A KINDER, GENTLER ZANU-PF? NOT LIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000562

SIPDIS

AF FOR DAS T. WOODS
AF/S FOR B. NEULING
OVP FOR NULAND
NSC FOR DNSA ABRAMS, SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: A KINDER, GENTLER ZANU-PF? NOT LIKELY

REF: A. HARARE 83 AND PREVIOUS


B. 04 HARARE 2035

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d


1. (C) SUMMARY: Speculation that an overwhelming ZANU-PF win
in the Parliamentary elections, coupled with the recent party
purges (ref A),would lead ZANU-PF to moderate its stance
toward the opposition so far appears unfounded. Mugabe's
public portrayal of the MDC has returned to a more vitriolic
tone and the government-controlled press has stepped up
articles highlighting purported MDC violence and Morgan
Tsvangirai's ineffectiveness. Mugabe has stated publicly

SIPDIS
that repressive legislation will remain in place. The GOZ
appears to be moving to take over or close down the Zimbabwe
Congress of Trade Unions, which has been critical of the
government. Violence against MDC supporters appears to be on
the upswing, and a GOZ-appointed committee of auditors just
released a report recommending that the MDC-led city council
of Mutare be dissolved. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Rhetoric Heating Up Against Opposition
--------------


2. (U) In contrast with the immediate pre-election period,
when Mugabe moderated his rhetoric, he is reverting to
portraying the MDC as a party of violence. At a press
conference on April 2, Mugabe stated that the MDC must accept
defeat in the parliamentary elections. Although in his
post-election press conference he complimented the MDC for
refraining from violence on the day of the election, saying
that MDC,s peaceful conduct should form the &basis8 for
future interactions between the two parties, Mugabe
nonetheless reacted intemperately to a question on how the
GOZ would respond to MDC plans to put pressure on the
Government for a reversal of the elections. Mugabe said
&mass action is not the prerogative of one side,8 and would
be met with a massive response. He said &peaceful
demonstrations are welcome8 but &history has shown us that
they (MDC) are a very violent people.8


3. (U) Emphasizing Mugabe,s remarks about MDC,s violence,
the government-controlled Herald newspaper has run several
articles about MDC supporters allegedly going on a &violent
rampage8 on April 4 following an &illegal demonstration8
in Harare during which MDC supporters were reportedly handing
out &Reject Fraud8 flyers. The Public Affairs Section,
located in the area where the demonstrations were held,
reports that they were peaceful demonstrations. The latest
Herald article, on April 7, accused the MDC of using the
flyers to create a panic over fuel and food shortages that
did not exist. (COMMENT: the shortages do exist.) On April
6, the Herald ran a front-page headline &Tsvangirai Must Go:
UK,8 quoting an article in the UK Independent newspaper
stating that Tsvangirai had proved himself an ineffectual
leader. (The article in the Independent actually stated only
that Tsvangirai &is expected to face calls to step down.8)
The Herald has subsequently run cartoons depicting Tony Blair
telling Tsvangirai &Your time,s up! Get out!!8

--------------
Repressive Legislation Remains in Place
--------------


4. (U) In an interview with the South African Broadcasting
Corporation, Mugabe said that the much criticized Access to
Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) would not
be repealed. To date, the GOZ has closed four newspapers and
arrested several journalists under AIPPA. Two British
journalists are currently facing charges under AIPPA for
practicing journalism without accreditation after being
arrested while one was taking a photograph near a polling
station during the March 31 elections. The journalists face
two years in prison if convicted.

--------------
Police Actions Against MDC
--------------


5. (SBU) Reportedly sought for arrest in connection with
demonstrations by MDC youth in downtown Harare earlier in the
week, MDC Youth Chairman Nelson Chamisa turned himself in to
police on April 7. He has been charged with inciting public
violence. He was released on bail on April 9. The official
media has reported the arrests of 18 MDC supporters in
connection with the demonstrations.

--------------
Siege of Cities Continues
--------------


6. (U) Continuing a pattern of harassment against MDC-led
mayors and city councils (ref B),the Herald reported on
April 6 the release of a report by a committee of auditors
appointed by the GOZ to investigate allegations of
mismanagement and corruption by the MDC-dominated Mutare city
council. According to the Herald, the committee recommended
suspension of the full council and further investigation into
the allegations.

--------------
Unions Under Attack?
--------------



7. (C) Four unions that form part of the Zimbabwe Congress of
Trade Unions (ZCTU) on April 6 called for a change of
leadership based on allegations of financial misappropriation
and objections to ZCTU President Lovemore Matombo and 1st
Vice President Lucia Matibenga not holding active jobs.
Raymond Majongwe, Chairperson of Progressive Teachers Union
of Zimbabwe and a member of the ZCTU General Council, told us
April 8 that he believes that the complaints are driven by
ZANU-PF aligned members of the four unions and that this is a
government plot to cripple the organization. By law, the
Labor Minister can investigate claims of financial
impropriety. The AFL-CIO,s Solidarity Center representative
told us he believes that the government will use the internal
conflict as a pretext to force ZCTU to hold new elections and
potentially bar particular individuals from holding office.

--------------
Violence Reportedly on the Upswing
--------------



8. (C) In contrast with the period of relatively less
violence before the elections, there are a growing number of
reports in the independent media and by the MDC of violence
by ZANU-PF supporters against MDC supporters. Most commonly
the reports are of actions against relatively isolated
supporters in rural areas where ZANU-PF is in the majority.
(Morgan Tsvangirai told us last week that ZANU-PF is still
afraid to use force in areas where it knows it is in a
minority.) Zim Online reported on April 7 that 45 MDC
supporters in Gwanda were beaten and told they would no
longer be allowed to buy grain from the Grain Marketing
Board. The MDC reported that, in one incident in Insiza
April 3, a police officer arrested supporters of the ZANU-PF
candidate for attacking MDC supporters; however, when they
arrived at the police station, the member in charge released
them. On April 10, the Zimbabwe Standard reported that
ZANU-PF supporters burned down the house of the MDC campaign
manager for Lupane. The MDC has reported several other
attacks and of property being burned. Human Rights NGOs told
us that they are still trying to confirm and to quantify the
reported escalation in violence. The British Embassy told us
that one of their election-related contacts from a rural area
was forced to flee to Harare and is in hiding after being
accused of being a British &spy8 for talking to the Embassy.


9. (C) COMMENT: ZANU-PF's tough posture in the wake of its
landslide "victory" reflects the party leadership's
confidence in regional acquiescence to the electoral results,
its insecurity toward its domestic public, and its
traditional methods, as well as Mugabe,s oft-declared
disdain for and determination to eliminate all forms of
democratic dissent. We expect the ruling party to press
ahead quickly with constitutional amendments but to avoid any
political or economic reforms that might signal a kinder,
gentler face to its domestic critics, even if it tries to
sell a softer image to the international community in an
effort to secure desperately needed economic support.
Dell