MDC WINS BULAWAYO MAYORAL POLL

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001146

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC WINS BULAWAYO MAYORAL POLL


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Eric T. Schultz under Section 1.4 b/d

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Election Results
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1. (U) In an August 13 election, Bulawayo MDC Mayor Japhet
Ndabeni-Ncube retained his mayoral seat over ZANU-PF
challenger Dickson Solman Abu Basuthu by a margin of 29,575
to 5,509. Barely ten percent of Bulawayo,s 331,447
registered voters cast ballots.

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ZESN Observations
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2. (C) Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN),Information
Officer Ellen Kandororo told us on August 16 that ZESN had
deployed 17 observers to cover the election. She said they
had reported a relatively high proportion of voters having
been turned away, usually for being in the wrong ward.
Kandororo criticized the GOZ and both parties for failing to
conduct adequate voter education for the voters prior to the
election. She took each party to task further for the lack
of interest each had shown in this election. Kandororo said
she ran into a high-ranking MDC official who was unaware of
the fact that there was an election in Bulawayo during the
weekend.


3. (C) Kandororo said ZESN had enjoyed a good working
relationship with GOZ officials throughout the election and
commended the Election Supervisory Committee and the Zimbabwe
Election Commission for their performance in Bulawayo.
Kandororo reported further, however, that two months before
the election ZESN had received a letter from the ZEC
requesting information about all sources of its funding. She
noted that new prohibitions against foreign funding for voter
education had prevented ZESN from conducting voter education
in this election; the NGO is looking for local sponsors to
support such efforts in the future.

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Comment
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4. (C) This election result says less about the MDC,s
stature than it does about Ndabeni-Ncube,s personal
popularity in the city and the depth of Ndebele (Zimbabwe,s
leading minority tribe, dominant in Matabeleland) resentment
of the ruling party. While ZANU-PF has shown itself capable
of rigging municipal elections in the past, Bulawayo would
have been a bridge too far for a party burdened by many other
competing priorities. In any event, ZANU-PF was reluctant to
use resources for an election that it believed it would lose.
The GOZ will nonetheless continue at every turn to hamstring
the city government,s capacity to deliver to constituencies
and bring credit to the opposition. The MDC leadership,s
inattention to municipal governance, which the opposition
controls in most of Zimbabwe,s urban areas, is a
long-standing shortcoming.
SCHULTZ