MIDLANDS GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000347

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR BNEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVELLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2009
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: MIDLANDS GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS

Classified By: Charge' d'Affaires, a.i. for reason 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: On February 22, ZANU-PF Midlands Governor
Cephas Msipa told the Ambassador that this year,s elections
would be less violent than past elections. He predicted the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) would retain
only one or two of its five seats in the province.
Responding to the Governor,s question about Zimbabwe,s
classification as an &outpost of tyranny8, the Ambassador
said that given its past of an independent judiciary and
racial tolerance, Zimbabwe should aim for the highest
standards. Msipa said Zimbabwe had always been a one-party
state and defended the GOZ noting the situation today was in
fact better than it had ever been before. End Summary.

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ELECTIONS
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2. (C) Governor Msipa said the ruling ZANU-PF party was
serious about conducting a non-violent election. He cited
the recent arrests of violent ZANU-PF youths as proof. He
also predicted that ZANU-PF would win all but one or two of
Midlands, 16 parliamentary seats. (N.B. The opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) currently holds five
Parliament seats in Midlands). He argues that with a
one-party state again after the elections, the government
would again feel secure and could concentrate on other
issues. The Ambassador countered that the problem was the
GOZ,s unwillingness to accept a competitive political
environment.


3. (C) The Ambassador asked Msipa why he was so confident
that ZANU-PF would win big in the province. Msipa responded
that Midlands was a largely rural area and that it was
ZANU-PF that was feeding the people in rural areas.
Moreover, ZANU-PF had close ties to local chiefs, whose
position it had done much to improve, and the chiefs carried
great influence with rural voters. The MDC, by contrast, had
no message for rural people and he would be surprised if they
even tried to campaign in those areas. The Ambassador noted
that ZANU-PF also had many advantages as the ruling party.
Msipa conceded the point, admitting that the electoral
playing field was not level.


4. (C) Msipa raised the Secretary,s criticism of Zimbabwe as
an outpost of tyranny. He said he thought Zimbabwe,s
political climate was better than that of most African
countries. The Ambassador responded that Zimbabwe should
hold itself to a higher standard than other African states.
POSA, AIPPA, and the NGO Bill stood in stark contrast to
Zimbabwe,s history of an outstanding judiciary and racial
tolerance. Msipa disagreed, claiming that Zimbabwe was freer
today than in the 1980s, when ethnic tension between the
Shona and Ndebele dominated the nations politics. He added
that the West was actually undermining the MDC with its
support since most Zimbabweans were suspicious of the West,s
motives.

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GENERAL CONDITIONS
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5. (C) Governor Msipa said Midlands had gone 8 weeks without
rain. He estimated that nearly 500,000 people in his
province would require food assistance. Farmers with no
crops of their own were buying 100 20kg bags of maize meal
each day from his farm. However, the Grain Marketing Board
(GMB) had stocks of grain and would be providing assistance
to the province. The Ambassador noted that the U.S. stood
ready to assist with food aid pending permission from the
GOZ. Msipa replied that he would approve it immediately if
he had the power to do so.


6. (C) Msipa blamed Zimbabwe,s current economic ills on
Western sanctions. The Ambassador responded that this was a
convenient excuse, but in fact bad economic policy had led to
Zimbabwe,s dramatic decline.
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COMMENT
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7. (C) A relatively independent ZANU-PF politician, Governor
Msipa was uncharacteristically frank about the need for food
assistance. No other ZANU-PF interlocutor has been as
forthcoming about the need for food assistance. Most have
denied there is any problem at all. A handful have gone so
far as to admit a problem but have argued that the GOZ has
the resources to address it. Frankly, we doubt it. Recent
trips by the Ambassador and other Embassy officials to most
areas of the country have revealed stunted crops with the
April harvest only weeks away.


8. (C) BIOGRAPHIC NOTE: Msipa is part Shona and part Ndebele.
In 1981, he became Deputy Minister of Manpower Planning and
then Minister of Water Resources and Development. From
1985-1995, he headed several parastatals including the GMB
and the Cotton Marketing Board. In 1995, he returned to
government as the Minister for Indigenization. In 2000, he
was appointed Governor of Midlands. He has two sons in the
U.S., one studying at Tufts University and the other managing
the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe,s (RBZ) Homelink program,
through which the Zimbabwean diaspora can send remittances
home to relatives, but in hard currency, through official
channels, and converted to zimdollars at the GOZ,s bogus
official rate.
SCHULTZ