FOOD INSECURITY INCREASING SLOWLY IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000162

SIPDIS

AID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, CRUMBLY, MUTAMBA,
PETERSEN
DCHA/OFDA FOR PRATT, AUSTRENG, KHANDAGLE,
MENGH ETTI, BORNS, MARX, HALMRAST-SANCHEZ
AFR/SA FOR FLEURET, LOKEN, COPSON,
MACNAIRN
EGAT FOR HOBGOOD, THOMPSON
STATE/AF FOR RAYNOR, NEULING
GABORONE FOR CASHION, BROWN
LILONGWE FOR RUBEY
LUSAKA FOR GUNTHER, NIELSON
MAPUTO FOR POLAND, BLISS, THOMPSON
MASERU FOR AMB LOFTIS
MBABANE FOR KENNA
NAIROBI FOR SMITH, BROWN
PRETORIA FOR, DISKIN, HALE, SINK, REYNOLDS
ROME FOR FODAG FOR GAST

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREL US ZI
SUBJECT: FOOD INSECURITY INCREASING SLOWLY IN
ZIMBABWE, BUT NO CRISIS YET.


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Summary
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1. Although there is evidence of growing food
insecurity, particularly in rural areas where low
food production is a chronic problem, the situation
has not yet reached the level of a crisis. It
appears that most households are still managing to
ward off hunger by employing a variety of coping
mechanisms. However, there is a potential for a food
crisis if supplies to low-production areas do not
improve. The US and other international donors plan
to continue monitoring the situation and providing on-
going targeted food assistance to the extent
possible. If the situation deteriorates
significantly, we will begin negotiating with the GOZ
for approval to increase humanitarian assistance, as
appropriate. End Summary.

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Assessing Food Insecurity
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3. In June 2004, the GOZ suspended large-scale food
distribution in Zimbabwe. It has since refused to
acknowledge the potential for food shortages. The
international press has periodically reported on
problems of food access in Zimbabwe. Those reports
have often accused the GOZ of using food to advance
the ruling party's political agenda. Because the GOZ
refuses to share information about national food
stocks or distribution plans, and has impeded the
international community's efforts to assess the
situation, these press reports have had to be based
on anecdotal reports.


4. Despite the lack of government cooperation,
international agencies and local NGOs that provided
food assistance in Zimbabwe during the past two years
have continued to gather information about food
security. The World Food Programme (WFP),the USAID-
supported Zimbabwe Famine Early Warning System
(FEWSNET),the Consortium for Southern Africa Food
Security Emergency (C-SAFE),USAID Zimbabwe/FFP, and
FOSENET (a consortium of local NGOs) have, to varying
degrees, independently monitored food availability,
prices, and production. USAID initiated a monthly
meeting to pool each agencies' limited information
and create a broader picture of food insecurity in
the country. The information below comes from the
shared findings of these agencies.

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Rural Areas: Food Available but Supplies Limited
-------------- ---


5. Food stocks from households' production have
diminished substantially since the last harvest of
cereals in March 2004. In fact, the months December
- March are typically referred to as Zimbabwe's
"hungry season." Surprisingly, however, the
availability of maize (corn) for sale improved
slightly during the past two months. WFP monitoring
indicated that maize was at least "occasionally
available" throughout most of the country in
November. Reports of "no availability" came only
from parts of Matebeleland (Gwanda and
Bulililimangwe) and one district in Masvingo (Zaka).


6. Improved availability of maize for sale seems at
least partly to be due to the increased release of
maize stocks by the GOZ's Grain Marketing Board (GMB)
between August and November 2004. However, by
November more communities were still obtaining their
food requirements from open (not state controlled)
markets than from the GMB. Field visits indicate
that this is because GMB deliveries are erratic, and
the quantities delivered often do not meet the
demand.


7. December monitoring in farming households in
Matabeleland South, an area of chronic deficit
production, indicated that most households held less
than 50 kg of cereal in stock, and many had less than
10 kg. These quantities suggest that they were
eating hand-to-mouth, acquiring relatively small
quantities as they needed it.


8. Typical of the season, the importance of wild
foods in diets is increasing. Wild green leaves have
been substituting for vegetables that are
traditionally grown in household gardens, because
vegetables do not grow well during the current rainy
season. Wild fruits provide nutritious snacks, and
can even replace bread or porridge for breakfast. In
some areas, households have begun to gather and dry
high-protein mopani worms. The dried worms increase
the quality of household nutrition, and their sale
also provides household income.

-------------- -
Urban Areas: Food Available but Some Shortages
-------------- -


9. Maize meal has been readily available in urban
markets until just the past few weeks, when the
popular and most affordable coarse grade suddenly
became scarce. The more refined grade continues to
be readily available, but at a price that is
prohibitive for most households. The reason for the
shortage of affordable meal is not yet clear. Some
speculate that the GMB has run out of maize stocks
because it cannot import fast enough. Others believe
that the millers are trying to make more money by
withholding some stocks. It is possible that the
shortage reflects a temporary interruption in the
flow of imports and milling due to the holidays.


