PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE RESPONSE: WHERE WE ARE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 016480

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PASS TO USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015
TAGS: EAID MARR MASS PNAT PREL PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE RESPONSE: WHERE WE ARE AND
WHERE WE'RE GOING


1. (U) Summary. As we approach the one-month anniversary of
the earthquake, post offers this overview of relief efforts
to date and an assessment of key priorities for the future.
The earthquake itself caused much more damage and loss of
life than initially estimated, but the Pakistani and
international response has generally been strong -- with the
United States leading in most categories of assistance. The
humanitarian relief phase of the assistance effort began with
clearing operations and the delivery of search and rescue
teams, medical aid, food and shelter. This phase is
continuing with a heavy focus on preparation for harsh winter
conditions and it will last at least until winter begins to
subside at the end of March. (We expect the November 19
donors conference will set the agenda for the reconstruction
phase of the donor response.) In the immediate aftermath of
the earthquake, the U.S. and international donors have
focused on airlifting urgently needed supplies and equipment
into the theater and onward by helicopter into the affected
areas. The need for air shipments into Pakistan will
continue as we prepare for the onset of winter, but the need
will diminish over time as NGOs and international
organizations find more sustainable sources locally and in
the region. The need for helicopter lift into quake-hit
regions will continue at least through the winter. End
Summary.

Earthquake Response to Date
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2. (U) As more reliable numbers begin to emerge, the full
impact of the 7.6 magnitude earthquake and the level of
international response are becoming clear. The GOP is now
reporting 73,000 dead and 69,000 injured. Press reports
suggest that in some areas men are virtually the only
survivors, as women and children were predominantly in homes
or schools that collapsed. An estimated 2.8 million
Pakistanis require shelter assistance. The humanitarian
response to the earthquake is a work in progress, but has for
the most part been timely and effective. The Pakistani
military response has been especially impressive, and the GOP
response structures have begun to coalesce. Personnel on the
ground are learning fast.


3. (U) The United States has been quick to respond and has
played a very significant and visible role in earthquake
recovery. Six Navy ships have delivered 115 pieces of heavy
equipment and 158 tons of humanitarian relief supplies from
US, Egyptian, and Gulf State donations. The USAF has run
well over a hundred airlifts into Pakistan. The US Army,
Navy, and NAS have flown over 1,500 helicopter sorties into
the north delivering more than 4.3 million pounds of goods.
Thirty one U.S., and US funded, helicopters are flying relief
missions. Of the roughly 8,900 tons of relief supplies
received by Pakistan by November 3, the U.S. accounts for
some 4,100 tons (46 percent),dwarfing any other single
donor. US helicopters have delivered over 2,100 tons of
relief supplies; the closest runner up among donors is the
UK, with 182 tons (8 percent of the US total). Even Pakistan
(at 496 tons) has delivered less than a quarter of the U.S.
total.


4. (U) USAID has committed $41.8 million, with the focus on
shelter, water and sanitation and other relief supplies.
Military humanitarian assistance is at least $60 million thus
far. DoD has 933 deployed personnel to provide relief and
reconstruction assistance and has established a Mobile Army
Surgical Hospital (MASH) in Muzaffarabad. To date, almost
600 patients have been served, including 46 surgeries. By 7
November a U.S. Marine field hospital will be open in
Mansehra. The Embassy has established and staffed Forward
Operating Bases in Muzaffarabad and Mansehra to help
coordinate USG aid and assist Pakistani Authorities.

Get Them Through The Winter
--------------


5. (U) The strategic objective of the current relief phase
is to get the population of the affected area through the
winter, until the end of March. The key needs include
shelter, blankets, food and medical supplies.


6. (U) Shelter: We estimate that 400,000 households will
require some form of shelter assistance and at least 10,000
large tents will be needed to house clinics, schoolrooms,
offices and the like. The GOP maintains that a combination
of donor contributions, existing supplies and intensive
domestic production will generate 500,000 tents by the end of
November. Assuming the GOP is correct and that the
domestically manufactured tents are adequate, the unmet need
will be for the larger tents, plus plastic sheeting to
upgrade family tents as necessary. However, we also expect
that at least 60 percent of families will choose to stay at
or near their existing (destroyed) homes, so the tents will
need to be augmented by selected building materials to enable
families to self-engineer a "warm dry room" during the
winter. These materials include plastic sheeting, corrugated
metal roofs and stoves, fuel and household goods.


7. (U) Blankets: The GOP hopes to provide two blankets per
person for an affected population numbering an estimated 3.3
million (i.e., 6.6 million blankets). Some 3.8 million
blankets have been provided to date, leaving a gap of 2.8
million.


8. (U) Food: While there is not an immediate acute need for
food, orders must be placed soon in order to ensure adequate
supplies for the winter, particularly if a large population
of refugees moves into the camps being established by the
GOP. The World Food Program estimates the food need at
720,000 metric tons, enough to feed 2.8 million people for 6
months. As a net food importer, Pakistan will not be able to
meet this incremental food need via domestic production; much
of it will have to be shipped in.


9. (U) Other Supplies: Roughly 65 percent of the health
infrastructure in the affected area has been destroyed. Over
the longer term, this infrastructure will have to be
reconstructed, but there is an immediate need to replenish
stocks of antibiotics and other drugs. We will be ordering
up to ten health kits (that can serve up to 10,000 people
each for three months). Other needed supplies include family
hygiene kits, tool kits and cooking kits.

An Evolving Relief Effort
--------------


10. (U) The initial emergency phase of this humanitarian
relief effort has required rapid delivery of supplies and, in
many cases, direct execution of relief operations by U.S. and
Pakistani military elements. This emergency phase will last
for at least another two weeks as we prepare for the onset of
winter. During this period, U.S. military airlift capacity
will be urgently required for delivery to Pakistan of shelter
materials, blankets, food and other supplies identified in
paras 5-9. Over time, however, there will be a natural
transition toward more cost effective and efficient sea-lift
transport and delivery mechanisms as partner NGOs develop
local sources for these goods. Despite daily improvement in
some road networks, medium helicopter lift will remain
essential through the winter to deliver supplies from depots
in Islamabad and elsewhere to remote areas in the north
isolated by massive land-slides.

Comment
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11. (C) The quantity and timeliness of U.S. assistance is
beginning to pay measurable dividends in terms of local
perceptions of the United States in general and the U.S.
military in particular. English and Urdu press regularly
carry pictures of U.S. helicopters and relief supplies as
well as articles that credit the U.S. for its response. In
our judgment, U.S. actions have already had a measurable
impact on perceptions among Pakistani Kashmiris and within
the Pakistani military (most of whom have never had sustained
contact with the U.S. military). In view of what we have
already invested, and the positive impact it has had, we will
need to be careful as we approach the transition toward a
more sustainable USG relief effort. It is essential that
Pakistanis not see this transition as a lessening of U.S.
commitment and we should seek to preserve the positive
visibility our military has received.


12. (C) U.S. military assets -- including helicopter lift
and medical units -- will continue to be needed in some
amount through the winter for essential humanitarian reasons.
We should also begin to consider whether there are aspects of
the reconstruction phase the U.S. military could usefully
participate in. The positive and benign aspect of the US
military on display in Pakistan and throughout the region may
offer a strategic opportunity for continued humanitarian
activity as a major premise of military engagement over the
next two years.
CROCKER