FORMER PRESIDENT MEGAWATI CRITICIZES YUDHOYONO'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 015147


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT MEGAWATI CRITICIZES YUDHOYONO'S
PERFORMANCE

REF: A. JAKARTA 12416 (OPPOSITION GROUP)

B. JAKARTA 2378 (MEGAWATI WORRIES ABOUT ISLAMISTS)

Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason: 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a November 18 meeting with the Ambassador, former
President Megawati Soekarnoputri played the part of
opposition leader to the hilt, expressing dismay with the
performance of the current administration and President
Yudhoyono's reliance on Islamist political parties. Megawati
downplayed the importance of her participation in a group of
leading disempowered political figures, but said she would
guard her party's status as an alternative to the status quo.
She worried about implementation of th Ach paceaccr
and recommended restructuigIdonsi's naionl election
process. Megawti,whoremie nde observation after a
case f dngue fver sad hr husband, Taufik Kiemas, might
require three more months to recover fully from health
problems. End Summary.

RECOVERING FROM DENGUE
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2. (C) Receiving the Ambassador at her Teuku Umar residence,
former President Megawati appeared relaxed and in a good mood
despite her relatively recent discharge from the hospital.
She confirmed press reports that she had suffered from dengue
fever and said she remained under observation. She
attributed the illness to her travels around Indonesia, as
she sought to consolidate affairs within her Indonesian
Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P). Megawati said
conditions within PDI-P had improved, especially on the
Central Board, thanks in part to the efforts of party
Secretary General Pramono Anung.


3. (C) Megawati said her husband, Taufik Kiemas, also
hospitalized in October, might need another three months to
recuperate from heart problems. (Note: According to our
contacts, Taufik, although now discharged from the hospital,
suffers from a grave condition and might not fully recover.
Press reports indicate he needed treatment for heart disease,
although one contact stated he showed signs of an impending
stroke when he checked into the hospital. End Note.)

DISAPPOINTED WITH ADMINISTRATION'S PERFORMANCE
-------------- -


4. (C) The Ambassador remarked on the recent success of the
police in tracking down JeaahIslmiyh bmbmaker Azahari
Bin Husin. He rviewedtheEmbssys cntinuing concerns
about terorsm n Idonsia Speaking in the most general
trms eawai reported her disappointment with the
performance of President Yudhoyono. She said that the
current situation appeared worse than during her term in
office. Cabinet Ministers seemed more partisan than before,
and the government had become generally less effective.

YUDHOYONO'S WEAKNESS
--------------


5. (C) Yudhoyono's poor performance appeared tied to his weak
political base, Megawati said. She noted Yudhoyono received
little effective support from his own Democratic Party, whose
Chairman, Hadi Utomo, lacked political vision. She worried
that Yudhoyono, despite his own nationalist (read: secular)
tendencies, seemed overly reliant on Islamist parties,
particularly the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). PKS
appeared to have momentum, while the more inclusive National
Mandate Party (PAN) appeared in decline, since former PAN
Chairman Amien Rais' grip on the party had weakened.


6. (C) Megawati estimated that Golkar had moved toward the
Islamist side of Indonesia's political spectrum ever since
former House of Representatives (DPR) Chairman Akbar Tandjung
lost the party chairmanship. Megawati said Golkar's shift
reflected current party Chairman Jusuf Kalla's leanings. A
recent reshuffle of commission leadership positions in the
DPR had displaced Akbar's allies, empowered Kalla loyalists,
and provided opportunities to politicians with an Islamist
inclination. (Comment: Allegations of Golkar becoming
"greener" precede Kalla's chairmanship. Previously, critics
complained that Akbar Tandjung imparted more of an Islamic
tinge to the party. End Comment.) These personnel changes
in the DPR also increased internal friction within Golkar,
Megawati observed.

ACEH
--------------


7. (C) The Ambassador raised PDI-P's opposition to the Aceh
peace accord, noting the USG strongly supported resolution of
the conflict. Megawati claimed that the Free Aceh Movement
(GAM) surrender of weapons had proceeded more slowly than it
should. She said she heard conditions in Aceh did not appear
as hopeful as the peace accord might imply. She worried in
particular that both the GAM and the GOI would experience
internal problems as they tried to live up to the agreement.
(Comment: We disagree with the assessment that GAM's
surrender of weapons has lagged expectations and see
Megawati's antipathy toward the Yudhoyono administration
coloring her perception of the accord and manifesting itself
in her vague critique. End Comment.)

OPPOSITION
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador requested Megawati's perspective on the
role of an informal grouping of prominent politicians
(herself, Abdurrahman Wahid, Akbar Tandjung, Wiranto, and Try
Sutrisno -- ref A). Megawati said this group sought to
receive information on developments in Indonesia and would
make public statements in order to improve the government's
functioning. Noting that only she and Wahid led political
parties, Megawati said she often felt that PDI-P occupied a
lonely position in the DPR because Wahid's National Awakening
Party (PKB) seemed susceptible to influence from Yudhoyono's
sympathizers. Megawati said, nevertheless, that PDI-P should
remain as an alternative to the current administration,
seemingly confirming press reports that she rejected offers
to put allies into a reshuffled cabinet.

ELECTORAL SYSTEM
--------------


9. (C) Reflecting on the 2004 election, Megawati complained
that the process had proven overly drawn out, rendering her
ineffective for the last eight months of her term. The
election required an enormous logistical effort to ensure the
distribution of instructions and materials throughout the
archipelago, and protecting presidential candidates
represented a significant burden for the GOI. Looking ahead,
Megawati said the DPR should revise the legal framework so
that the next presidential election took place before the
legislative election. She said PDI-P would propose this in
the DPR.

COMMENT
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10. (C) Despite her recent case of dengue, Megawati appeared
more relaxed and confident than in her last meeting with the
Ambassador (ref B). She might have good reason: PDI-P has
turned in a stronger performance than its rivals in
Indonesia's local elections, winning three of seven
gubernatorial races and outpacing Golkar at the city/regency
level. Megawati also likely takes pleasure in seeing
Yudhoyono come under pressure from political parties
jockeying for cabinet seats, knowing that the President can
neither keep his supporters in suspense indefinitely nor
devise a reshuffle formula that will satisfy all of them.
Although Megawati has taken note of PKS's impressive growth,
that party's pragmatic support for the current administration
leaves PDI-P as the most appealing alternative to the status
quo -- a good position to hold, as Megawati learned the hard
way in 2004.

PASCOE