549/ISLAMIC COALITION CANDIDATE PREDICTS "HARD COMPETITION"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000375

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL IZ
SUBJECT: 549/ISLAMIC COALITION CANDIDATE PREDICTS "HARD COMPETITION"
WITH UIA/555 IN KARBALA

REF: HILLAH 0364, HILLAH 0354

CLASSIFIED BY: ALFRED FONTENEAU, REGIONAL COORDINATOR, REO,
AL-HILLAH, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



CLASSIFIED BY: ALFRED FONTENEAU, REGIONAL COORDINATOR, REO,
AL-HILLAH, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The number two candidate in Karbala on the
Islamic Coalition list (ballot number 549),Ibrahim Ali Abbas
Al-Mutayri, predicted that the electoral contest for Karbala's
six seats in the new National Assembly would feature "hard
competition" between the Islamic Coalition and the United Iraqi
Alliance (UIA, ballot number 555). He asserted that the fight
for seats between the two Shi'a lists in Karbala was essentially
for swing voters, explaining that each list has its faithful
followers, so it is the votes of "those in between" that each
list has been courting in the run up to the December 15 election.


2. (SBU) Al-Mutayri (also known as Hajj Al-Ibrahim),a current
member of the Transitional National Assembly from the UIA, met
with the South Central Regional Coordinator and REO Hillah staff
on December 8. The Islamic Coalition is a collection of
approximately a half dozen Shi'a Islamist political parties,
most or all of whom were part of UIA in the January election.
Al-Mutayri is the Secretary General of his party, the Islamic
Labor Organization, which has the Karbala-based cleric Grand
Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi Al-Modarassi as its spiritual leader.
The 549 is running lists in eleven provinces, including Karbala.

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MUTAYRI SEES 555 AS MAIN RIVAL; SEEKS NON-INTEFERENCE FROM HAWZA
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3. (SBU) When asked for a prediction on the contest for
Karbala's six seats, Al-Mutayri would not give numbers, but
stated that there are many lists and that there will be "hard
competition" between 549 and 555. He described the other lists
as "weaker." Regarding the constituency of the 549 in
comparison to that of the 555, Al-Mutayri maintained that his
coalition had its followers, the UIA had its own followers, and
"so we fight over those in between," which is to say, the
undecided voter. Al-Mutayri disclosed that the Islamic
Coalition would be willing to work with other coalition lists
after the election if it was beneficial to his group.


4. (C) The Regional Coordinator asked Al-Mutayri about his
understanding of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani's December 3
statement, in which Sistani expressed support for the major
Islamic coalitions, which many Shi'a took as an endorsement of
the UIA (NOTE: This interview took place prior to Sistani's
December 11 statement, in which he appeared to back away from
the position he took on December 3. Reftels. END NOTE.)
Al-Mutayri responded that all the Hawzas urge the people to
vote. Presumably in reference to Sistani and his senior
clerics, Al-Mutayri avowed that all Iraqis would get their
rights if the Hawza did not interfere, and "so we ask our
brothers in Najaf not to interfere." He noted that there was no
Sistani fatwa supporting the UIA.

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CANDIDATE EXPRESSES CONCERNS OVER IECI'S IMPARTIALITY
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5. (C) Al-Mutaryi told REO staff that his coalition feared
widespread cheating by IECI staff (Independent Electoral
Commission of Iraq). He declared that the polling centers are
not independent but are run by the political parties.
Al-Mutayri complained about his group's posters being torn down
by competing parties (NOTE: This is a very common complaint
among parties in the South Central region. END NOTE). He also
complained that "those in power" -- a likely reference to SCIRI
(Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq),the Badr
Organization and followers of Moqtada Al-Sadr -- had taken over
Iraqi security services to serve their own ends.


6. (U) Al-Mutayri said voters view the lack of public services,
including electricity and water, and the reconstruction of
streets and other items, as key problems. He described the lack
of aerial spraying for a date palm parasite as another problem
currently facing Iraqis, one that could be addressed with "just
two planes."


7. (C) At one point in the discussion, Al-Mutayri urged REO
staff not to mistake the Wahhabi or "terrorist way" for genuine
Islam. Of the terrorists, he said, "they make a dirty image for
Islam."


8. (C) COMMENT: In the devoutly Shi'a holy city of Karbala,
the Islamic Coalition list is the main competitor to the United
Iraqi Alliance, which is described by both its supporters and
detractors as the strongest coalition in Karbala and the South
Central region in general. The 549 list will likely capture at
least one of Karbala's six seats, with the UIA winning as many
as three. Allegations of electoral fraud are typically made by
secular parties. Al-Mutayri's expression of concern indicates
that it is not just secular competitors to the UIA that fear its
pervasive influence in South Central Iraq. END COMMENT.
FONTENEAU