THE TWENTY-YEAR REVIEW OF VIETNAM'S DOI MOI POLICY

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SUBJECT: THE TWENTY-YEAR REVIEW OF VIETNAM'S DOI MOI POLICY

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1. (SBU) Summary: In remarks prepared for a conference
reviewing Vietnam's "Doi Moi" or "renovation" policy after
twenty years, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung
emphasized the political/social component of the policy and
the importance of the Community Party in the process of
reform. He also outlined three criteria by which Vietnam's
progress on "Doi Moi" should be judged. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The Vietnamese Academy of Social Sciences, the
United Nations Development Program, and the Swedish
International Development Cooperation Agency hosted their
third meeting this year on December 15-16 to review the
progress of Vietnam's "Doi Moi" policy. (NOTE: For
ideological reasons, the Vietnamese authorities avoid using
the terms "economic," "political" or "social" reform.
Instead they use "Doi Moi" or "renovation." See comment in
para 5. End note.) Most of the conference speakers were
drawn from Western academic communities or "think tank"
institutions; they gave presentations on everything from the
future relevance of ASEAN and gender differences in Vietnam
to the larger socio-economic forces that effect
globalization and post-communist transition. They did not
specifically address the progress of Vietnam's "Doi Moi"
policy, which opened the country to outside development in
the early 1990s.


3. (SBU) Vietnamese government officials present at the
conference only offered welcoming remarks. However, they
did distribute in English the ranking Deputy Prime Minister
(DPM) Nguyen Tan Dzung's Executive Summary of the "Doi Moi"
Conference and its goals. DPM Dzung's Executive Summary, in
contrast to the international speakers, dealt specifically
with the progress and success of "Doi Moi" policy. In it,
he noted that there are seven "lessons learned" from the
"Doi Moi" experience that Vietnam still needs to fully
assimilate: 1) to persevere in the goal of national
independence and socialism; 2) to be comprehensive; 3) to
base Doi Moi on political and social stability; 4) to serve
the interests of the people, rely on the people and be
responsive to new ideas; 5) to base Doi Moi on domestic
resources and make the best of outside resources; 6) to
uphold the leading role and capacity of the Community Party
of Vietnam; and, 7) to bring into full play the strength of
the whole united nation.


4. (SBU) Dzung's concluded his paper by noting that "Doi
Moi," which was supposed to transform a command economy into
a socialist-oriented market economy, should be judged on
three criteria. First, to what extent has the delegation of
public services and the scope and scale of government
intervention in the market actually changed? Second, where
is the public sector working well and how can public
institutions work together? Third, how well has the
Government managed the social change that comes with
economic development, identifying and responding to the
changing aspirations of the population as they become
wealthier?


5. (SBU) Comment: Dzung's executive summary was notable for
three reasons. First, the DPM established the most concise
and useful measure of any presented at the conference of
Vietnam's success with "Doi Moi." Secondly, he was the only
forum participant to address a key aspect of "Doi Moi" that
is often forgotten by international observers: although it
promotes economic development, "Doi Moi" is essentially a
policy of political and social control aimed at preserving
and legitimizing Communist party rule. Thirdly, the DPM
noted that "lessons learned" from "Doi Moi" had yet to be
"absorbed" by the Government of Vietnam (GVN) and others
involved in drafting the next Five-Year Plan, suggesting
that he believes the true goals of the policy have been
somewhat forgotten in these years of rapid economic growth.
Although it is likely that Dzung is currently striving to
appear more ideologically conservative in the run-up to next
year's Party Congress (like many other party officials),his
reminder that "Doi Moi" is fundamentally an effort to
maintain the Community Party's supremacy in Vietnam suggests
that we will not likely see significant politically
liberalizing reform led by the Party despite the burgeoning
economy. End Comment.

MARINE