PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: AN OPEN DOOR TO KASHMIR?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 015731

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015
TAGS: PK PREL PGOV IN
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: AN OPEN DOOR TO KASHMIR?


Classified By: Derived from DSCG 05-01, B



1. (C) Summary: During an October 18 press conference,
President Musharraf sent out a trial balloon on Kashmir,
announcing that Pakistan would allow Kashmiri
civilians--including Kashmiri politicians--from across the
LOC to come to Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) to meet relatives
and assist in reconstruction work. Musharraf also proposed
opening mobile and landline communication links between
Kashmiris on either side of the border, a move that was
matched by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a few hours
later. Musharraf's announcement supporting the free movement
of Kashmiris across the border apparently had not been
coordinated with the GOP Ministry of Foreign Affairs or
Indian counterparts. Musharraf told the press that the idea
was a "suggestion" from Pakistan, and that the modalities
would have to be worked out. Reaction on both sides of the
border appeared positive, leaving open now only the question
of when and how. End Summary.

A NEW MUSHARRAF PROPOSAL ON KASHMIR
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2. (U) During a press conference in Muzaffarabad, President
Musharraf unveiled a new plan to allow Kashmiris from across
the Indian side of the Line of Control (LOC) to enter AJK to
"help their brothers in reconstruction work on this side."
While categorical that the proposal was only for civilians,
Musharraf said he was open to the idea of allowing political
leaders from the two sides to meet and interact on
reconstruction issues. He also suggested the opening of
landline and mobile phone links between Kashmiris on either
side of the border, something which has been unavailable for
several years.


3. (C) Musharraf described his announcement as a "suggestion"
and said that the modalities would have to be worked out
formally by both sides. A call to Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA) Director for Kashmir Affairs Miriam Aftab today
confirmed that it was an idea developed by Musharraf (or his
close aides) and not by the MFA. (Comment: If left to the
MFA, there would be no creative thinking on this or any other
aspect of the Kashmir issue. End note.) Aftab candidly
admitted that she had been cut out of the loop and was unable
to answer questions on how or when Musharraf's proposals
would be implemented, whether dialogue with the Indian side
had begun, or who the key players in the process were.

PAKISTANI AND INDIAN REACTION
--------------

4. (C) Musharraf's announcement received front-page coverage
in this morning's Urdu and English language dailies, which
continue to be otherwise consumed by earthquake-related news.
Newspaper articles covering Musharraf's proposal were upbeat
and positive in most Pakistani newspapers; editorial comment
will take another day to emerge. Thus far, opposition
parties--including the MMA--have remained quiet on the
proposal. Militant groups, including the Islamabad-based
United Jihad Council, welcomed the move, saying it would
strengthen the cause of Kashmiris.


5. (C) Press reports indicate that the Indian Government
reacted warmly to Musharraf's proposals, portraying them as
well in line with what India has long advocated--greater
movement across the LOC. India's External Ministry Spokesman
Natvej Sarna and former Indian Ambassador to Islamabad G.
Parthasarthy were quoted in the Indian Express and Reuters
saying that India welcomed the remarks, and that they
"vindicated India's advocacy of the need for a soft border."
Sarna said he is waiting for word from Pakistan to work out
the "practical details" of implementing Musharraf's proposal.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh immediately acted on
Musharraf's call for better communication links, ordering the
Department of telecommunications to set up four Telecom
Facilitation Centers (one each in Srinagar, Jamu, Uri, and
Tangdhar). The Indian telecommunications centers are supposed
to be operational for two weeks, starting today. Kashmiri
groups--including the main separatist alliance in Indian
Kashmir--the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) said they
welcomed the offer.
COMMENT
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6. (C) Musharraf's proposal is a well-timed attempt to turn
public opinion in Kashmir to his side. Given the beating the
GOP has taken for reacting too slowly to the crisis and
several media accounts of militant groups being first on the
ground, Musharraf's suggestion to reunite divided families
and allow freer movement of relief personnel across the LOC
is a welcome step. Consistent with Musharraf's usual style,
he announced first and has left it to the bureaucrats to work
out later. What happens to the proposal sticks remains to be
seen; the Pakistani bureaucracy will only move on the
proposal if consistent pressure is applied from the top.
CROCKER