ZANU-PF CONFERENCE ATTACKS PARTY/GOZ OFFICIALS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001681

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
AFR/SA FOR E. LOKEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EAGR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF CONFERENCE ATTACKS PARTY/GOZ OFFICIALS,
PROFITEERS, NGOS, MDC, UN

REF: (A) HARARE 1680 (B) HARARE 1679 (C) HARARE 1674
(D) HARARE 1663

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (U) At the ZANU-PF annual national conference held in
Esigodini December 9-10, President Mugabe conceded
significant problems in agrarian reform, which he attributed
in part to misallocation among ruling party officials and
poor planning by the government. The party reportedly
adopted a report that recommended "stern" (but yet
unspecified) action against NGOs and civic groups allied to
the opposition. Mugabe also vilified UN Under Secretary for
Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Jan
Egeland for expressions of concern about Zimbabwe's
humanitarian situation in the wake of his recent visit to
Zimbabwe (ref D). In a departure from custom, the Embassy
was not invited to attend the conference's open sessions.
End summary.

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Officials to Blame for Ag Problems
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2. (U) According to press reports, Mugabe told the
conference on December 9 that debate over problems with the
country's agrarian reform was a central focus for the party.
Problems included under-utilization of land by land reform
beneficiaries, many of them party elites with multiple farms.
He also charged party and government officials with
colluding to support white farmers who were unwilling to give
way to landless blacks. Citing "serious shortcomings in
government planning", Mugabe blamed GOZ officials for
inadequate agricultural inputs and a lack of technical
support for farmers. Acknowledging "corruption,
irregularities, and favoritism" in the distribution of land,
he added that his office would now be in charge of all
distribution.

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Protecting Against Profiteers
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3. (U) Addressing the economy more broadly, Mugabe bemoaned
a wide gap between party resolutions and implementation.
According to the state media, in an address to the Central
Committee at the conference, Mugabe blasted party members,
"including some of our leaders", for involvement in black
market and illicit foreign currency dealings and pledged that
they would be dealt with. He further blamed the
manufacturing sector for "insensitive price increases" that
fueled inflation and promised to "protect the people against
profiteering" by regulating prices of essential commodities.
(Comment: His pledge undermines business confidence
engendered by Finance Minister Murerwa's recent undertaking
to lift price controls, a measure that so far has been
largely implemented. End comment.)

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Anti-NGO, Anti-Opposition Diatribe
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4. (U) On December 10, the conference reportedly adopted a
Central Committee report that recommended action against NGOs
perceived as allied to the opposition. According to press
reporting, the Central Committee report stated that "the
opposition is grouped in the form of NGOs and civic groups,
all sponsored by the United Kingdom, the United States, and
the European Union. Stern action shall be taken against
them." The report did not specify what action would be
taken. An additional resolution urged the GOZ to follow
through with plans to seize the passports of people "who go
around demonizing the country" (ref B). According to the
GOZ-controlled Herald's special insert on the conference, the
President devoted considerable rhetoric to familiar
characterizations of the MDC as British lackeys, and
highlighted MDC infighting and ineffectiveness in the Senate
elections.

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Vitriol for Egeland
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5. (U) Mugabe reserved his most vitriolic attacks for
Egeland. At the conference's opening session, he claimed
that Egeland had voiced solidarity with "the fight we were
waging" during his visit before warning publicly about the
humanitarian crisis's severity and later saying "nasty things
about us." Casting Egeland as a "damn hypocrite and a liar",
Mugabe said he no longer trusted the UN Secretary-General's
office and would tell SYG Annan "not to send men or women who
are not his own but the agents of the British." According to
a party statement released December 10, the conference
adopted a resolution urging the goverment "to re-think its
position on entertaining any future UN envoys sent into the
country as clandestine and insidious agents of the British
and other Western countries in pursuance of their hidden
agenda of regime change in Zimbabwe."

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Comment
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6. (C) Mugabe and his party's lashing out at contrived
arch-villains - the MDC, NGOs, the private sector and, the
most recent additions, UN envoys - is vintage posturing that
has become ritualistic. As long as Mugabe retains his perch
on top, however, it poisons the environment for a majority of
Zimbabweans, including many in the ruling party, who do not
want to see GOZ policies further divorce the country from the
international community and the UN.


7. (C) Also familiar is the disingenuous "wea culpa" in
which the leadership acknowledges "mistakes" and a "few bad
apples" with a promise for remedial action. At the party
conference two years ago, Mugabe wagged his finger at
"self-seeking" party principals, warning that nobody was
above the party. Within two months, two central committee
members were in jail, including Mugabe's own relative, Philip
Chiyangwa, for purported economic crimes, and the party
descended into a period of deepenening fear and loathing from
which it has yet to emerge. In that vein, we expect there
will be some economic policy scapegoats identified and
examples made in the coming months, likely triggering a
cabinet reshuffle with some less-than-decisive implications
for post-succession positioning. Bloodletting in any vent is
unlikely to threaten the Mujuru/Zezuru clique's ascendancy.
Moreover, no new combination of cabinet or politburo seating
is likely to yield meaningful political or economic reform as
long as Mugabe remains in place.


8. (C) What may be different about this conference is the
extent to which the party is publicly and privately having to
contend with its own profound economic policy failures. In
large part due to the intensity of public reaction to the
Ambassador's Mutare speech last month, the terms of public
policy debate here have shifted from political to economic.
Long comfortable with a political vocabulary (human rights,
democracy) it had twisted to "nationalistic" advantage with
domestic and regional audiences, Mugabe's party has been
unable to articulate economic themes that resonate with
anybody. Even more significantly, it has no strategy for
avoiding the looming economic wreck, except the now patently
failed and exposed approach of blaming external factors and
desperately seeking a foreign savior to offer easy money.
Unfortunately for Mugabe and Co., Santa Claus seems
disinclined to visit Zimbabwe at this time.
DELL