected to replace Seaga.
TIGHE