Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05KINGSTON1888
2005-08-06 04:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:  

PNP INSIDER COMMENTS ON RACE TO SUCCEED PRIME

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR JM 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 001888 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)
NSC FOR SHANNON
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR JM
SUBJECT: PNP INSIDER COMMENTS ON RACE TO SUCCEED PRIME
MINISTER

REF: KINGSTON 01652

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Mark J. Powell for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 001888

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT)
NSC FOR SHANNON
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR JM
SUBJECT: PNP INSIDER COMMENTS ON RACE TO SUCCEED PRIME
MINISTER

REF: KINGSTON 01652

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Mark J. Powell for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: On July 28, Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff met
with Balfour Denniston, local businessman and member of the
People's National Party's (PNP) National Executive Committee
(NEC),the ruling party's highest decision-making body
outside of its annual conference. Denniston shared his
perspective on the current state of the PNP succession race,
and offered his thoughts Prime Minister PJ Patterson's
announcement that he might not step down before local
government elections in 2006. End Summary.


2. (C) At a two-day session of the People's National Party's
(PNP) National Executive Committee (NEC) held on July 23 and
24, Prime Minister PJ Patterson surprised many observers by
announcing that he would likely remain in office long enough
to lead the party through local government elections in June

2006.
Although the Prime Minister has never stated explicitly when
he plans to demit office, it previously was widely expected
that he would step down around March 2006. On July 28,
Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff met with Balfour Denniston, local
businessman and long-standing member of the NEC, which is the
party's highest decision-making body outside of its annual
convention. Denniston, who attended the NEC, offered his
thoughts on the announcement, which, he asserted, did not
surprise party insiders. He said that Patterson is known to
want to complete a number of initiatives before his departure
in order to secure his legacy. Specifically, Denniston
mentioned Patterson's desire to lead the G-77 in New York in
September as Prime Minister and G-77 Chair. Observers also
suggest that presiding over a victory in the 2006 local
government elections would be something of a vindication for
Patterson, whose record in national elections was tarnished
when the PNP lost in 10 of 12 parishes in 2003.


3. (C) Denniston proffered that Patterson wishes to stay in
office long enough to allow his preferred successor, Finance
Minister Omar Davies, time to consolidate his campaign.

While Davies still lags well behind most other PNP
candidates, polls indicate that the Finance Minister has
recently begun to gain some ground in the race (Ref A). By
staying on in office longer, Patterson hopes that the Davies'
"Campaign for Prosperity" will continue to strengthen, said
Denniston. He added that Davies' support is very strong in
the local business community (an important source of campaign
contributions),and that some international lending
institutions have &all but said8 that they, too, favor
Davies. The Finance Minister's recent movement in the polls,
said Denniston, is eroding some of National Security Minister
Peter Phillips, support, because the two candidates share a
similar support base.


4. (C) Denniston explained that the Prime Minister favors
Davies at least in part because of his (Patterson's)
contentious history with the two current frontrunners,
Phillips and Portia Simpson Miller, Minister of Local
Government, Community Development, and Sports. Simpson
Miller openly defied Patterson and the PNP when, while
serving as acting Prime Minister in late 2004, she abstained
during a vote called by the Jamaica Labor Party (and opposed
by PNP MPs) in Parliament in favor of desperately needed
funding for the fire services. (Though widely popular with
the general public as a "principled position" given the
decrepit state of the fire brigade, her abstention provoked
vehement condemnation from very senior members of the PNP,
who were embarrassed by the crack in their parliamentary
solidarity. Foreign Minister K.D. Knight even shouted an
expletive at Simpson Miller in Parliament, an outburst for
which he subsequently apologized.) Denniston says the party
has distrusted Simpson Miller ever since. Phillips,
Denniston said, is a holdover from the 1989-1992 Michael
Manley administration who could not be marginalized by
Patterson because he controlled the party's invaluable donor
list. Denniston cited as an additional source of
Patterson/Phillips friction the National Security Minister's
more pragmatic views on cooperating with the United States.
Phillips, he said, had once opposed Patterson during a
Cabinet discussion of the war in Iraq, something Denniston
emphasized had not gone down well with Patterson or with some
of the other ministers present.


5. (C) Within the party, Denniston asserted, Phillips
nevertheless commands the support of much of the Cabinet, the
NEC, most PNP Members of Parliament, and the delegates, while
Simpson Miller is extremely popular with the general public.
Denniston said that this distinction makes national polls
unreliable, since public surveys tend to skew in favor of the
popular choice and do not accurately reflect the support of
the delegates who actually call the shots. He added that,
despite Simpson Miller's overwhelming public support, the
party continues to doubt her leadership ability. Because the
PNP prides itself on the level of education and perceived
intellect of its leaders, Denniston said, a Simpson Miller
presidency would be "an aberration." Simpson Miller is
frequently criticized for lacking the intellectual capacity
to govern; she is the only PNP candidate without an advanced
degree. Her response to date has been to state publicly that
she has extensive relevant experience in charge of several
ministerial portfolios, and that she would also rely heavily
on advisors to govern the country. The latter notion has
been met with derision within the party, according to
Denniston. "Why not just let the advisors lead the country?"
he asked. Denniston has said in the past that, were Simpson
Miller to win the party presidency, Davies' skill and
international contacts would make him the de facto leader.


6. (C) Denniston said that Patterson will very likely leave
office at least one year before the next general election,
which must take place by October 2007. By putting a
successor in place by mid-2006, he explained, the PNP will
leave its new leader, who will be the acting Prime Minister,
an entire year in office before the national vote takes
place. Having a candidate so entrenched in the position will
give the incumbent PNP an obvious advantage over Jamaica
Labor Party leader Bruce Golding.


7. (C) Comment: The extremely personable Denniston, a PNP
veteran, claims once to have served as a campaign manager for
Phillips. In a party and society in which an advanced degree
in any subject often means considerably more to one's
prospects for advancement and for commanding respect than
demonstrated competence in any field of endeavor (including
politics),he clearly holds little regard for the prospect of
Simpson Miller as PNP leader and prime minister. Denniston's
analysis generally track with what we have heard from other
contacts about the PNP's internal race to succeed Patterson.
Unlike the JLP, however, which is only just emerging from a
bitter, protracted and very public succession battle to
replace 30-year party leader Edward Seaga, the PNP largely
manages to shield its internal jockeying for leadership from
public view, avoiding messy headlines self-inflicted wounds.
It is early days yet, but with elections due by October 2007,
the ruling party does not seem overly concerned with Golding.
TIGHE