ISTANBUL POLITICS: TAYYIP BEY STILL IN CHARGE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 002053

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL POLITICS: TAYYIP BEY STILL IN CHARGE?

REF: ISTANBUL 1734

Classified By: Consul General Deborah K. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: Istanbul Mayor Kadir Topbas captured the
city's attention last month when he fired Istanbul Deputy
Mayor Idris Gulluce, following intense media speculation that
Gulluce was the real power behind the throne. The move
allowed Topbas to regain "face," but privately contacts have
told us that while Gulluce was scapegoated for the sake of
public perception, he continues to enjoy both grassroots
support and support from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Gulluce has since been elected Chairman of the Municipal
Assembly and named supporters to head the Assembly's planning
and zoning commissions. End Summary.


2. (U) Front page news: The dismissal of Istanbul
deputy-mayor Idris Gulluce November 8 and subsequent
resignation of the municipal Secretary General and Deputy
Secretary, both Gulluce supporters, roiled municipal politics

SIPDIS
and sparked speculation about disarray in the city's ruling
Justice and Development (AK) Party. Rumors that Gulluce was
the real power behind the municipality's throne had been
circulating for weeks and emerged in the press in the wake of
controversial plans to build a mosque in Kadikoy's Goztepe
Park (reftel) and to launch a third bridge project on the
Bosphorus. In a November 8 statement announcing Gulluce's
dismissal, Mayor Topbas said he had no personal problems with
the Deputy Mayor, but that "media speculation could lead
people to think I have no more control of the authority
voters gave me." To prevent that, he said, he had to make a
"radical decision."


3. (C) Sacked, but still supported: On the surface this
development allowed Mayor Topbas to save face with the
public, and he has since projected control by calling off the
unpopular third bridge project. Privately, however, contacts
have told us that Gulluce was scapegoated for the sake of
public perception, and that he still exercises great
influence. Prior to the sacking, a poll had shown support
for the AKP in Istanbul declining by 13 percent, with some
observers attributing the dip to Gulluce's outspokenness on
the Goztepe Park mosque and other "conservative" antics.
Yildiz University political scientist Fulya Atacan told us
November 29 that, regardless of what caused the dip in
popularity, PM Erdogan was obliged to support Topbas over
Gulluce, as Topbas was a longtime loyal supporter. Press
reports had speculated that the Prime Minister must have
tacitly approved the firing. Atacan did not rule that out,
but maintained that Gulluce still has the Prime Minister's
support.


4. (C) "The Mayor is honest, but weak": CHP's leader in the
Municipal Assembly and Deputy Mayor of Besiktas municipality
Kemal Akar told us November 22 that Prime Minister Erdogan,
when selecting a mayoral candidate last year, had been intent
on finding someone who would not surface as a competitor or
outshine him, as he had outshone then Prime Minister Erbakan
in the 1990s during his term as Istanbul Mayor. Akar said
Gulluce had also been a candidate, and had likely enjoyed
greater grassroots support, but that Erdogan chose Topbas
instead for this reason. In order to placate Gulluce, Akar
claimed, the Prime Minister arranged that he would co-govern
the city with Topbas, in a specially created "Deputy Mayor"
position. (Note: Professor Atacan confirmed that such a
position had not existed before. Since Gulluce's firing, the
position has been abolished. End note.) Akar considers the
Mayor to be honest and sincere, but says "he is weak, and
they do not leave him alone," adding that "decisions are not
made in Istanbul; the Prime Minister wants to run Istanbul
himself."


5. (C) Reshuffling commissions: Meanwhile, Gulluce,
considered to be of the more conservative, "Milli Gorus"
(National View, note: closely affiliated with Necmettin
Erbakan and his Islamic political parties) flank of the
party, maintains strong support in the Istanbul Municipal
Assembly, which subsequently elected him Chairman with a
large majority. Akar told us Gulluce is now shuffling the
Assembly's commission chairmanships, as revenge for his
sacking, and replaced Tankut Gundogar, a more "liberal name"
who headed up the planning commission, with a more
conservative individual from Kartal district. Sefer Kocabas,
AKP Istanbul Chairman Mehmet Muezzinoglu's business partner,
was reportedly elected as the head of the all-important
Zoning Commission.


6. (C) Comment: The house-cleaning has enabled Mayor Topbas
to reinforce his public profile as the man in charge in
Istanbul, but behind the scenes the situation remains much
murkier. With Gulluce's continued influence in the assembly
and apparent ability to send Topbas proteges (like Gundogar)
packing, soon after they had made the jump to politics and
public service from the business world, further fireworks are
a distinct possibility. End Comment.
JONES