KINGSTON POL/ECON ROUNDUP: APR 22 - MAY 6, 2005

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001197

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) AND WHA/PDA
STATE ALSO FOR INL/LP, EB/TPP, AND EB/IFD
STATE ALSO FOR CA/OCS/ACS/WHA HALDANE
STATE PASS OPIC FOR TABERNAKI
CUSTOMS MIAMI FOR LOWEN AND MAHABIR
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS, FAS, AND LEGATT
STATE PASS USTR FOR A. GASH-DURKIN
DOJ FOR OPDAT/ R LIPMAN
TREASURY FOR L LAMONICA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN ECON EINV JM SNAR KCOR KCRM ELAB
SUBJECT: KINGSTON POL/ECON ROUNDUP: APR 22 - MAY 6, 2005

REF: KINGSTON 01106


1. This week's topics:

-- Police Under Attack from Kingston Gunmen
-- Latest Crime Statistics
-- Prime Minister Rolls Out the Goodies
-- PNP Sources Report Concerns of a Party Divided
-- Mexican President Fox Visits Jamaica
-- Air Jamaica Settles Labor Dispute

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Police Under Attack from Kingston Gunmen
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2. On the evening of May 3 in Kingston, two gunmen on a
motorcycle shot and killed a Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF)
constable in a marked vehicle stopped at a traffic light in
front of the Canadian High Commission. Nearby JCF officers
and a private security guard gave chase and killed the two
gunmen, one of whom was subsequently confirmed to be the
brother of Michael Christopher &Dudus8 Coke, a well known,
JLP-linked West Kingston &area leader.8 In related attacks
over the next 24 hours, three JCF officers and one private
security guard were killed, including when gunmen opened fire
on the Crossroads police station in the downtown area near
the Embassy. No suspects have been apprehended in any of the
killings, which are thought to be retaliation for the fatal
shooting of Tivoli Gardens gang leader Donovan Griffith,
a.k.a. &Zion Train,8 by JCF officers in late April. The
police believe that the Tivoli Gardens &Shower Posse8 gang
is avenging Griffith's death by retaliating against all
security officials: police, military, and private security
guards. Political leaders have spoken out against the
violence, and West Kingston Member of Parliament Bruce
Golding has appealed to his constituents for peace. (Septel).

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Latest Crime Statistics
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3. The latest Crime Statistics Report (CSR) compiled by the
JCF for the period covering January 1 through May 1 described
a 33 percent increase in homicides compared with the same
period in 2004. Last year saw a record number of 1,469
murders committed in Jamaica. Twenty-four percent of the
homicides were believed to be gang related. A total of 2,748
major crimes were reported this year, which actually
represents a slight decrease since 2004. Government
officials have claimed that the decrease in the number of
major crimes committed is a reflection of the success of the
Ministry of National Security's Operation Kingfish.

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Prime Minister Rolls Out the Goodies
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4. In his contribution to the 2005/2006 budget debate on
April 26, Prime Minister P.J. Patterson announced nearly USD
65 million in social spending to finance employment and
housing projects, to be administered by Members of Parliament
in their constituencies. Parliamentarians who had requested
an increase in their control over public funds have recently
been attacked in the media, but Patterson staunchly defended
the program, which he said would counter social decay,
especially in inner-city communities. Patterson's aggressive
social spending, which represents a 25 percent increase over
2004 funding available to MPs, may be what some Embassy
sources are calling Patterson's &swan song8 ) a departing
Prime Minister's generous social budget. Several sources
have offered that this is likely to be Patterson's last
budget debate as Prime Minister, and that he will announce
his retirement within the next twelve months (ref A).
-------------- -
PNP Sources Report Concerns of a Party Divided
-------------- -


5. (SBU) On May 5, Portia Simpson Miller presented her
strategy for &Jamaica ) the Way Forward8 at the 2005
Political Leadership Forum, a series of presentations by
prime ministerial candidates hosted by the Mona School of
Business at the University of the West Indies. Simpson
Miller, the Minister of Local Government, Community
Development, and Sports and front-runner candidate to succeed
P.J. Patterson as People's National Party (PNP) leader and
Prime Minister, addressed a standing-room only crowd that was
boisterous in its support of the populist candidate. The
event was the final such forum, which has hosted
presentations by Bruce Golding, leader of the Jamaica Labor
Party (JLP),and five PNP candidates. Embassy sources report
growing concern within the PNP that the unprecedented number
of leadership candidates is dividing the party. They report
that Patterson has suggested the idea of a primary vote among
PNP delegates that would narrow the field to two or three
candidates before the election takes place. The concept
reportedly has not been embraced by all candidates.

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Mexican President Fox Visits Jamaica
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6. On May 4, Mexican President Vicente Fox visited Kingston,
accompanied by a delegation of 25 government ministers,
parliamentarians, and private sector representatives. Media
reports indicate that bilateral trade and investment between
the GOM and GOJ were at the top of the agenda for the visit,
and that Fox announced that his government would review the
San Jose Accord, under which Jamaica purchases oil from
Mexico and Venezuela, with a view to increasing Jamaica's
access to available oil resources. Other issues reportedly
covered during the visit include recent developments at the
OAS, both countries' support for the FTAA, and a commitment
to work together to assist Haiti. Post will seek an MFA
read-out on the visit from a senior MFA official on May 11.

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Air Jamaica Settles Labor Dispute
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7. Following protracted pay negotiations that threatened
both the embattled airline's future and the memorandum of
understanding (MOU) that governs the GOJ,s relationship with
local trade unions, Air Jamaica reached an agreement with its
pilots that satisfied the Jamaica Airline Pilots Association
(JALPA) and its representative body, the Bustamante
Industrial Trade Union (BITU). Although the BITU has
continued its threat to withdraw from the MOU, the pilots
agreed to a 5.6 percent pay cut and a reduction in various
allowances. Minister of Labor and Social Security Horace
Dalley chaired the marathon negotiating session, which lasted
approximately 19 hours before it was signed by Air Jamaica's
newly-installed management team (septel).

TIGHE