AVIAN FLU: FRESH OUTBREAK IN SOUTHERN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HO CHI MINH CITY 000058

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

USDOC for 6500 and 4431/MAC/AP/OPB/VLC/HPPHO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAGR KPAO SENV PGOV SOCI VM AFLU
SUBJECT: AVIAN FLU: FRESH OUTBREAK IN SOUTHERN
VIETNAM

REF: 04 HO CHI MINH CITY 001258


1. (U) SUMMARY: Since the end of December 2004,
Vietnam's southern provinces have experienced a
renewed outbreak of avian flu. Southern provincial
authorities have issued a ban on the transport of
poultry and poultry products within and out of
disease-stricken areas. Chicken is disappearing from
local menus and markets, though the availability and
popularity of eggs so far remains unchanged. Local
media reports on the outbreak have been timely and
widespread, significantly raising public awareness
about this most recent outbreak of avian flu. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In the past two weeks, Vietnamese doctors
have confirmed five people have died from becoming
infected with the H5N1 virus, with three other
possible cases waiting to be confirmed. A total of 16
have been hospitalized as suspected cases, all within
southern Vietnam. The Animal Health Department
reported on January 16 that a total of 67,038
chickens, 68,203 ducks and geese, and 98,750 quail
have been culled or died of avian flu in southern
Vietnam.


3. (SBU) Since December 26, 2004, major news dailies
based in Ho Chi Minh City have been reporting
prominently on the fresh outbreak of avian flu (H5N1)
in Vietnam. The papers have given the story front
page, above-the-fold coverage, with more detailed
stories continuing on page three. Leading papers
covering the story include the Communist Party paper
of HCMC 'Saigon Giaiphong' ('Saigon Liberation'),
'Nguoi Lao Dong' ('The 'Worker') and 'Tuoi Tre'
('Youth'),the highest circulation general interest
daily in the nation. Vietnamese reporters, who tend
to err on the side of caution in reporting health
crises, appear to be building on their experience with
the first avian flu outbreak in 2004. The reporting
is more detailed, analytical and avoids inclusion of
more sensational comments from outside observers. To
date, this reporting seems to have achieved partial,
if not complete, success in raising awareness of avian
flu.


4. (SBU) Often with accompanying photos, coverage has
been both factual and analytical. For example, "The
Worker" reported that the transport of poultry on
passenger buses from the Mekong Delta region to HCMC
would increase the risk of the spread of bird flu.
After this report, transporting poultry in passenger
cars was banned. Newspapers have conducted interviews
with local Vietnamese health officials and
veterinarians highlighting the risks, seeking to raise
public awareness of the disease. Southern provincial
authorities have since issued a ban on the transport
and trade of poultry and poultry products within or
out of the 18 provinces in the Mekong Delta affected
by avian flu. Additionally, Prime Minister Phan Van
Khai issued a directive this week to temporarily ban
all imported poultry and poultry products from
neighboring countries.


5. (SBU) A sure sign that public awareness is on the
rise is the decline in chicken prices and the
disappearance of poultry from many menus. According
to a local caterer, poultry prices have been dropping
since early January. The price of poultry in December
was VND27,300/kg, falling to VND25,500/kg by the
second week of January. Customer orders for chicken
declined significantly by the second week of January
and school cafeterias dropped orders for chicken
completely. Starting next week, the caterer will not
offer chicken at all due to declining demand and for
reasons of safety. One local expatriate grocer told
EconOff that she has not noted any change in either
supply or price of poultry since the most recent avian
flu outbreak. However, this grocer sources all of her
poultry locally through one supplier, and the grocer
admitted she was unsure how long her supplier would be
able to meet the even lower levels of demand.


6. (SBU) Comparatively, the past week and a half has
seen an increase in prices for other types of meat,
according to local contacts. The most notable
increase has been in the price of fish, a ready
substitute for chicken. Mackerel prices have risen
from VND24,000/kg to VND30,000/kg and tuna from
VND12,000/kg to VN16,000/kg. Pork has also seen a
moderate price increase, with pork ribs increasing
from VND36,000/kg to VND40,000/kg and lean cuts of
pork from VND32,000/kg to VND35,000/kg. Beef prices
continue to remain stable. Current events do not
appear to have had an effect on egg prices or
consumption levels.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Vietnam will continue to struggle
with avian flu, which will directly affect the
stability of local poultry markets. The swiftness of
this most recent outbreak highlights the potential for
Vietnam to import U.S. poultry products to meet local
demand, especially given the recent ban on poultry
from neighboring countries. The current decline in
poultry demand is significant as Vietnam approaches
the lunar new year holiday, where chicken dishes
traditionally figure prominently in new year
celebrations. END COMMENT.

WINNICK