MDC TAKES EARLY URBAN LEAD BUT ALLEGES FRAUD;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000492

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015
TAGS: ZI PGOV MDC
SUBJECT: MDC TAKES EARLY URBAN LEAD BUT ALLEGES FRAUD;
CONSIDERS OPTIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell
Reason 1.4(b)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Summary: Early election returns show that the MDC
has won 28 of the first 32 announced seats. However, almost
all of these wins were in urban areas, taking all 7 seats in
Bulawayo and 16 of 17 announced in Harare. Despite the early
official results, MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai was
downbeat in both his discussion with the Ambassador and in
his mid-morning press conference, alleging fraud and implying
that ZANU-PF had manipulated the vote in rural areas. He
predicted a "status quo" result when all of the seats are
counted. Others predict that the MDC may lose its
constitutional blocking minority in Parliament.


2. (C) Tsvangirai publicly called on the people of Zimbabwe
to "defend their vote," but stopped short of calling for mass
action. In their private conversation, the Ambassador made
clear that Washington would have to determine whether and how
the U.S. could support an eventual civil disobedience
campaign. Turnout figures are incomplete, but appear to be
less than 40 percent and marked by high levels of rejected
voters, 10 percent nationwide, which appears to have been a
deliberate ZANU-PF tactic to deny MDC votes. Embassy and
independent observers noted other instances of intimidation
and potential fraud, especially in rural areas, that support
Tsvangirai's claims. End Summary.

SIPDIS

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CLEAR URBAN VICTORIES FOR THE MDC...
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3. (SBU) As of noon local time, the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission has called 28 of 32 early races in favor of MDC
candidates. The MDC took all 7 seats in Bulawayo, with their
candidates averaging around 80 percent of the vote. In
Harare, the MDC took 16 of 18 seats. One seat,
Tafara-Mabvuku, is still pending, while ZANU-PF candidate
Hubert Nyanhongo upset MDC candidate James Mushonga in Harare
South by about 800 votes out of over 22,000 cast. Contests
were generally tighter in Harare than Bulawayo, with several
ZANU-PF candidates claiming over a third of the vote. MDC
candidates also have won the urban districts of Mutare
Central, Mutare North, and Masvingo Central. The other three
announced ZANU-PF victories are in largely rural
constituencies.

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...BUT TSVANGIRAI DOWNCAST
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4. (C) MDC head Morgan Tsvangirai called the Ambassador
Friday morning to discuss early election results and the
party's next steps. A downcast Tsvangirai said despite the
promising early results, the trend appeared to be toward the
status quo. He said the MDC had expected to do well in the
urban constituencies. However, early returns from Masvingo
seemed to indicate that the party had failed to achieve the
hoped for breakthrough in that province. He said fraud was
the key factor. In Manyame constituency in Mashonaland West,
for instance, the original Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC)
voter count yesterday had 14,812 voters. However, today's
official results had over 23,000 voters, with the seat going
to ZANU-PF.


5. (C) Tsvangirai said there were no results as yet from
the other principal battleground, Midlands province, but if
the same trend were seen there, it would be very difficult
for the MDC to get to its goal of 61 seats, a majority of the
contested seats. Tsvangirai told the Ambassador that he
hoped to build momentum among MDC supporters to challenge the
official results. The Ambassador asked if Tsvangirai judged
a civil disobedience campaign could succeed. A seemingly
dispirited Tsvangirai responded that he was unsure but that
the MDC needed to try. When asked if the U.S. would support
such a campaign, the Ambassador repeated his message of
Wednesday night: he could make no commitments without
Washington's approval.

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TSVANGIRAI"S PRESS CONFERENCE

SIPDIS
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6. (SBU) At 1100 local time, Tsvangirai held a press
conference at MDC Headquarters in Harare and publicly accused
the GOZ and the ZANU-PF party of stealing the elections. He
noted the discrepancies in Manyame and said the MDC had clear
evidence of similar fraud in many constituencies, especially
rural ones. He cited a number of constituencies that ZANU-PF
had "stolen:" namely Hwedwa, Beitbridge, Chimanimani,
Chipenge North, and Chegutu. Tsvangirai rejected criticism
of MDC's decision to participate in an unequal election,
saying it had been the "people's choice" that MDC run. He
noted the high percentage of rejected voters nationwide and
called on the people of Zimbabwe to "defend their vote."
However, he declined to go as far as to call for mass action,
saying simply that he had a "plan," and that it would not be
the failed legal route the MDC had followed after the 2000
elections.

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HIGH LEVELS OF REJECTED VOTERS; SOME INTIMIDATION
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7. (SBU) Although figures are incomplete, turnout
nationwide appears to have been low. The most recent figures
for 6 available provinces show turnout at 39 percent with
Bulawayo at just 31 percent. This low turnout appears to be
partly a reflection of an inflated voter roll. However, it
also reflects the high percentage of rejected voters, which
the ZEC acknowledged averaged 10 percent nationwide. ZESN,
Embassy and EU observers noted that in some areas, MDC
strongholds and close seats, the rejection rate was 20 to 25
percent. Most voters were rejected because, due to
redistricting, they had tried to vote in the wrong
constituency and no longer appeared on the voter rolls.
These individuals were unable to cast a ballot.


8. (SBU) Most Embassy and ZESN observers said polling
appeared to be calm and orderly. However, there has been a
growing number of reported cases of intimidation at or around
polling stations the day after the election:

--MDC Acting Elections Director Lucia Matibenga said there
were instances of MDC polling agents being harassed, and that
the party was looking into claims of violence in rural areas.

--A Canadian observer said he saw men who appeared to be
police officers taking names of voters outside a station in
Zvimba (Mashonaland West).

--In Kadoma, Embassy observers noted that three stations had
tables outside the 100 meter perimeter manned by unidentified
individuals who asked voters for their names and ID numbers
and had papers with constituents' names. Polling officials
said the tables were outside their jurisdiction.

--At a station in Manicaland, Embassy observers noted a stack
of mealie meal about 100 meters from the polling station.
They were told that the Grain Marketing Board was
distributing it, but while no official from the Board was
present, the presiding election official repeatedly walked
back and forth to the stack.

--In Mt. Darwin South, Embassy observers spoke with the local
MDC candidate, who told them that ZANU-PF incumbent-and
well-known thug-Saviour Kasukwere had been intimidating
voters, and had threatened kombi drivers into not
transporting MDC polling agents into the field. Embassy
observers also saw a local headman, who also happened to be
the ZANU-PF polling agent, being given a copy of the voter
roll.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) The MDC's growing momentum and the Zimbabwean
people's yearning for change may have been thwarted yet
again. That said, we are skeptical that Tsvangirai's Plan B
will have much resonance given a "status quo" result. We
have argued all along that given the prevailing conditions,
such a result is a victory for the MDC. Instead of crumbling
under ZANU-PF's onslaught of the past five years, and despite
the highly uneven electoral playing field, the party will
have held its ground. Moreover, whether the MDC gets 51 or
61 seats doesn't alter the fundamental post-election reality.
They will have prevented a two-thirds ZANU-PF majority and
set the table for renewed intra-party talks on the
Constitution. A more dire prediction, from the UK Embassy,
is that the MDC will end up with fewer than 51 seats and will
lose its ability to block constitutional change. In any
event, we will need to put the pressure on President Mugabe
to recognize the MDC as a legitimate and permanent part of
Zimbabwe's political landscape and to negotiate accordingly.
Dell