KARBALA UIA/555 CANDIDATE CONFIDENT OF STRONG PERFORMANCE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000366

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL IZ
SUBJECT: KARBALA UIA/555 CANDIDATE CONFIDENT OF STRONG PERFORMANCE IN
ELECTION

REF: HILLAH 0354, HILLAH 0364

CLASSIFIED BY: ALFRED FONTENEAU, REGIONAL COORDINATOR, REO,
AL-HILLAH, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: The number two candidate on the United Iraqi
Alliance list (UIA, ballot number 555) in Karbala, Mouther
Hussein Hassan Al-Hakim, expressed optimism over his coalition's
chances in the December 15 national election, stating, "My list
is in a good position." Al-Hakim, an independent candidate from
the Office of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, explained that
Sistani was not "interfering" in the election or favoring a
particular list, but was pushing voters to participate.
Regarding the issues that Karbala residents want new National
Assembly members to address, Al-Hakim highlighted three areas:
security, public services, and "real democracy." END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Al-Hakim, a current member of the Karbala Provincial
Council, met with the South Central Regional Coordinator and REO
Hillah staff on December 8, and spoke about his candidacy and
his coalition's prospects. When asked how he was chosen to be
the number two UIA candidate in Karbala, Al-Hakim explained that
there are four main constituent groups in the UIA: the Islamic
Dawa party, which has two branches, SCIRI (Supreme Council for
Islamic Revolution in Iraq)/Badr Organization, the Sadrists, and
the independents. He noted that he is part of the last group,
and that the coalition had arranged the "priorities" on the
lists.


3. (C) Regarding the restructuring of the UIA since the January
election (when it was a broader coalition),Al-Hakim stated that
some leaders of small political parties have a "different view."
He proclaimed that these leaders believe that they will get
more seats as independents. However, according to Al-Hakim,
they still have a relationship with the UIA.


4. (C) Al-Hakim declared he was "relaxed" about the election
and stated that, "my list is in a good position" when asked how
his coalition would fare in the competition for Karbala's six
seats in the new assembly. He contended that Iraqis understand
the election process, noting that they are "practiced in
democracy," having participated in the January 30 and October 15
votes.


5. (C) The Regional Coordinator asked Al-Hakim about the
confusion among Iraqis over Sistani's December 3 statement, in
which he stated his support for the major Islamic coalitions,
which many took as an endorsement of the UIA (NOTE: This
interview took place prior to Sistani's December 11 statement,
in which he appeared to back away from the position he took on
December 3. Reftels. END NOTE.) Al-Hakim responded that
Sistani was not interfering, but rather was pressing Iraqis to
vote. He added that Sistani does not have a favorite list.


6. (SBU) Al-Hakim indicated that Karbala residents want three
things from their representatives in the new National Assembly:
security, public services, and "real democracy." He added that
his coalition believes in Iraqi unity, women's rights, and
improved relations with Iraq's neighbors and the international
community, noting that he and his colleagues do not want to be
"closed off from the outside world."


7. (SBU) Al-Hakim argued that the six seats allotted to Karbala
in the new National Assembly are insufficient given the
province's population. (NOTE: The IECI allocated seats on the
number of Public Distribution System ration cards in each
province, which is in turn based on population. END NOTE).
Al-Hakim maintained that the population count for Karbala was
artificially low because the last census was performed during
Saddam Hussein's reign. He stated that during Saddam's time,
some people were unwilling to give their names during the census
because they believed it would get them called for service in
the Army. In addition, according to Al-Hakim, Saddam's
government purposely used a lower figure for Karbala's
population so that the province would receive fewer public
services, due to the fact that residents stood against Saddam.


8. (SBU) While discussing the new Iraqi Constitution, Al-Hakim
described human rights as a "holy issue" and noted that
"democracy is a holy thing." When asked if he foresaw changes
to the constitution in the new National Assembly, Al-Hakim
responded that he expected some changes -- and that fifty
articles remain for the new National Assembly to discuss -- but
he hoped that these would not impact the core of the
constitution, which he said is people's freedom.


9. (SBU) BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION: Mouther Hussein Hassan
Al-Hakim is in his 40s or 50s. He served as Karbala Provincial
Governor for three to four weeks under the CPA in 2003 or 2004.
Al-Hakim is an independent candidate from the Office of Sistani.
He is a current member of Karbala Provincial Council (PC) and
the head of the PC's Reconstruction Committee, but is not active
in either. He is considered pious and is a descendant of
Mohammed, although he did not wear a black turban, indicating
descent from the prophet, during his meeting with REO staff. He
spends some of his time working in the twin shrines in downtown
Karbala, which are Sistani-affiliated.

10. (C) COMMENT: As the number two for the UIA -- the largest
and best known Shi'a Islamist coalition list -- in one of the
most devoutly religious provinces in Iraq, Al-Hakim is virtually
assured of a seat in the new National Assembly. His comment
about small parties that have split away from the UIA since the
January election maintaining links to the UIA suggests
opportunities for post-election coalition building during
negotiations over key positions in the new government. END
COMMENT.
FONTENEAU