10. Prices of maize meal, in urban markets, have
only slightly increased during the past months
(mostly because these prices are controlled),but
prices for other food commodities have increased more
significantly. The cost of living for a typical
household in urban areas has steadily increased over
2004, as reported in recent publications from FEWSNET
-- particularly when measured against the GOZ's
minimum wage. The current minimum wage would cover
only 31% of a month's minimum expenditures for basic
needs.


11. Fortunately, data from other sources show that
the picture is not as bleak as it first appears. C-
SAFE, through the USAID-funded Market Assistance
Program (MAP),which sells subsidized sorghum in low-
income neighborhoods of selected cities, regularly
monitors household incomes in the high-density areas
of Bulawayo. In August 2004, C-SAFE conducted
surveys in similar neighborhoods in other urban
centers. Their data show that household incomes in
high-density areas, derived largely from informal
employment, are much higher than minimum wage: 2 to 3
times higher in Bulawayo. The average household
earnings in the surveyed areas do not reach the
estimated minimum monthly expenditure for basic
needs, but they are higher and much closer to the
required minimum expenditure than is the minimum
wage.


12. During recent months, MAP sales have been
consistently lower than they were the same time last
year - probably because until recently maize meal was
readily available. However, household monitoring
shows that most households, even those buying MAP
sorghum, are still eating the more expensive maize
meal (which costs about US$1.00 per 5 kg compared to
about US$0.56 per 5 kg of sorghum). We believe that
households are foregoing other expenses, e.g., they
walk instead of paying for transportation, so that
they can continue to afford some amount of their
preferred maize meal. In coming months C-SAFE will
try to confirm this interpretation through their
monitoring activities as well as to monitor whether
the shortage of the more popular, more affordable
coarse grain maize persists.

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Assistance Activities
--------------


13. In December, WFP's partners distributed a large
ration of cereal (12.5 kg) and beans (5 kg) to the
poorest households in the 31 districts identified as
the most food insecure in the Vulnerability
Assessment conducted after last year's harvest by the
Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) in
cooperation with WFP. This distribution depleted
nearly all of WFP's in-country cereal stocks left
from last year's appeal, which were at risk of
spoilage. Negotiations with the GOZ to distribute C-
SAFE cereals and WFP beans in three more districts of
concern are on-going.


14. In January, with the opening of a new school
term, the emergency school feeding program expanded
into more of the food insecure rural areas. This
expansion will assure that more than one million
school children receive a meal of fortified porridge,
made from corn soy blend and oil, each school day.
The program encourages all children aged 3-14, even
those who are not enrolled in school, to come to eat
porridge.

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Politicization of Food
--------------


15. Although allegations of politicized food
distribution by the GOZ have declined in the past
year, the last few months have seen several credible
reports in this regard. The local media has carried
a number of prominent reports that the GMB is
restricting access to food based on party
affiliation. There are also reports of direct
distribution of free food by candidates in the ZANU-
PF primaries for the upcoming parliamentary
elections.


16. We have not heard any reports of political
interference with the one-off distribution of WFP
stocks that took place in December. In January
however, World Vision encountered problems with
political groups trying to use seed distribution
gatherings as opportunities to campaign. To address
this problem, World Vision decided, in conjunction
with provincial and district authorities of
Matebeleland South: to distribute mostly from
schools, to avoid weekend distributions, to always
inform the police in advance of distributions, and to
assure that there is a representative of the District
Social Welfare Department present at each
distribution.


17. As the parliamentary elections approach, NGOs
expect that their access to the rural populations
will become more restricted -- either by mandate or
for security reasons. This week, our local Food
Monitor was advised by a district government official
not to go into an area where he had hoped to travel
for the purpose of assessing the current food
security situation because of political tension in
the area.

--------------
Is There a Crisis?
--------------


18. The NGOs working in Zimbabwe have not reported
any evidence to support press reports of deaths due
to food shortages. However, there is concern that
mortality has increased in the HIV/AIDS-infected
population because of the more rapid progression of
the infection when diets are inadequate.


19. NGO-conducted surveys indicate that most
households, even in food insecure areas, were still
managing over the past two months to feed their
families, albeit with some difficulty. In districts
of poor production where low household stocks were
reported in December, a survey of school children
showed that in November the large majority of
children said they had eaten at least three meals the
previous day (including their school meal). A
slightly smaller majority also said they had not felt
hungry during the previous week. The bottom line:
while hunger is increasing and the high HIV
prevalence rate (24.6%) will likely increase
mortality, we have not yet reached a point where
starvation is looming. Post will continue to monitor
the situation closely and report periodically.

DELL