FEAR AND HOPE IN EASTERN, RURAL NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002493

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/INS
NSC FOR RICHELSOPH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID MCAP PTER NP
SUBJECT: FEAR AND HOPE IN EASTERN, RURAL NEPAL

REF: KATHMANDU 2407

Classified By: Classified by James F. Moriarty; Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During a November 9-10 visit to the Morang and
Dhankuta Districts in Eastern Nepal, the Ambassador met with
the National Human Rights Commission's (NHRC) new Biratnagar
team, journalists, NGO representatives, government officials,
members of the business community, and discovered
considerable fear of and little sympathy for the Maoists in
the east. While the number of Maoists in the East was not
extensive, apprehension in the villages remained rampant, the
NHRC team told the Ambassador. NGO representatives and
journalists highlighted the lack of presence by government
and security forces. Dhankuta Appellate Court judges noted
that Maoist terror had resulted in a drastic decrease in
cases filed by villagers. The Ambassador also visited a
USAID-funded literacy program for girls and met with
underprivileged Dalit children. A visit to a tea plantation
highlighted the positive effects of promoting high-value crop
production to farmers, since increased prosperity in rural
areas would undermine the Maoists' base. END SUMMARY.

MAOISTS REMAIN A THREAT
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2. (C) Kuber Singh Rana, Senior Superintendent of Police of a
zonal office headquartered in Dharan, estimated that there
were 2,500 armed Maoist militants in a region covering six
districts. Rana noted that there were about 5,000 personnel,
about half of whom were RNA soldiers, under the Unified
Command to oppose the Maoists. (Note: Not all of the 5,000
would be armed as most civil police do not carry weapons. A
ratio of less than 2:1 of security personnel to insurgents is
not favorable to the government, especially given Nepal's
terrain. End note.) Rana also stated that it was an "open
secret" that the police did not have enough ammunition to

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train with their World War II-era rifles. Rana said that
since their cease-fire, Maoist attacks had decreased.
However, the Maoists were still recruiting and training,
collecting arms and logistical support in the zone. Maoist
extortion remained rampant.


3. (C) Since the September 3 declaration of the Maoist
ceasefire, an NHRC promotion officer stated, NHRC Biratnagar
had received no reports of crossfire between insurgents and
government security forces in the eastern region. However,
while the Maoists had cut back on violent attacks, they
continued to recruit civilians and force them to participate
in the insurgents' political programs. The Maoists had also
imposed passports in parts of rural Nepal. The "Terai
Liberation Front," a splinter faction of the Maoists, had
also created a "new headache" in the area through abductions
and forced donations. The group had also added an ethnic
dimension to the conflict by forcing tribal people from the
hilly areas out of Siraha District.

FEAR OF MAOISTS RAMPANT IN THE VILLAGES ...
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4. (C) Even though Maoist presence in Eastern Nepal was not
extensive, fear in the villages was rampant, both Chief
District Officer (CDO) Sambhu Ghimire and NGO representatives
told the Ambassador. A "complete absence of government" was
to blame, NGO representatives explained, lamenting that even
UN agencies such as the UN Office of the High Commissioner
for Human Rights (OHCHR) had yet to visit Eastern Nepal's
rural areas. Security forces generally patrolled the areas
surrounding their district headquarters and rarely ventured
beyond the main roads, fearing for their own safety, the
representatives stressed. Political parties were "honest,
but weak" at the village level, they added, with little
ability to extend their presence in the rural areas even
after the Maoist ceasefire. Elections could build the
confidence of the people, the Ambassador suggested, which
would undermine the Maoists' hold on the rural population.
The CDO commented that his office had already issued voter
identity cards and prepared a security plan to ensure voters'
safety.

... CAUSING JUDICIAL CASES TO DROP,
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5. (C) Their court's caseload had dropped by ninety percent
over the last three to four years, Chief Judge Kamanda Prasad
Dev and Judge Kem Raj Sharma, Dhankuta Appellate Court, told
the Ambassador. While the Ambassador noted this downward
trend was consistent with other areas he had visited, the
judges cited fear of and intimidation by the Maoists as well
as the court's inability to reach remote areas to serve
papers as reasons. They also pointed out the remnants of gun
shots on their front gate, where Maoists had killed the
Court's security guard six months prior. A "fear psychosis"
remained, they added. The judges speculated that villagers
feared Maoist retribution if they brought cases to court
(rather than using the Maoist "court system"). The judges
also noted that no Maoist had ever been tried on terrorist
charges in Nepal.

AND IDPS TO INCREASE
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6. (C) Nepal's young people suffered the most, the NHRC team
explained, as Maoists forcibly recruited them and security
forces targeted them as suspected Maoists, leading to their
flight and an ever-burgeoning internally displaced person
(IDP) problem, which the state did not yet have a policy to
address. Separately, a journalist told the Ambassador that
Maoists' continued pressure on rural families to contribute
one family member to the insurgency was "eating up an entire
generation" who were either fleeing the country or increasing
the masses of Nepal's IDPs. The reporter added "they have
nowhere to go, but they're going."

JOURNALISTS: PEACE LOSING GROUND
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7. (SBU) During an informal lunch with six journalists from
the eastern region, the Ambassador stressed that the
government's restrictions on press freedoms had been a "step
away" from democracy. The ultimate goal remained a return to
a functioning democracy. The question remained how to get
the Palace and the Parties to begin a dialogue. Journalists
noted that the gap between the King and the Parties was
widening, which, the Ambassador noted, put Nepal at great
risk, as the Maoists had been able to use the growing
division to their advantage. The Palace's recent media
ordinance proved that the split would be increasingly
difficult to bridge, the journalists explained, adding that
the eastern region's four FM stations had ceased broadcasting
news since the ordinance. One journalist observed that the
growing divide between the Palace and the Parties, combined
with the talks between the Parties and the Maoists, indicated
that it is "peace that is losing ground."


