AVIAN FLU IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM: COMPLACENCY SETS IN

UNCLAS HO CHI MINH CITY 000534

SIPDIS


FOR CA/OCS/ACS/EAP; EAP/EX; EAP/BCLTV; OES/STC (M.GOLDBERG);
OES/IHA (D.SINGER AND N.COMELLA)
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID/RDM/A - MFRIEDMAN
STATE PASS HHS FOR STEIGER
USDA FOR FAS/PASS TO APHIS
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP FOR LEW STERN
DIRAFMIC FOR WENNER, MULLINS, WYMA
USAID FOR GHB, ANE/DCAROLL, SCLEMENTS AND PCHAPLIN

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EAGR KPAO SENV PGOV SOCI VM AFLU
SUBJECT: AVIAN FLU IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM: COMPLACENCY SETS IN

REF: Ho Chi Minh City 00058


1. (U) Summary: Although avian influenza continues to pose a
serious medical and economic risk to Vietnam since the most recent
outbreak in December 2004, average Vietnamese citizens in southern
and central Vietnam have modified neither their diet nor their
livelihood, continuing to eat and raise poultry. Driving this
complacent attitude, in part, seem to be mixed signals given by
Vietnamese media, reporting on one hand that avian flu is waning
and on the other, decrying the inefficiency of local governments
in enforcing necessary preventive measures. Another factor is
cultural -- an ingrained tolerance and acceptance of the
inevitability of disease. End summary.


2. (U) Since December 2004, 41 avian flu cases and 16 confirmed
deaths have been reported in Vietnam, according to the World
Health Organization. Regional authorities have imposed
restrictions on importing poultry from other affected countries
and have culled more than 46 million poultry, costing an estimated
VND 1.3 trillion (approximately USD 82.3 million) since December

2003. Thirty-five of Vietnam's 61 provinces and urban districts
have reported cases of avian influenza, particularly in and around
Ho Chi Minh City and in the Mekong Delta provinces. Avian
influenza has cost Vietnam an estimated VND 500 billion
(approximately USD 31.6 million),reducing GDP by 0.5 per cent --
equivalent to about VND 3,000 billion (approximately USD 189.9
million),according to a report in the national daily Nguoi Lao
Dong ("The Worker") dated April 19.


3. (SBU) The leading newspapers in HCMC, including Tuoi Tre
("Youth"),the most widely circulated daily in Vietnam, Thanh Nien
("Young People") and Saigon Giai Phong ("Saigon Liberation"),
initially led the charge for public awareness of preventive safety
and hygiene measures after the most recent outbreak of avian
influenza in December 2004. Reporting was timely and widespread,
increasing public awareness of avian influenza (reftel). In
recent weeks, the intensity of media reporting on avian influenza
has waned. During the last week of April there was not a single
report on avian influenza in any of the prominent HCMC daily
newspapers.


4. (SBU) Media reporting has also been inconsistent in content.
Thanh Nien reported that avian influenza had been controlled in
all provinces except for Tra Vinh in the Mekong Delta, and that
the virus was on the wane. On the other hand, subsequent articles
by HCMC dailies, including Thanh Nien, decried regional
governments' implementation of safety measures. During the week
of April 18, the National Steering Committee on the Prevention of
Bird Flu organized a conference in Hanoi to review the fight
against avian influenza. According to Thanh Nien, the committee
released a report concluding that Vietnam had yet to implement all
regulations to halt the spread of the virus, such as rules on the
slaughter and disposal of infected poultry and the movement of
poultry across international borders. While careful to not
overtly criticize the central government, the report cited
regional governments as being an impediment to stamping out the
virus. According to Thanh Nien, the report states, "They [GVN
leaders] do take it seriously at the top levels. But the fight
against avian influenza is not up to the government at top levels,
it's up to the chairman of the local People's Committee."


5. (SBU) It appears that many people in southern Vietnam view
avian influenza as no different than other viruses that have beset
the country. Few Vietnamese have modified their lifestyles
regarding either diet or raising livestock. While HCMC has
banned raising poultry, chickens can still be found moving around
freely in central-city areas, sometimes near police stations. In
rural areas, fowl continue to be an interlocking part of life with

farmers. One ConGen officer visited rural areas of Hau Giang
province in March and noticed chickens strolling in and out of
farmers' homes -- locations that were part of a model rural
development project.


6. (U) Eating habits and poultry prices reflect Vietnam's
complacency towards avian influenza. Even white-collar workers
seem oblivious to the danger of eating chicken and, in particular,
towards eggs. At Quan An Ngon Restaurant ("Tasty Restaurant"),a
popular local spot for office workers and professionals, people
eat chicken dishes with little concern. Restaurateurs who, during
the first outbreak of avian influenza in December 2003, had
removed eggs from the menu as a precaution, have not halted the
service of chicken or eggs this time around. Poultry, especially
popular during holiday festivals in Vietnam, rose to VND 40,000-
50,000 (approximately USD 2.53 to 3.16)/kg in anticipation of the
April 30th celebration of Vietnam's unification, reported Thanh
Nien. These price levels are well above poultry prices in
December and the second week of January, VND 27,300 (approximately
USD 1.73)/kg and VND 25,500 (approximately USD 1.63)/kg,
respectively (reftel). Since the April 30 holiday, prices have
dipped slightly, but continue to move upward. The current retail
price of slaughtered whole chicken is about VND 30,000-32,000
(approximately USD 1.89 to USD 2.02)/kilogram. The fast-food
restaurant Lotteria is buying chicken at VND 32,000 (approximately
USD 2.02)/kilogram or higher. Wholesale supplier Metro is
promoting chicken in its weekly sales flyer at VND 25,000
(approximately USD 1.58)/kilogram, perhaps to regain consumer
confidence in chicken. While sales to large restaurants and
hotels remain steady, sales to supermarkets have been accompanied
by a "buy-back guarantee" if the supermarket is unable to sell the
chicken after several weeks.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Avian influenza will continue to pose a danger
to Vietnam. What is most alarming right now is the complacency
with which the average Vietnamese person perceives the danger of
the virus, ignoring the most basic recommended precautions with
respect to diet and economic activity. In order to help modify
this behavior, the Vietnamese media needs to renew its consistency
and vigilance in reporting the continued danger of the virus, as
it initially did in December 2004. END COMMENT.

WINNICK


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