AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH CONSERVATIVE PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000920

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL EU FI TU
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH CONSERVATIVE PARTY
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NIINISTO


Classified By: PolChief Greg Thome, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Conservative Party presidential candidate
Sauli Niinisto provided us a candid summary of his views on
the upcoming campaign and on key issues of interest to the
United States. Domestically, he criticized President
Halonen for benefiting from Finland's decade of economic
and foreign policy success, while failing to address
difficult issues of the future. On international issues,
Niinisto plans to make security and defense a central
component of his campaign. Niinisto emphasized that
Finland's security will always depend on a strong European
commitment to the trans-Atlantic Alliance, although Finnish
public opinion still favors ESDI participation ahead of
NATO membership. While he agreed that Russian perceptions
of insecurity have intensified as a result of EU
enlargement and China's emergence, he was noncommittal in
response to the Ambassador's warnings regarding the China
arms embargo, saying only that Finland will not take a
leadership role on the issue. Niinisto supported Turkey's
EU membership, but suggested it may have to be phased in
through a well-defined "partnership period." If elected,
Niinisto would be a strong supporter of U.S. policy in
general terms and a reliable partner within the EU on
security and other issues. However, both he and we must
remain realistic about his slim chances of victory against
a very popular incumbent. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The Ambassador hosted National Conservative
Coalition Party (Cons) presidential Sauli Niinisto and
Member of Parliament Jari Vilen for lunch on August 22.
DCM and PolChief also attended. With incumbent President
Tarja Halonen (Social Democrats) and Prime Minister Matti
Vanhanen (Center Party) as his principal rivals, Niinisto's
Conservatives face an uphill battle in the January 2006
contest. (A Finland Gallup poll published August 22
showed that if elections were held today, Halonen would
take 58 percent, Niinisto 19, and Vanhanen 17 -- with
Niinisto pulling ahead of Vanhanen for the first time.)
Nevertheless, Niinisto -- a former finance
minister, deputy prime minister and currently Vice
President of the European Investment Bank -- is a
charismatic and thoughtful candidate and a well regarded
choice to represent the third-largest of Finland's "big
three" political parties.

Halonen: Resting on Past Successes
--------------

3. (SBU) As he has done in public, Niinisto criticized his
chief rivals for enjoying their terms in office and basking
in the glow of Finland's recent period of economic and
diplomatic success, while failing to address looming
threats to the country's economic stability. Finland
suffers from an aging population and a dwindling tax base,
Niinisto noted, and neither President Halonen nor the
Vanhanen government has had the courage to convince Finns
that small changes to Finland's welfare state model as well
as an influx of skilled immigrants are crucial to
maintaining social and economic success. Regarding Halonen
-- who, at this early stage maintains a significant lead in
the polls -- Niinisto noted that, "she has made no mistakes
because she had done nothing." Nevertheless, he
acknowledged that she in enormously popular -- particularly
among women voters who remain enthusiastic about Finland's
first female president -- and that he will have to reach
out to voters across the gender gap if he is to be
successful. Niinisto also expressed frustration in getting
the president and prime minister to engage in a campaign,
noting that, in their incumbent positions, the calendar
worked to their advantage.

Finnish Security: The Top Concern
--------------

4. (C) Niinisto stated frankly that Finnish (and, to a
lesser extent, European) security will be a key component
in his campaign. He supported the concept of greater
Finnish participation in the European Security and Defense
Initiative (ESDI),noting that Europeans in general feel
that Europe must take greater responsibility for its own
security. However, he noted his support for Finland's
significant role in NATO activities and emphasized that his
vision for Finnish involvement in an evolving ESDI would in
no way diminish its support for and participation in NATO
activities both inside and outside the NATO area. When
pushed, Niinisto espoused a cautious line on actual NATO
membership, noting that currently ESDI is palatable to
Finnish voters and that, as a candidate, he would have to
stress the importance of putting a European defense
mechanism first. However, he agreed with the Ambassador
that public opinion could be changed if the right leader
were to lead the way, and he emphasized that Europe's
security remains heavily based on a strong trans-Atlantic
alliance. Niinisto further noted that his own unequivocal
stance on European security would set him apart from both
Halonen and Vanhanen, neither of whom has staked out a
clear position on ESDI or NATO.


5. (C) Niinisto also expressed some lingering concerns
about broader security issues. He noted that despite an
upswing in its economy, Russia continues to suffer a sense
of insecurity. To the extent possible, European efforts to
reassure Russia are in Europe's own security interest, he
said, and Finland remains well-placed to help foster better
relations. Niinisto marveled at the growth of China as a
economic power, but added that this also exacerbates
Russian insecurity. The Ambassador took the opportunity to
make crystal clear to Niinisto the importance the U.S.
places on maintaining the arms embargo against China.
In response, Niinisto was largely non-committal. He took
our views on board and agreed that China's human rights
record left much to be desired, but noted that "Finland will
not be a playmaker" on the issue.

Turkey and the EU
--------------

6. (C) Regarding further EU enlargement, Niinisto remained
enthusiastic. Breaking somewhat from his party's usual
line, Niinisto offered his own opinion that Turkey's
membership in the EU is of tremendous importance to
European security. However, he cautioned, Turkey's road is
certain to be difficult. Following the eventual accession
of Romania, Bulgaria and perhaps Croatia, some have
suggested that all future candidates be subject to
referendum -- a proposal he said is gaining currency
throughout Europe following the "non" votes in France and
Holland. Niinisto feared that this concept would likely be
popular in Finland, where opposition to Turkish membership
is high. Despite his own views in favor of Turkish
membership, Niinisto also stated that Europe is not yet
ready -- politically or structurally -- to "absorb that
large mass that is Turkey." In response, he advocated an
eventual "phasing in" process that would involve a well-
defined set of conditions and perhaps a lengthy time
period. Regardless of the mechanism, he added, Europe
needs to find a way to allay public opinion fears about
Turkey while still sending a message to the Turks that "you
are part of Europe."

Comment
--------------

7. (C) Were he to be elected president in January, Niinisto
would prove a strong supporter of both enhanced European
security capability and a trans-Atlantic security
partnership. He would also likely be more supportive of
U.S. policy than President Halonen. Occasional differences
over nuance (some reported here) would certainly arise, and
there is little reason to expect that Niinisto could effect
(or would wish to effect) dramatic departures from
Finland's typically pragmatic and forthcoming approach to
shared security and trans-Atlantic cooperation. That said,
both Niinisto and we are realistic about his chances for
victory, at least at this early stage of the campaign.
President Tarja Halonen has a significant lead in current
opinion polls, and barring any major missteps will likely
win. Nevertheless, we look to Niinisto to run the type of
campaign that will permit his party to continue working
with Halonen and with the current Center Party government,
while at the same time raising legitimate, positive debate
on issues of concern to the United States.
MACK