8. (SBU) Underlining that the U.S. government remained deeply
worried about Nepal's Maoist problem, the Ambassador told
journalists that the ultimate solution would be for the
Maoists to lay down their arms and return to the political
mainstream. The unilateral Maoist ceasefire, however, was
"no indication" that the Maoists were ready to do this, as
they continued to extort, abduct and terrorize civilians; if
the Palace were to respond, it could be an important "test of
the Maoists' resolve," the Ambassador stated.

NHRC EASTERN OFFICE: BUILDING A HUMAN RIGHTS CULTURE
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9. (C) At the National Human Rights Commission's Eastern
Nepal Biratnagar office, Diana Baker, a USAID-funded
international advisor, along with the Nepali team of
protection officers, a promotion officer, and the regional
director, explained that they had been working hard to
"inculcate a human rights culture" in Nepal's eastern region
since the NHRC Biratnagar office opened in February 2005.
They noted that 378 cases had been registered with their
office since February, which included 205 alleged violations
by the government, 156 by the Maoists, and 17 by others.
While none of the Nepali staff was specifically trained in
conducting human rights investigations, they were "learning
by doing" investigations, monitoring, and awareness raising.
By putting themselves on the front lines, Baker noted, the
NHRC team was slowly winning the respect of the human rights
community, which had broken ties with the NHRC in May when
HMGN reconstituted the Commission through a method questioned
by many. However, many NGOs still refused to attend NHRC
events if any of the new Commissioners was present.


10. (C) Access to detention centers remained "limited," the
NHRC team asserted; in RNA facilities, NHRC officials had not
been permitted to freely roam the grounds and interviews were
conducted in a meeting room in the presence of security
personnel. They said that access was not a problem at
civilian detention centers. Since February 1, however,
access had improved, particularly because the RNA had
developed human rights cells. The NHRC remained frustrated
with the government's failure to respond to its
recommendations, as well as by its lack of direct
communication with the Maoists, which had necessitated that
NHRC issue public appeals. The NHRC asked for the
international community's continued support and any human
rights training it could provide.

BUSINESS COMMUNITY: ECONOMIC OPTIONS UNDERMINE THE INSURGENCY
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11. (SBU) Members of the Dhankuta Chamber of Commerce told
the Ambassador that the Maoists remained their biggest
concern as the insurgents continued to kill and extort
business men and women. "We need democracy first," one
businesswoman stressed, "and then the Palace, Parties, and
Maoists can find a way back to peace." Once these factors
were in place, the Peace Corps and international investors
would return to Nepal, Chamber members hoped. Nepal had good
market potential with its neighbors, the Ambassador noted,
but investors would continue to shy away until democracy and
peace were restored. One possible economic remedy to address
the Maoist problem was to encourage smallholder farmers to
produce high-value crops such as specialty tea. During a
visit to a Dhankuta tea plantation, the Vice President of the
Nepal Tea Association explained that the production of
specialty tea could increase farmers' incomes by up to forty
percent, thereby lessening the Maoists' attraction and
eroding their poor, rural base. The USAID-supported Tea and
Coffee Development Alliance had played a key role in
developing the Himalayan Tea Producers Cooperative, which was
working with the Specialty Tea Association of America to
create a Code of Conduct for the industry. The Cooperative
had already exported Nepali tea worth USD 1.7 million and
attracted the interest of Whole Foods and Tazo Tea, a
division of Starbucks.

USAID-SUPPORTED LITERACY PROGRAMS: CHANGING NEPAL'S FUTURE
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12. (U) In a visit to the USAID/World Education-supported
Girls' Access to Education (GATE) program, the Ambassador met
with more than thirty girls participating in health-based
literacy classes. Parents had advocated for the
participation of their daughters in the GATE program, in
which 259 students were now learning basic literacy through
courses focused on issues ranging from keeping their farms
clean to not getting married before reaching the age of
twenty. The program also featured a small loan finance
program, which allowed girls to borrow sums to start business
ventures such as vegetable selling and chicken raising. In a
separate visit, the Ambassador met with 21 children
participating in the Scholarship Endowment Program in
Dhankuta, a USAID-supported Save the Children program. The
program works with the Nepal National Dalit Social Welfare
Organization to support Dalits in pursuing educational goals,
providing tuition and basic supplies such as books, uniforms
and kerosene for lamps to study by. The continuing
participation of the program's alumni, some of whom have
pursued graduate studies and successful careers, served as
testament to the program's ability to help dismantle social
and economic barriers for Nepal's lowest caste.

COMMENT
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13. (C) Even though the number of Maoists is not high in
Nepal's Eastern Development Region, neither is the number of
security personnel. Fear remains widespread in the rural
communities, where there is Maoist penetration into just
about every village. The atmosphere is drastically different
than in Kathmandu, where people have fallen into a state of
complacency. Nearly a year after the last major Maoist
attack inside the city, and particularly since the
cease-fire, a significant number of Kathmandu-based
politicians apparently want to believe the Maoists'
assertions that they are seriously considering giving up
violence and entering the political mainstream. The people
in Eastern Nepal would take such claims with a large grain of
salt.
MORIARTY